Chicago Cubs chances of bring back Jake Arrieta dwindling

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CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 18: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs reacts in the middle of the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game four of the National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 18, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

The Chicago Cubs will undoubtedly be big players in the starting pitcher market this winter. But recent decisions around the league may have hampered their chances of retaining Jake Arrieta.

Since joining the Chicago Cubs, right-hander Jake Arrieta went from a subpar fringe arm with great potential to one of the best pitchers in the National League. He won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award thanks to a historic second-half and played an integral role in the team’s three-straight League Championship Series appearances.

For me personally, there are few Cubs players I appreciate and respect more than Arrieta. When the Los Angeles Dodgers handed Chicago an exit from the postseason, I was 100 percent onboard the ‘bring back Jake Arrieta’ train. I didn’t care what it cost – I wanted him back.

To a degree, I’m still aboard that train. But the decisions of several notable starting pitchers around the league in recent days may push Arrieta’s asking price to a level that could prove foolhardy for the Cubs to meet.

Here’s a look at those decisions and what the market looks like heading into the offseason.

PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 25: Johnny Cueto #47 of the San Francisco Giants throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a MLB game at Chase Field on September 25, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Giants defeated the Diamondbacks 9-2. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Other starters impacting the market in big ways

In the last week alone, Masahiro Tanaka, Johnny Cueto and Wei-Yin Chen all opted into the remaining years on their current contracts. These decisions took three potential free agent arms off the open market – thus driving up the demand for those left. This rings especially true for high-level arms like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta

Per usual, Evan Altman over at Cubs Insider put together a really nice piece on this whole concept over the weekend. He summed up these recent moves, offering up these thoughts: (the entire pieces is worth your time)

What this means is that Jake Arrieta is going to look that much more desirable to the teams in need of starting pitching. He was already in line for more than what seems like a laughably low prediction of $100 million over four seasons, but the utter lack of top-flight starters outside of Arrieta and Yu Darvish means that we’ll likely see even that much more separation at the top of the market.

A notable talent gap

In short, the free agent market for starting pitching looks like this: Arrieta and Darvish, a big gap, and then everyone else testing the waters of free agency.

MLBTR predicted four years and $100 million for Arrieta, which, to pretty much everyone who knows what the right-hander brings to the table, is laughable. Now that three other quality starting pitchers (I use that term lightly with Chen), his price is sure to blow past that mark with whomever he signs.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 13: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates in the clubhouse with teammates after defeating the Washington Nationals 9-8 in game five of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 13, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Arrieta, Darvish setting the market

If you look at the original Top 10 free agent rankings from MLBTR, only one starting pitcher apart from Darvish or Arrieta- Lance Lynn – appears on that list. Tanaka opted into his deal with New York, rendering his inclusion meaningless.

More from Cubbies Crib

Now, I broke down some choices facing Theo and Jed over the weekend. If the Cubs brought back both Arrieta and closer Wade Davis on new contracts, I’m guessing you’re looking at a minimum of $40 million annually. Or, the Cubs could diversify, going for the middle-tier options on the market, perhaps shoring things up with a trade.

But, with the news of Cueto also opting in to the remaining three years of his deal, I have concerns. Arrieta’s price will undoubtedly rise – but so will guys like Lynn, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner – to name a few. As Cubs Insider pointed out, it’s not difficult. This comes down to the simple law of supply and demand.

Trades, free agency – they all come with a cost

Free agency seems to be a likelier solution for the Cubs’ roster holes than trades – at least to me. Chicago did a number on its farm system in the trades for Aroldis Chapman, Jose Quintana and Justin Wilson/Alex Avila over the last two years. It needs time to recoup some talent and develop some of the lower-level guys before wheeling and dealing again.

But, the same as trades cost you talent, this year’s free agent market will cost a good chunk of change. Understanding – and accepting – that fact now will make the coming months more palatable for all of us.

CLEVELAND, OH – NOVEMBER 02: President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein reacts after the Cubs defeated the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs have questions – and Theo will again have answers

The good news? No one really listens to me. At least not in the Cubs front office. And, at this point, I don’t envy the job ahead of Theo and Jed. They have to balance the ever-climbing expectations in and around the organization with fiscal responsibility and putting a quality product on the field.

In my lifetime, I’ve never had as much faith in a front office than I do with this one. If there’s an opportunity to bring Jake Arrieta back – I know this group will do their due diligence. But, more importantly, I trust them to not overextend and push the team into a long-term unsavory position.

The flashy names like Arrieta or Darvish always look enticing. But, as the Cubs saw two years ago, what you expect to get from a big-time free agent, doesn’t always pan out. Chicago brought in Jason Heyward on a record contract. He then essentially quit producing at the plate.

Next: If Wade walks, Cubs should consider these trade options

These risks are present with all players – and with contracts pushing higher and higher in terms of value each year, balancing the now with the future is more important than ever before.

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