Chicago Cubs will get their man for the rotation

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CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 17: Yu Darvish #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers stretches before game three of the National League Championship Series against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on October 17, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

Make no mistake. Despite the lengthy waiting game, the Chicago Cubs will get the man they want to round out the rotation before Spring Training opens.

Despite the fervent panic gripping fans on social media, things are all systems go for the Chicago Cubs this offseason. They got a much-needed starter in Tyler Chatwood, locking up the right-hander on a three-year deal.

In the bullpen, they added multiple pieces, as well. Steve Cishek and Brandon Morrow joined on two-year contracts. More depth moves have taken place since then – adding pieces to the mix just over a month from pitchers and catchers reporting. But that last big domino is yet to fall.

The top three free agent starting pitchers are still available in Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb. When the winter began, Cobb seemed like a sure-fire signing for Chicago. Since then, we’ve heard multiple reports about an increased asking price. Which, in turn, led to reinvigorated interest in the other two names.

Arrieta represents the known. He turned his career around with the Cubs, winning a Cy Young Award and emerging as a fan favorite. Darvish, meanwhile, struggled in the World Series but remains one of the best hurlers in the game today.

But here’s the kicker in it all. When it comes down to it, no matter the date, the Chicago Cubs will get their guy. With the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers eyeing the luxury tax limits ahead of 2018, Chicago is the big dog at the food bowl.

So, one more time, let’s go over the top three options.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: (EDITOR’S NOTE: Multiple exposures were combined in-camera to produce this image.) Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game four of the National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

Chicago got everything from Jake – does he have more?

Right-hander Jake Arrieta was a stud for the Cubs. His second half of 2015 ranks as one of the best stretches any starting pitcher has put together in baseball history. Of course, that ultimately netted him the National League Cy Young Award.

But since then, numbers trended downward.

I broke all this down yesterday in a piece, but there’s one bit I wanted to re-share here:

Last season, Arrieta put up a 4.16 FIP in 30 starts spanning just 168 1/3 innings. That, by far, is his worst full-season mark in a Cubs uniform. Since 2014, that figure climbed annually from 2.26 to 2.35 to 3.52 before arriving at last year’s 4.16. His WHIP also increased over that same span – from a low of 0.865 in 2015 to a high in 2017 of 1.218.

In short, things aren’t headed in the right direction. At least not when Scott Boras reportedly seeks a six-year deal north of $100 million. Since then, it seems the asking price may have dropped – but it’s still nothing to scoff at.

The nine-figure question is this: do you believe Jake Arrieta can recapture what made him a Cy Young winner. Do you trust him to be that guy on a consistent basis? Because that’s what the Cubs need.

Is Darvish the missing piece to the puzzle?

Everyone remembers one thing from Yu Darvish’s 2017 season – his Fall Classic implosion.

Since then, it appears he tipped his pitches against the Astros. And this isn’t the first time it’s been an issue, either. Not even in the last calendar year. All told, though, he made 31 starts between Texas and Los Angeles last season.

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Similar to Arrieta, things could be headed in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, only time carries the answer to that question. Since 2013, Darvish’s earned run average has climbed from 2.83 to 3.86, respectively. He’s eclipsed more than 200 innings just one time in his career – but has continued to rack up the strikeouts and limit the walks.

The Japanese-born right-hander turns 32 next August. Is he worth a six or seven-year deal? I can tell you this. It won’t be in a Chicago Cubs uniform at those terms.

But if you can reel him in on a four-year contract? The Cubs could boast one of the most potent rotations in the game for years to come.

ST. PETERSBURG, FL – JULY 26: Alex Cobb #53 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on July 26, 2017 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /

A more modestly priced option this winter?

For years, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the model for developing in-house pitching. And after adding several of their in-house people to the mix in Chicago, the Cubs are hoping to replicate that success in the long-term.

But in the meantime? Why not add a guy they’re intimately familiar with in Alex Cobb? When the offseason began, the right-hander reportedly sought a four-year, $60 million deal. Since then, however, his demands reportedly spiked to $20 million annually – on a deal potentially spanning five years, not four.

Last season, Cobb put up a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts for Tampa. His 4.16 FIP left a little to be desired, especially at a $20 million AAV asking price. But over his career, he’s been a solid middle-of-the-rotation piece. And the thing is – the Cubs don’t need another ace. They arguably have three of them already in Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.

Adding Cobb to that mix, along with Chatwood? The Cubs are set. Instead of throwing $100-plus million at Arrieta or Darvish, this might make more sense. But, again, rumors are swirling. Cobb may not sign until both pitchers are off the board – which, to be frank, seems unlikely without the Cubs taking one of them.

Next: Will Machado rumors end up hurting Cubs' pursuit?

The next month will be interesting, to say the least. Can the Twins get a meeting with Darvish and convince him to come to Minneapolis? Hard to say. But the power landscape could drastically shift based on where these three land.

One thing remains certain: if the Cubs deem the terms worthy, they’ll get the man they want.

Home / Chicago Cubs News

Chicago Cubs will get their man for the rotation – it’s a matter of time

Make no mistake. Despite the lengthy waiting game, the Chicago Cubs will get the man they want to round out the rotation before Spring Training opens.

Chicago got everything from Jake – does he have more?

Is Darvish the missing piece to the puzzle?

More from Cubbies Crib

A more modestly priced option this winter?

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