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Chicago Cubs: Despite flashy additions by Brewers, Cubs still reign in Central
The MLB hot stove was officially ignited once again, as a division rival has set it ablaze. While the Chicago Cubs still field a fantastic young group of positional players, they soon could find themselves challenged by a new foe.
In 2017 the Chicago Cubs once again reigned supreme in the National League Central as they finished 92-70 on their way to a second straight division title. It was the third consecutive year in which the club ended with 90-plus wins.
Close on their heels all season long was the surprisingly strong Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers ultimately finished six games behind the Cubs, but still made sure to pose a challenge for much of 2017.
On Thursday, the Brewers shocked the MLB completing a blockbuster deal to acquire All-Star outfielder Christian Yelich. On Friday, in addition to Yelich, the Brewers went one step further to bolster their line-up and signed free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain to a massive 5-year, $80 million deal. Indeed Milwaukee has become the belle of the ball regarding hot-stove movement.
As a result, the Milwaukee Brewers hope to build on what they accomplished in 2017. The Cubs are still reign supreme in the National League Central, of course, but with the recent moves its time to examine how the two clubs stack up next to each other.
A corner infield duo to remember
To say that the corner infield duo of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant
are good is a severe understatement. In fact, to say this pair is excellent is still not enough praise to the job these two have done for the team.
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Since he stepped into the full-time first base role in 2013, Anthony Rizzo has been a Top-5 player. Over that span he has been worth 22.1 total Wins Above Replacement, averaging 30 home runs and 90 runs batted per year in that span. With Rizzo you know you will get consistent production, especially since he does not miss many games.
Kris Bryant has also been arguably the best third basemen in the game since making his debut. Since his call-up in 2015 Bryant has been worth, a total of 21.5 Wins Above Replacement, winning Rookie of the Year. In 2016 he added hardware to his collection, as he took home the Most Valuable Player award after posting a .292/.385/.554 line with 39 home runs and a 146 wRC+. Behind Mike Trout, Kris Bryant may be the best player in baseball.
Return, and emergence
The Brewers took a chance on former journeyman Eric Thames upon his return from Korea in 2017 and signed him to a major league contract. They also acquired for Boston third basemen, Travis Shaw. One returned while one emerged.
Thames started the year on fire, at one point homering in five straight ballgames. In the first two weeks of the season, he slugged .921. Ultimately he cooled way off batting just .246 with eight home runs in the second half. Thames also posted a 29.6 K%. Despite his low average he still surprisingly found himself worth 2.1 Wins Above Replacement and slugged .516, which set a career high.
Travis Shaw consequently found his swing in 2017 as well. Shaw slashed .273/.349/.513 on his way to a career-high 3.4 Wins Above Replacement, besting his previous two seasons combined while in Boston. Shaw also posted a career-high wRC+ of 119.
By and large, the duo of Rizzo and Bryant is untouchable. To logically compare the likes of Travis Shaw and Eric Thames is insulting to baseball fans everywhere.
Verdict: Cubs in a landslide
Can’t touch this
The middle infield duo of Javier Baez and Addison Russell is by far one of the best in the game. They combined to hit 35 home runs and posted a combined 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs.
Meanwhile, the Brewers middle infield combination of speedster Jonathan Villar
and Orlando Arcia hit a combined 26 home runs and were only worth a combined 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, per Fangraphs.
Comparatively, Addison Russell played in just 110 games last season posting an 84 wRC+. His positional divisional counterpart Orlando Arcia finished his campaign with an 85 wRC+ in 153 games.
Given these points, it does not seem to be as close a positional race as thought after all. The Cubs do need Russell to be healthy in 2018 and to produce, but even with the down year last year, this position comparison isn’t close.
Verdict: Cubs
A young star has emerged for the Chicago Cubs
Mark my words: Willson Contreras will be the best catcher in Major League Baseball.
At just 25-years-old, Contreras has a long and probably colorful career ahead of him. In 2017, he took another step forward to solidify his status as the next most significant star. Contreras posted a 3.2 Wins Above Replacement, including a 1.4 Defensive Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. He slashed .276/.356/.499 and produced a 119 wRC+.
It is important to realize he did this in just 117 games. Contreras also has arguably the strongest arm in Major League Baseball and frequently shows it off with quick pick attempts. Contreras plays the game with a fiery passion, something that it seems you need to have to be a catcher.
As his career continues to progress it will be fun to see the pinnacle in which he will hopefully one day reach. Accordingly, he is well on his way.
Mediocrity in Milwaukee
Comparatively, it is difficult to put the Brewers backstop(s) on the same plane as Willson Contreras. Nevertheless, it is essential to see what kind of impact the combination of veterans Manny Pina and Stephen Vogt will bring to the Brewers in 2018.
Pina was surprisingly productive in 2017. He was worth 2 Wins Above Replacement and slashed .279/.327/.424 in 107 games. Vogt meanwhile was worth -0.5 Wins Above Replacement in 99 games split between the A’s and the Brewers. He slashed .233/.285/.423.
Keeping in mind, it makes sense that Manny Pina will be the go-to guy for Milwaukee in 2018. In the final positional analysis, even with his numbers last season, it is important to realize that the Cubs carry an almost laughable advantage in the area.
Verdict: Cubs
(Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Schwarber, Heyward need to find their swing for the Cubs
Despite batting just .211 last season, Kyle Schwarber still managed 30 home runs and 1.5 Wins Above Replacement. Notwithstanding, it is immediate Schwarber return to form in 2018.
Arguably 2017 was Schwaber’s first full season in the majors. He played 69 games after his call-up in 2015, but only played two games in 2016 before tearing his ACL and MCL in his knee. He did make a surprisingly heroic return in time for October and was a catalyst in helping the Cubs to their first world title in 108 years.
According to Fangraphs, Schwarber is projected for 1.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2018 so with this in mind it is imperative he can return to form.
Chicago Cubs
Jason Heyward is another important piece for 2018. Heyward has been worth only 2.4 Wins Above Replacement since joining the Cubs in 2015. What he has lacked in offense, expressly, he more than makes up with his gold-glove caliber defense and his public speaking. His infamous speech before the 10th inning of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series will carry a mystical allure with it as one of the all-time greatest.
It is essential to remember speeches don’t produce statistical results, and the Cubs need J-Hey to be a driving force in the line-up.
Heyward is capable of a productive season. His 27 home runs in 2012 were a career high, and Cubs fans hope he returns to that form.
Currently, Albert Almora is the best outfielder the Chicago Cubs have. In 2017, Almora slashed .298/.338/.445 posting 1.2 Wins Above Replacement and a 103 wRC+. Almora is currently slated to start in center field and is an intriguing piece in the lineup who could be a great help for the team in 2018.
The Brew Crew Bombers
Three days ago the Brewers outfield was above average but nothing to scoff at. My how things can change in the blink of an eye.
In a couple of days, Milwaukee went from an outfield of Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Danny Santana to now an outfield of Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, and Christian Yelich. The upgrade is night and day.
If there is one area in the lineup in which the Brewers possess an advantage, it is precisely the outfield. Even though Braun had a down season in 2017, he is still a dangerous bat.
Cain, meanwhile, makes his return to Milwaukee where he played from 2006-2010. He had a fantastic 2017, worth 4.1 Wins Above Replacement and batting .300 with an uptick in both home runs and runs batted in.
There is nothing that needs stating about Christian Yelich. Yelich has been worth 17.2 total Wins Above Replacement since making his major league debut. Miller Park will help play to his production, and he should be a guy close to the 30/100 mark in 2018.
Verdict: Brewers take the cake
Cubs hold the positional advantage – but the Brewers are creeping up
Apart from the outfield positions, the Chicago Cubs are much more dominant all around than the Brewers. The likes of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain will undoubtedly help the Brewers bats out offensively, but guys like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are the decisive factors in why the Cubs are better and will stay better.
Next: Believe it or not, Theo has this under control
Hopefully, guys like Schwarber and Heyward can finally put it all together. If they can do that, the Brewers can keep dreaming about reigning supreme in the National League Central for the future.
Conversely, with the addition of Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals, the National League Central could soon become the most exciting division in Major League Baseball.