Chicago Cubs will get their man for the rotation – it’s a matter of time

Chicago got everything from Jake – does he have more?

Right-hander Jake Arrieta was a stud for the Cubs. His second half of 2015 ranks as one of the best stretches any starting pitcher has put together in baseball history. Of course, that ultimately netted him the National League Cy Young Award.

But since then, numbers trended downward.

I broke all this down yesterday in a piece, but there’s one bit I wanted to re-share here:

Last season, Arrieta put up a 4.16 FIP in 30 starts spanning just 168 1/3 innings. That, by far, is his worst full-season mark in a Cubs uniform. Since 2014, that figure climbed annually from 2.26 to 2.35 to 3.52 before arriving at last year’s 4.16. His WHIP also increased over that same span – from a low of 0.865 in 2015 to a high in 2017 of 1.218.

In short, things aren’t headed in the right direction. At least not when Scott Boras reportedly seeks a six-year deal north of $100 million. Since then, it seems the asking price may have dropped – but it’s still nothing to scoff at.

The nine-figure question is this: do you believe Jake Arrieta can recapture what made him a Cy Young winner. Do you trust him to be that guy on a consistent basis? Because that’s what the Cubs need.

Is Darvish the missing piece to the puzzle?

Everyone remembers one thing from Yu Darvish’s 2017 season – his Fall Classic implosion.

Since then, it appears he tipped his pitches against the Astros. And this isn’t the first time it’s been an issue, either. Not even in the last calendar year. All told, though, he made 31 starts between Texas and Los Angeles last season.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Similar to Arrieta, things could be headed in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, only time carries the answer to that question. Since 2013, Darvish’s earned run average has climbed from 2.83 to 3.86, respectively. He’s eclipsed more than 200 innings just one time in his career – but has continued to rack up the strikeouts and limit the walks.

The Japanese-born right-hander turns 32 next August. Is he worth a six or seven-year deal? I can tell you this. It won’t be in a Chicago Cubs uniform at those terms.

But if you can reel him in on a four-year contract? The Cubs could boast one of the most potent rotations in the game for years to come.

A more modestly priced option this winter?

For years, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the model for developing in-house pitching. And after adding several of their in-house people to the mix in Chicago, the Cubs are hoping to replicate that success in the long-term.

But in the meantime? Why not add a guy they’re intimately familiar with in Alex Cobb? When the offseason began, the right-hander reportedly sought a four-year, $60 million deal. Since then, however, his demands reportedly spiked to $20 million annually – on a deal potentially spanning five years, not four.

Last season, Cobb put up a 3.66 ERA in 29 starts for Tampa. His 4.16 FIP left a little to be desired, especially at a $20 million AAV asking price. But over his career, he’s been a solid middle-of-the-rotation piece. And the thing is – the Cubs don’t need another ace. They arguably have three of them already in Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.

Adding Cobb to that mix, along with Chatwood? The Cubs are set. Instead of throwing $100-plus million at Arrieta or Darvish, this might make more sense. But, again, rumors are swirling. Cobb may not sign until both pitchers are off the board – which, to be frank, seems unlikely without the Cubs taking one of them.

Next: Will Machado rumors end up hurting Cubs' pursuit?

The next month will be interesting, to say the least. Can the Twins get a meeting with Darvish and convince him to come to Minneapolis? Hard to say. But the power landscape could drastically shift based on where these three land.

One thing remains certain: if the Cubs deem the terms worthy, they’ll get the man they want.