Chicago Cubs: Why the Cubs won’t sign Yu Darvish this winter

Jake’s demands too steep?

It’s likely a foregone conclusion that Arrieta will pitch elsewhere in 2018.

In March 2016, it was reported that Arrieta desired a long-term contract of six-to-seven years and expressed that the Cubs came in shorter than he wanted. That of course, was coming off his 2015 Cy Young season, and he still had two seasons to show that wasn’t a fluke.

While Jake has proven his stuff is good, it’s not exactly the best business model of extending pitchers long-term, and already past their age 31-year season.

This past March, Arrieta reportedly sought $200 million. With agent Scott Boras representing him, and after comments Boras has made in recent days, we know Arrieta will get his money somewhere.

So if Chicago was not inclined to give that to Arrieta, why would they do that for a pitcher such as Darvish, who’s the same age as Arrieta – Arrieta turns 32 in March – and coming with the injury history attached?

Arrieta has pitched 300 more innings compared to Darvish across their respective big-league careers. That doesn’t account for Darvish’s 1268 1/3 innings in Japan between 2005 and 2011.

Darvish may be most remembered for his dismal World Series in which he lasted just 1 2/3 innings in Games 3 and 7, and allowed eight earned runs. As fresh as that is in people’s minds, it doesn’t detract from the overall body of Darvish’s work.

Maybe it costs him a few million dollars in free agency, but he will likely be the most expensive free agent pitcher this winter, at least right up there with Arrieta.

Yu know he’s good

Since we’re on the subject, let’s go ahead and really zero in on Darvish.

For 2017, he was 12th in the majors in K/9 (10.08) and had a 2.80 BB/9 which is only slightly worse than 2016 (2.78), in nearly half the starts. Both seasons are better than each one before it. In 2012 that number was 4.19.

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Darvish’s 1.30 HR/9 tied him with Jon Lester, and familiar names, including a few rumored Cubs targets in Jeff Samardzija and Lance Lynn, and former Cub Jason Hammel. This rate was the highest of Darvish’s career.

His 3.83 FIP would be second-best only to Jose Quintana‘s 3.68 on the team. Kyle Hendricks‘ 3.88 would not qualify since he only pitched 139 2/3 innings. Lester’s was next-best at 4.10.

When healthy, Darvish’s numbers tell you he is among the best pitchers in the game. In fact, he had those numbers in 2017 despite going on the disabled list for back tightness in August, although he wasn’t down long.

Risk factor

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m always leery about dishing out large contracts, because of the large salary, but mainly the length of years attached. Especially for a player north of 30 years. Add that to the clouded aforementioned injury history.

Aside from this, just as there were no real indications that the Cubs were seriously considering re-signing Arrieta, at his price demands, the same goes for Darvish. Previous factors mentioned a potential reason why, but it’s just not in the Cubs’ long-term best interests.

Cubs looking to fill back of rotation

The main news on the Cubs front, particularly the starting pitching, is that of former Rays pitcher, Alex Cobb. A signing feels imminent. Although imminent could be next month, but there’s just a sense that something will get done at some point.

Assuming Cobb gets at least a four-year, $60 million deal, that is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for Chicago. Without the albatross in salary or years committed.

Just as the trade for cost-controlled starter Jose Quintana signaled the Cubs’ strategy, particularly for the rotation and long-term, signing Cobb would provide insurance for the middle to back-end of the rotation while giving the organization time to cultivate new prospects.

That previously posed question of Darvish or Arrieta? The answer is likely none. Not at either pitcher’s demand, as both are likely diminishing assets as they creep towards age 40 by the end of the contracts.

Arrieta is more familiar, and on the right deal, I would probably push more for bringing him back. But he also comes with concerns, such as mechanically, in the early going of the 2017 season. Although he has typically rebounded, how long can that continue?

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The Cubs are on the fine line between doing something bold, possibly trade-wise, but staying on the free agent conservative side. Just as Arrieta is likely going somewhere else in 2018, don’t count on Yu Darvish to be his replacement.

Not to mention, the Cubs are prioritizing relief pitchers. Not top-of-the-rotation starters, risks included.