Chicago Cubs: Which Cubs are most likely to be traded?

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It’s that time of year again. The Chicago Cubs–and every other team in the league–will be rumored, speculated about and more on what they’ll do this offseason.

It’s been a week since the conclusion of the regular season, and the young offseason has already provoked at least one apparently baseless rumor for Cubs’ fans to pick apart. It’s hard to blame fans for speculating on rumors. Even the early offseason can be boring at times for the baseball world. However, this week MLB general managers are meeting, and fans may start to learn what their front offices want in the offseason.

Moving major league talent is the path forward to improving the Cubs. Theo Epstein said as much just a day after the Cubs were eliminated from the NLCS.

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The Cubs currently have a surplus of position players, but a deficit of pitching. Because of this, the Cubs are bound to move at least one of their young position players for pitching. That was Epstein’s plan since joining the Cubs’ front office: draft and develop bats, then trade for pitching.

Speculation on who the Cubs may target has already begun. Less talk has been dedicated to whom the Cubs will have to move to acquire those targets.

Many Cubs have perpetually been in the trade rumor mill. Kyle Schwarber has looked like trade-bait since his 2016 injury. Ian Happ’s breakout rookie year may attract the interest of other teams. Javier Baez and Addison Russell could also be on the table for the right price.

Of the Cubs’ major league roster, more players could be available than players who aren’t. Let’s see which Cubs are most likely to find themselves in a new uniform in 2018.

#1. Ian Happ

Ian Happ forced the 2017 Cubs to make room for him on their MLB roster earlier than they had planned. While starting pitching and the bats struggled to find wins in the first half, Happ provided a bright light to Cubs fans. His rookie season may have had him in the Rookie of the Year conversation in a year with fewer breakout rookies. Still, an excess of Cubs’ middle-infielders could result in Happ relocating this offseason.

Why the Cubs will trade Happ

There’s no room for Happ in the Cubs’ future. Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and Addison Russell have established themselves as the untouchable middle-infield rotation.

Happ’s breakout year only increased his value for what he’s been to the Cubs all along: a trade piece. No matter what Happ did at the major league level, it was ultimately an audition to pique other teams’ interests in a trade.

His rookie season was undoubtedly solid, but he did show a tendency to fall into extended slumps.

Happ’s market value might be above what he is worth as a player following the 2017 season. Maddon’s limited use of Happ in the postseason may have been telling of the Cubs’ faith in him. It’s not hard to imagine there’s a team that could make better use of Happ than the Cubs can.

Why the Cubs won’t trade Happ

Happ has established himself as an essential asset to the Cubs. In 2017, his bat was far more valuable to the Cubs than Addison Russell’s and arguably even Javier Baez’s.

Happ’s versatility is something Joe Maddon likes to use. Happ can play shortstop, second base and center field. On offense, he’s a capable hitter from both sides of the plate. He’s the only switch-hitter the Cubs currently have.

The slumps Happ endured were the result of natural rookie growing pains. Happ’s ceiling is still miles above him, and the Cubs would like to see him reach it in blue pinstripes.

#2. Javier Baez

Javier Baez was one of the Cubs’ most consistent hitters in the regular season. He was essential to their 2016 World Series Championship. He hit the game-winning home run of the 2016 NLDS game 1 and was NLCS co-MVP. His defensive excellence provides fans with exciting highlights and regularly prevents runs from scoring. But Baez lands his spot on this list because a middle-infielder has to go, and the holes in his game seem unfixable.

Why the Cubs will trade Baez

Baez’s ceiling has been realized. A two-strike count is a de facto strikeout for Javier Baez. Any pitcher that can throw a decent slider away can provoke a swing-and-miss from Baez at any time.

Despite the glaring holes in his offense, Baez’s trade value should still be reasonably high. Teams are always anxious to add more sluggers. Baez’s defensive highlight reel could attract offers on its own.

We’ve seen the best that Baez can be. His flashy defensive plays aren’t worth the many unproductive outs he makes on offense. The Cubs would be wise to deal Baez while his value is what it is.

Why the Cubs won’t trade Baez

The Cubs suffer when Baez isn’t on the field. The Cubs’ pitching staff is reliant on getting outs on the ground, and having Baez’s glove in the middle infield makes getting those outs that much easier.

Baez’s bat can still improve. If he dedicates his offseason to learning how to wait on the off-speed stuff, he’ll be an even better player in 2018. Moving Baez before that potential is realized could be something that haunts the Cubs for years.

The 2017 postseason was one to forget for Baez, and it may have hurt his trade value. On the big stage of the MLB postseason, Baez looked lost at the plate. The Cubs know that that isn’t the player Baez is, but other teams may not be able to look past that.

#3. Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber struggled for much of 2017. Speculation that he would be traded for pitching preceded the deadline. Schwarber steadily improved during the second half. He learned to hit the opposite way more frequently. His ability to hit lefties increased. Despite his improvements, his defensive inconsistencies will always invite talk of Schwarber being moved to the American League.

Why the Cubs will trade Schwarber

Schwarber isn’t the player the Cubs thought he was when they drafted him. He’s showed blips of greatness, but sustained mediocrity. Much of his success has come on big stage which has made Cubs’ fans overvalue him.

When the league started shifting on Schwarber regularly in 2017, his productivity dropped off. The shift has ruined careers in the past; ask Ryan Howard. Schwarber’s career could fall victim to the shift before it even truly begins.

If Schwarber can conquer his struggles against the shift and left-handed pitching, he would still be a liability on defense. In the American League, Schwarber could be a designated hitter. His defensive inefficiencies would become irrelevant to his game.

Why the Cubs won’t trade Schwarber

The risk that comes with trading Schwarber is apparent: he might be that good. His 2017 campaign could ultimately be an outlier in a career defined by offensive dominance. In the latter half of the season, he improved on his weaknesses, and that upward trend should continue.

Theo Epstein vehemently defended Schwarber even at his lowest points. When Schwarber missed most of the 2016 season with an injury, Epstein included him in important meetings all year. Schwarber is as essential to the Cubs’ core and future as Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.

If the Cubs move Schwarber, he’ll play his prime years in another city. His value will never be lower than it is right now, so the return would not likely be worth giving up a guy with a ceiling as high as Schwarber’s.

#4. Addison Russell

Addison Russell had an interesting 2017 season. He had off-the-field controversies, an extended injury, and statistics that left the Cubs wanting more. When the Cubs traded for Russell, he was immediately considered one of the foundational players they would build around. With the recent breakouts of other middle infielders, Russell’s job security isn’t what it once was.

Why the Cubs will trade Russell

Russell is the odd-man-out in the Cubs’ rotating middle infield. His power doesn’t match what Baez or Happ offer. His on-base abilities aren’t that of Ben Zobrist’s. When Russell was injured, Baez moved to shortstop to cover his role. Baez out-performed Russell at his own position.

Russell’s slumps are more indicative of who he is as a player than his hot streaks. Other teams would get higher value out of Russell than the Cubs, who have players that can fill in for Russell and play as well if not better.

The Cubs should take advantage of the opportunity to trade Russell before other Cubs force him into a reduced role. If other teams perceive Russell as a bench player, his value will plummet.

Why the Cubs won’t trade Russell

Russell is a core player for the Cubs. Epstein traded for him with the intention of him being a foundational part of the Cubs’ future. One strange season for Russell won’t change that. It would take more than one year for the front office to lose faith in Russell.

There’s still room for improvement for Russell. He’s showed that he could hit, but he hasn’t found his power yet. That discovery is inevitable, and if it all comes together, Russell could find himself in an MVP conversation. The Cubs don’t want to miss that realization.

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Russell’s defensive prowess is often overshadowed by Baez’s, but Russell is a great shortstop. He’s invaluable to the Cubs on defense and offense. He’s a player the Cubs can’t afford to move.

There’s no way of knowing who the Cubs will move, but most trades of MLB players will be met with controversy. The Cubs’ core was a large part of the 2016 team that brought Chicago their first Cubs’ World Series in 108 years. Seeing any of those players leave will be hard on fans, but such a trade may be inevitable.

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