Chicago Cubs: A back-end starter won't cut it this time around

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LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 01: Yu Darvish #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts in the first inning against the Houston Astros in game seven of the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium on November 1, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /

With free agency moving at a snail’s pace, the Chicago Cubs can – and should – remain patient. They can no longer settle for lesser acquisitions.

With the New York Mets’ reported signing of free agent third baseman Todd Frazier on Monday, everyone – including the Chicago Cubs – can hope a thaw is coming. We’re not talking about temperatures, either. Free agency continues to proceed slower than ever, leaving almost every big-name free agent on the market in the first week of February.

As for Chicago, they still need one more starting pitcher. Sure, Mike Montgomery could fill that void. At certain points this offseason, I actually felt like that may be a more prudent option. We know guys like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta are likely seeking nine-figure deals. With a historic free agent class on the horizon at season’s end, teams are hoarding money like never before in attempts to sneak under the luxury tax threshold.

But I am no longer of that mindset. Allowing someone like Montgomery to round out the rotation isn’t an answer. It’s a cop-out. As would be a low-end signing such as Chris Tillman. Nothing against either guy, but we’re past the point of depending on reclamation projects and converted arms.

Chicago is seeking an unprecedented fourth-straight NLCS appearance in 2018. To achieve that goal, the Cubs will likely have to go head-to-head with the Los Angeles Dodgers or Washington Nationals. Whichever one they don’t meet in the Division Series seems probable to be waiting in the LCS.

And, simply put, without another impact starter, the Cubs enter such matchups at a disadvantage – at least in terms of starting pitching.

Nats, Dodgers outclass Cubs – at least on paper

Washington will trot out the formidable trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez in a postseason series. The first two are annual Cy Young contenders, while Gonzalez remains one of the most underrated left-handers in the National League.

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Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ rotation is loaded with depth. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw leads the pack, followed by a combination of Rich Hill, Alex Wood and either Kenta Maeda or Hyun-Jin Ryu. But, at least for argument’s sake, let’s focus on the three lefties.

Wood, Kershaw and Hill combined for a 10.6 WAR in 2017. Kershaw finished in the Top 5 in National League Cy Young voting for the seventh-straight year while Wood and Hill gave the Dodgers the rotation strength needed to reach the World Series.

The Nationals’ trio was even better, coming in with a 14.9 WAR between their top three starters. Scherzer alone put up a 6.0 WAR in 2017, en route to his second-straight National League Cy Young Award. Both the Dodgers and Nats have a bona fide ace atop the rotation – and you have to wonder if the Cubs really have someone of that caliber.

CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 14: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after throwing a pitch to Gerrit Cole #45 of the Pittsburgh Pirates (not pictured) during the second inning at Wrigley Field on April 14, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) /

Cubs starters need to step up in 2018

Personally, I’m a huge Kyle Hendricks guy. He’s not flashy and doesn’t feature the repertoire of Kershaw or Mad Max, but this guy gets the job done. He’s as consistent as any Cubs starters we’ve seen in decades and, again, is criminally under appreciated in Chicago and across baseball.

But let’s assume he’s your ace (as I believe he is as the rotation currently stands).

Behind the soft-tossing right-hander, Chicago turns to veteran lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana. Between the three of them, they totaled just a 7.2 WAR – less than half of what Washington’s three-headed monster put up last season.

Adding Yu Darvish (3.5 WAR) to that mix would make him the Cubs’ highest WAR pitcher – based on last year’s performance. Now, to be sure, I expect a more stable Jon Lester in 2018 – but his best days are probably behind him. I also understand that comparing rotations using only WAR is not a fair assessment and there is a lot more that goes into evaluation in today’s game.

But I think it makes a good point, as well. Chicago boasts one of the most potent position player cores in all of Major League Baseball. Not supplementing that with a top-tier rotation worthy of going head-to-head with Washington and Los Angeles would be a travesty of the highest level.

Next: Here's how the Cubs should line up in 2018

Mike Montgomery and Chris Tillman are fine big league pitchers. But as rotation members, they don’t get you a World Series championship. And, make no mistake, that’s what this Cubs team is all about in 2018.

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Chicago Cubs: A back-end starter won’t cut it this time around

With free agency moving at a snail’s pace, the Chicago Cubs can – and should – remain patient. They can no longer settle for lesser acquisitions.

Nats, Dodgers outclass Cubs – at least on paper

More from Cubbies Crib

Cubs starters need to step up in 2018

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