Chicago Cubs: A reunion with Jake Arrieta is a must

The Chicago Cubs have put together a solid rotation for 2018, but adding Jake Arrieta would push it over the top

The calendar has now flipped to 2018 and Chicago Cubs‘ baseball is not too far away. Still, before the Cubs or any other team can take the field this spring, this year’s free agent class needs to be sorted out.

Right now, big-name free agents like Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta headline the starting pitching market. As spring continues to draw nearer, the asking price for these free agents will no doubt fall as players prepare for the upcoming season. With that in mind, signing Jake Arrieta is no longer out of the picture.

Prior to the 2017 season and at times during the season, it was understood that Arrieta and his agent Scott Boras would be seeking a $200 million contract this winter. However, with only weeks left until the 2018 season, that asking price has been reduced.

Now, it seems as if the Cubs could get Arrieta on a four-year deal worth around $100 million. That is a far cry away from the five- to six-year deal and $200 million that was floated around previously.

If I’m the Cubs, and I’m not, I would gladly bring Arrieta back on a four-year, $100-110 million deal and here’s why.

Last season was not a terrible year for Arrieta

The three years prior to the 2017 season for Arrieta were off the charts. From 2014 to 2016, Arrieta went 50-19 with a 2.42 ERA and 593 strikeouts in 583 innings pitched. In addition to that, Arrieta logged an ERA+ of 162 and averaged 9.2 strikeouts per game.

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Over that great run, Arrieta won a Cy Young award and finished in the top ten in voting all three years.

Arrieta’s 2017 performance was rather solid

Because of that success, many people think Arrieta’s 2017 season was a failure. Well, I am here to tell that if you feel that way, you are wrong. It’s easy to look at Arrieta’s first three months of the 2017 campaign and see regression.

In April, May and June, Arrieta logged ERA’s north of 4.50 each month. Despite that, Arrieta settled down in the second half of the season, posting sub-3.00 ERA in July and August.

What resulted from that rough first half was a 3.53 ERA for the season over 168 1/3 innings pitched. Even though that ERA is higher than the previous three seasons, Arrieta still amassed a 123 ERA+, well above league average. In addition to maintaining a solid ERA+, Arrieta improved upon his strikeout rate from 2016. After walking 3.47 batters per nine in 2016, Arrieta bested that by posting a 2.94 mark in 2017.

Along with his improved walk rate, Arrieta also improved his strikeout rate from 2016. That number inched up from 8.67 in 2016 to 8.71 in 2017.

Arrieta was a bit unlucky in 2017

People tend to stay away from talking about luck when proving the worth and skill set of a player. However, I think it’s important to note that there is a certain luck factor that comes along with the game of baseball. For that reason, let’s look at plate discipline for batters against Arrieta in 2017.

In 2017, 27.9% of the pitches Arrieta threw outside of the strike zone were swung at. That number was the lowest mark of Arrieta’s career and could be a sign of increasing batter patience. Let’s dig a little further.

If you look at the overall swing percentage, you would find it down from 45.3% in 2016 to 43.7% in 2017. Along with that, only 61% of pitches Arrieta threw in the strike zone were swung at, down from 65% a year ago.

While Arrieta saw a decrease in the number of swings against his pitches in 2017, he saw an increased amount of contact, both inside and outside the strike zone. On pitches thrown out of the strike zone, batters made contact 67% of the time, spiking from 60.6% in 2016. While the percentage of chase contact increased rather heavily, contact on pitches inside the zone increased less than one percentage point from 2016 to 2017.

There is no doubt Arrieta is one of the wilder pitchers in baseball. In 2017, he tossed 14 wild pitches and hit ten batters. That wildness could account of the decrease in chase swings.

However, that seven percent increase in contact on balls outside the strike zone has me wondering if Arrieta suffered from a touch of bad luck in 2017.