Chicago Cubs: Pitching a focus because it will make the difference in Central

Why are the Chicago Cubs so heavily focused on pitching this offseason? Because if you look around the division, this will be the difference-maker.

Seemingly out of nowhere on Monday, the Chicago Cubs and Yu Darvish became a very feasible pairing as Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer headed to Texas to meet with the right-hander.

MLBTR opened the offseason by predicting Chicago signs Darvish to a six-year, $160 million deal. While that seems like an albatross contract (and it is), it’s widely expected any agreement would come up short of that dollar amount. After adding several arms already, why is adding Darvish such a critical move for the Cubs?

Simple. Because starting pitching could very well decide who wins the National League Central.

The Cardinals boast several impressive young homegrown starters in the mix. Milwaukee is reportedly mulling over former Cubs hurler Jake Arrieta while Cincinnati and Pittsburgh continue their reloading movements with an eye to the future.

Let’s break down what each club looks like heading into the New Year to get a better grasp on what the division looks like.

St. Louis Cardinals’ addition of Ozuna a threat to the Cubs

Last week, the St. Louis Cardinals boosted their offense in a big way, trading for Miami Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna. The Dominican Republic native comes off a 145 OPS+ 2017 campaign in which he slugged 37 homers and drove in 111 for the Fish.

His bat in the muddle of the Cardinals order adds a much-needed power threat amidst the likes of Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter. But, it won’t be Ozuna who decides the Cardinals’ fate. That weight lies on the shoulders of several promising young arms.

Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha headline the Redbirds staff. The former led the team in 2017, breaking 200 innings pitched for the first time. Wacha also made 30 starts, pitching to a 3.63 FIP – a far cry more appealing than his 4.13 earned run average.

A big loss, but plenty of talent

Similar to the Cubs, St. Louis loses a big piece in its rotation. While Chicago drops Jake Arrieta, the Cardinals will likely move on from right-hander Lance Lynn. The big hurler played an integral part in last year’s rotation, so it’s up to guys like Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty to pick up the slack. Of course, longtime veteran Adam Wainwright is in the mix, as well, but he’s hardly the hurler he once was.

That equates to 40 percent of the St. Louis rotation in the hands of largely inexperienced, albeit very talented young hurlers. Long-term, this could prove to be a big advantage for the Cardinals, but in the interim, could be a vulnerability to their NL Central aspirations.

Milwaukee Brewers have work to do to stay competitive

If the Milwaukee Brewers simply bank on the success they enjoyed in 2017 and make no substantive additions to the starting rotation this winter, they’re in trouble.

The club will miss starter Jimmy Nelson for a good chunk of next season, and adding Yovani Gallardo isn’t exactly what I’d call a slam-dunk replacement. Gallardo comes off a 5.72 ERA season a year ago, in which he posted a 1.515 WHIP in 22 starts and six relief appearances. He’s a back-end starter – at best.

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Without Nelson atop the rotation, it’s up to the likes of Zach Davies and Chase Anderson to carry the load right now. Both are south of 30 years of age and could be impact arms for Milwaukee for years to come. Davies won 17 games in 2017, pitching to a 112 ERA+ in his team-leading 33 starts. Anderson, meanwhile, put up a 2.74 ERA – but could regress a bit given his 3.58 FIP.

A real drop-off

This is where it gets shaky. After Davies and Anderson, you’re relying on a combination of Gallardo, Matt Garza and Brandon Woodruff. The latter holds the most promise, given he made only eight starts and is yet to turn 25. Garza, meanwhile, is a wasted roster spot if we’re just being honest.

If the Brewers want to legitimately take a run at the Central agin this season, it’s time to pony up some money for a Jake Arrieta-type arm to slot in atop the rotation. If they manage to do that, when Nelson returns, this team could be downright lethal.

Cincinnati Reds need a healthy Homer Bailey to have a chance

It seems like the Cincinnati Reds are never rebuilding – but, for that matter, they’re never a true contender, either. But with a young core that showed plenty of promise offensively in 2017, it’s all up to the pitching staff in 2018.

This team needs Homer Bailey. When they inked the right-hander to a massive six-year, $105 million extension, they expected big things. Even now, he’s just 31 years old and could become a quality starter. But that hasn’t happened.

Since 2015, Bailey has made just 26 starts. In said starts, he hasn’t exactly been effective, either. He owns a 4.66 FIP and a 1.723 WHIP with an unsightly 68 ERA+. So, as mentioned. If the Reds have any chance of competing, Bailey has to be healthy in 2018.

Behind him, it’s a mix of Tim Adleman, Sal Romano and Luis Castillo. This trio has some work to do before they’re considered the makings of a contending big-league staff. Adleman barely kept his earned run average under 6.00 (5.52), while Romano struggled to control his strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Based strictly on the numbers, Castillo seems to have the most promise of the three. He made only 15 starts in 2017, but was effective and controlled his pitches well. He’s a name to keep an eye on in 2018 in Cincinnati.

Chicago Cubs could put things out of reach with Darvish addition

The Chicago Cubs already boast a three-headed monster of Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana atop the starting rotation. Factor in the likes of Tyler Chatwood and, potentially, Mike Montgomery at the back end and that’s a solid group.

But on Monday, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer had a 3 1/2 hour meeting with free agent right-hander Yu Darvish in Texas. More notably, the two sides are set to meet again on Tuesday – so we’re clearly past the ‘kicking the tires’ stage of things here. Despite a rocky World Series performance, the right-hander represents the best arm available this offseason.

Darvish owns a career 3.42 ERA across five big-league seasons. He got his first taste of National League action last year after a midseason trade to the Dodgers. The Japanese right-hander dominated in the Division and League Championship Series, only to struggle in the Fall Classic. Of course, he reportedly tipped his pitches, which is fixable and makes me personally feel a lot better about said struggles.

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With Darvish in-tow, the Cubs could feasibly throw out a combination of Hendricks, Darvish, Lester, Quintana in a best-of-five postseason series. This also allows both Chatwood and Montgomery to serve as long-men in the bullpen. On paper, at least, it’s hard to see any of the aforementioned rotations stack up when we’re talking about this potential Cubs staff.