Chicago Cubs: Making the case for free agent Lance Lynn in 2018

Consistency over the years

Lynn broke into the league in 2011 at the age of 24. In 18 appearances that season, Lynn started just two games. The following season, 2012, Lynn begun working more out of the rotation, starting 29 games out of 35 total appearances.

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In his first full season as a starter, Lynn amassed 176 innings pitched and won 18 games. In addition to that, the right-hander logged a 3.78 ERA and struck out 180 batters. For his efforts, Lynn was selected to his first and only All-Star Game.

From 2013 to 2015, Lynn was an above average pitcher for the Cardinals. Over those three seasons, Lynn started 97 games and went 42-31 with a 3.25 ERA. In addition to that, Lynn averaged 8.5 strikeouts per game and logged an ERA+ of 115.

Following a stellar body of work over those three seasons, Lynn was forced to miss the entire 2016 season because of Tommy John surgery. With three straight seasons of 30 or more starts under his belt dating back to 2013, the question surrounding Lynn in 2017 was whether he could reach that level again following surgery. The answer to that question was yes.

At age 30, Lynn made 33 starts and went 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA. In addition to that, Lynn logged 186 1/3 innings pitched and amassed an ERA+ of 124. Despite his solid numbers, there was some regression from the 2015 season.

Pre-surgery, Lynn had never averaged less than eight strikeouts per nine innings. In 2017, however, that number dropped to 7.4. Along with that, Lynn issued an increased number of walks, averaging 3.8 per nine, while allowing 1.3 home runs per game.

 Postseason experience

Going into the 2018 season, the entire Cubs’ rotation will have postseason experience (except for Tyler Chatwood). For that reason, it would make sense for the Cubs’ front office to sign a fourth pitcher that can get it done in October. Lance Lynn could be that guy.

Lynn has an extensive postseason track record dating back to 2011. From 2011 to 2015, Lynn has amassed 52 innings of postseason experience. In that time, the right-hander has appeared in 24 games (seven starts), and logged a 4.50 ERA. Those numbers include Lynn’s 2.81 ERA in 25 2/3 NLCS innings over the years.

Trending in the right direction

The question facing every pitcher following Tommy John surgery is whether they can continue to use their tools effectively. One season removed from surgery and it looks as if Lynn has improved in some areas.

Let’s start with pitch usage. Lynn is a five-pitch pitcher, using a fastball, sinker, change-up, curve-ball and cutter. Prior to surgery, Lynn was using his fastball more than 50% of the time, while mixing in his sinker around 20-25% of the time. Post-surgery, those numbers have equalized as Lynn used his fastball 38% of the time and his sinker 42% of the time in 2017.

Lynn’s remaining three pitches have not seen a big change in usage following surgery. In 2017, Lynn mixed in his cutter just 11% of the time while his curve-ball and change-up made up just seven percent of the pitches thrown.

Now that we know what we’re working with, we can dive into the numbers. In 2017, Lynn saw an increase in the whiff percentage on his sinker and change-up, while the whiff percentage on his fastball remained fairly consistent to previous years. Along with that, batters had a hard time hitting Lynn’s pitches than in prior years. In 2017, Lynn recorded lower batting average against numbers on all his pitches compared to the 2015 season.

To go along with that, Lynn’s two best pitches actually got better as the game went on in 2017. The first time through the order, batters hit .228 and .302 against Lynn’s fastball and sinker respectively. Twice through the order, batters hit .237 against the fastball and .294 against the sinker. Finally, three or more times through the line-up, batters averaged just .187 and .270 off those two pitches.

Lynn would round-out the rotation nicely

With Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, the Cubs do not need a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta-type pitcher. Those two free agents would each cost the Cubs over $100 million and require five or six-year contracts.

Instead of adding another front-line starter, the Cubs should focus on adding a solid back-end of the rotation guy that can eat up innings every fifth day. After looking at the numbers, I think Lance Lynn would make a great fifth starter.

Lynn is younger than Darvish and Arrieta and has proven he can throw a high volume of innings.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Should the team kick the tires on free agent Jay Bruce?

After turning in a solid season following Tommy John, many concerns should be answered. For that reason, it would be smart for the Cubs to go the cheaper route and sign Lance Lynn this off-season.