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Chicago Cubs: PECOTA released, Cubs get a mixed bag
Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA, a sabermetric prediction of what the future season holds. While the Chicago Cubs are picked to win the division, it’s hard to get onboard with some of these numbers.
It’s that time of year again. Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA, and it feels like we can start talking about baseball. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is BP’s standard sabermetric system and is marketed as a fantasy baseball product. But often, the numbers will line up with how a player finishes, giving some credence to the system.
In the case of the Cubs, PECOTA has them winning 89 games; five wins ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Milwaukee Brewers were six games behind the Cubs, even with all that they added this offseason. Granted, this won’t account for any of the top-tier free agents left to be signed. So these “predictions” could shift wildly if a team was to get someone like Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.
No big surprises on offense
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The Cubs’ offense doesn’t have a single everyday player hitting .300. The closest to it? Willson Contreras with a .284. What’s more surprising is he beats out Kris Bryant (.281) and even Anthony Rizzo (.262) who finishes fourth behind Albert Almora (.272). If we’re going to hear anything about these numbers, it’s that Almora should be in the leadoff spot. Still to be determined, but he very well may get his chance.
Javier Baez sees his average tumble almost 20 points down to a .253. In all honesty, I think Baez will improve at the plate this season. Whether or not that stands to see a better average, I do see him being more patient and finishing around a .270 average.
A trim Schwarber sees results?
When it comes to a bounce-back season, Kyle Schwarber takes the cake on that one. They’ve got Schwarber hitting 33 home runs and driving in 85. His .243 average is about where it should be, but I feel like he may hit a little bit higher than that. I hope that as good a shape as he’s gotten himself into, it’ll translate into extra hits. But we’ll see.
Happy PECOTA Day! If you're ready to dive into this year's projections, click here to get started: https://t.co/sHrogvDRqt
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) February 7, 2018
Bryant and Rizzo each finish with 30 home runs, and Rizzo is the only player forecasted with over 90 RBI at 98. Jason Heyward would finish the season about where you might expect. A .263 average with 11 home runs and 52 RBI. I’m hoping to see a more significant gain from this, but at this point, I’ll take it. It’s not necessarily what we hoped for with this contract. But this and a Gold Glove and we’ll call it a win.
I say no–to almost all of this
When it comes to pitching, this is where I don’t agree with what the PECOTA forecasts. Jon Lester leads the team in wins with 13. Kyle Hendricks is second with 12 and Jose Quintana with 12. Even Mike Montgomery (as it stands now) wins more games than Tyler Chatwood. Meh, I don’t see that happening.
When it comes to the new additions, including the return of Brian Duensing–the numbers don’t look that good. Duensing finishes with a 4.95 ERA, much higher than his 2017 season. Steve Cishek posts a 4.39, while Dario Alvarez a 4.78. A stat that might surprise you? Justin Wilson and his 3.17 ERA. That’s about where he should be, but not based off of last year. Here’s to hoping.
And finally, closer Brandon Morrow puts up 30 saves but posts a 4.24 ERA. It’s not unheard of that he might put up these types of numbers, especially since he’s new to the role. There may be some growing pains that come with it.
Next: Cubs release 2018 broadcast schedule
The PECOTA predictions are nothing more than a “guess,” using sabermetrics as their guide. It can’t take in a breakout season because that’s something it doesn’t have to go off of. Plus, with so many free agents unsigned, these numbers are likely to change. The Cubs should win the division, even with the additions made by the Cardinals and the Brewers. But it will be close according to these numbers, even if I don’t agree with them.