Chicago Cubs need to avoid bringing back John Lackey for 2018

Veteran John Lackey reportedly plans to pitch in 2018. That being said, he’s not the rotation answer the Chicago Cubs should be looking for this offseason.

After a gritty veteran performance late in the year, effectively pitching the Chicago Cubs back to the postseason, John Lackey seemed to be headed off into the sunset. His teammate and friend Jon Lester toasted him in the visitor’s clubhouse in St. Louis, all but sealing the deal when it came to his future.

“Here is to one hell of a career,” Lester told his teammates after the game.

Then came October. Lackey found himself on the wrong side of a big moment, when Justin Turner took him deep for a Dodgers walk-off win – coming on the anniversary of Kirk Gibson‘s emotional and iconic homer. For not just Lackey, but the entire Cubs team, the series was a forgettable one. The team underperformed in virtually every aspect, leading to a prompt Game 5 exit in blowout fashion.

With Jake Arrieta and Lackey both free agents, Chicago needs to replace 40 percent of its 2017 starting rotation. It was widely assumed Lackey would retire and, in the last week, other moves seemed to push Arrieta’s market value presumably out of the Cubs’ price range.

But with Lackey reportedly wanting to keep pitching, the team has a decision to make. Bring him back on a one-year, incentive-laden deal or move on and keep an eye on the future.

Chicago Cubs: Keeping the ball in the yard a challenge for Lackey

If one were to try to sum up John Lackey’s biggest struggle in 2017, they would not have to do much research. He simply failed to keep the long-ball in check.

On the year, the right-hander served up nearly two homers per nine (1.9 to be exact) – by far the worst mark of his big-league career.

Control, as a whole, was an issue for Lackey as his strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped from 3.40 in 2016 back to his career average of 2.81 in 2017. Right there tells me that this year’s version of John Lackey seems far more likely in 2018 than what we saw during the team’s World Series run of two years ago.

That lack of control led to his allowing 36 home runs, the highest total in the league, in 2017. He came away with a 4.59 ERA across 170 2/3 innings of work – but his 5.30 FIP suggests he benefited from the Cubs defense. Still, he put together some solid stretches of play during the year – surely enough to get him at least one more year in the bigs.

Chicago Cubs: Lackey loves himself some home cooking

Don’t take my belief the Cubs should let John Lackey pitch elsewhere as some sort of dig against him. It’s not. I just think the team would be better served giving the ball to a younger arm with something to prove as opposed to a near-40-year-old veteran on his last leg.

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But make no mistake. He’s still got something to offer.

At Wrigley Field last season, Lackey pitched to a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts and one relief appearance. His 3.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio at home was a sight for sore eyes, as well. Away from the Confines, he struggled badly – to the tune of a 1.353 WHIP and 5.18 earned run average. But, more than anything, it was a tale of two halves for the right-hander.

Prior to the All-Star Break, it seemed like John Lackey might be destined for a one-way ticket out of the Chicago Cubs bullpen. But down the stretch, he found what he’d been missing, putting up a respectable 3.75 ERA in the second-half (down from 5.20 in the first-half).

Between September and October, the animated veteran shined. He allowed just nine earned in nearly 30 innings of work, with the only month he posted a sub-1.000 WHIP in 2017. But, all told, he put up an earned run average north of 5.00 in four of the six months during the regular season.