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Chicago Cubs: Making the case for Anthony Rizzo leading off in 2018

By Jake Misener |
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 09: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs looks on from the dugout before game three of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on October 9, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 09: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs looks on from the dugout before game three of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on October 9, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

The Chicago Cubs need someone to set the table atop the batting order. When it comes down to it, there’s no one I trust more than Anthony Rizzo.

Last year, despite scoring the second-most runs in the National League, the Chicago Cubs offense never really seemed to click. They had their stretches, to be sure. But the sheer dominance we saw during 2016 was nowhere to be found.

I believe a big reason for their on-and-off struggles lies atop the order. Unlike when Dexter Fowler led off on a near-daily basis, the leadoff spot experienced constant turnover in 2017. Kyle Schwarber was supposed to be the guy. Instead, he earned a demotion to Triple-A Iowa and Joe Maddon moved on.

But one guy who had tremendous success in the one-hole? First baseman Anthony Rizzo. Now, I know. To entertain this proposal, you’re all going to have to move past the typical leadoff hitter mold you’ve crafted over the years.

Speedy. A constant threat on the bases. Wrong. That’s not what makes a good leadoff hitter.

A quality table-setter does two things. He gets on-base at a high clip and he battles in each and every at-bat. And, looking at Chicago’s current roster makeup, there is no one who fits that bill as well as Rizzo.

PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 12: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs prepares to take batting practice prior to a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 12, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 12: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs prepares to take batting practice prior to a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 12, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Rizzo is willing to sacrifice for the team

Last season, Anthony Rizzo was hit by 24 pitches – most in all of Major League Baseball. Since 2015, the Cubs’ first baseman has racked up 70 hit-by-pitches. In a still very young career, he ranks in the Top 100 all-time in the category.

Now, I’m not saying this makes him a good leadoff hitter. But it’s the mentality he shows in each and every at-bat. Rizzo carries a .388 on-base percentage over the last three years into 2018. He works counts better than any hitter in the lineup and, if opponents think they’re going to groove one in to get ahead, he’s liable to take them deep.

His plate discipline and two-strike approach speak for themselves. Last year, he drew 91 walks in 157 games. While that may not impress you, the fact he whiffed only 90 times should. He walked more than he struck out. That fact, in today’s strikeout-laden game, is more impressive than ever. Especially when you consider his incredible power stroke, as well.

For the last four seasons, Rizzo has hit at least 30 home runs. Putting him atop the order serves a similar purpose to what Maddon hoped Schwarber would last year. Sure, he can work the count and draw walks. But he can spark an offense if he sees just one mistake from an opposing starter.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 07: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run homerun against the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 07: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run homerun against the Washington Nationals in the fourth inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Rizzo is ready to ambush at a moment’s notice

Here’s the thing about Anthony Rizzo.

If you fall behind him in the count, he’s going to make you pay. It’s as simple as that, really. Let’s look at some numbers from last season, shall we?

  • 1-0 counts: .471/.513/1.118
  • 2-0 counts: .333/.333/1.111
  • 3-0 counts: .000/.889/.000
  • First pitch: .339/.391/.763

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Those are some impressive numbers. In 3-0 counts last year, Rizzo did not strike out – not once – while drawing 24 walks. And, granted, opponents are going to try to work around him more often than not. But, more often than not, you don’t just fall into such a good count. It takes grinding an at-bat out to get here – and Rizzo excels in this area.

When he faces a 3-1 count, Rizzo reaches in just under 90 percent of his plate appearances. If he can work the count full, his OBP is north of .500. Those are odds I like, to be honest.

I’ll admit – his numbers when behind in the count aren’t exactly eye-popping. But he’s also one of the only players on this roster willing and able to shorten up and choke up on the bat in such situations.

So how would this hypothetical lineup look?

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Tommy La Stella aCHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Tommy La Stella #2 (L), Jason Heyward #22 (C), and Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs walk across the field before game four of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Tommy La Stella aCHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Tommy La Stella #2 (L), Jason Heyward #22 (C), and Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs walk across the field before game four of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Will Joe Maddon ever have a ‘regular’ lineup?

Now, after three years of watching Joe Maddon fill out a lineup card, we all know anything is possible. Even cornerstone guys like Kris Bryant play multiple positions and hit in multiple spots in the order.

That being said, for argument sake, let’s try and break this down. Moving Rizzo to the leadoff spot leaves a big hole in the middle of the order. Getting production from the supporting cast is the only way this works.

  1. Anthony Rizzo – 1B
  2. Albert Almora – CF
  3. Kris Bryant – 3B
  4. Willson Contreras – C
  5. Kyle Schwarber – LF
  6. Javier Baez – 2B
  7. Jason Heyward – RF
  8. Addison Russell – SS
  9. Kyle Hendricks – P

The linchpin in all this? Continued development from both Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. Contreras likely would have seen MVP votes had he not missed major time with an injury. Schwarber, meanwhile, improved after returning from Iowa. But he was far from what the Cubs hoped and expected for.

Albert Almora will have to show he’s capable of working counts, as well. He drew just 19 walks in 130-plus games last year – so it’s anybody’s guess how well he will adjust. Even without the walks, he did hit .298 with a .338 OBP – which is far from an issue.

Next: Bourjos signing is exactly what the Cubs needed

No one knows how this spring will play out. But there’s no one I believe in more than Anthony Rizzo. I trust him to not fall victim to what claimed Schwarber last year. In the leadoff spot, his mentality and maturity would serve him well, giving the Cubs a dangerous weapon atop the batting order.

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