Chicago Cubs have choices to make regarding the future of the ninth inning

Wade Davis was the Chicago Cubs’ best reliever in 2017, but as he is set to become a free agent. We take a look at other options around the Majors.

The Chicago Cubs had issues in their bullpen this past season, but there was an utmost strength at the back end in closer Wade Davis.

Davis is a free agent and arguably the best closer available on the market this winter. Coming off one of his best seasons, Davis converted 32-of-33 save opportunities, compiled a 2.30 ERA and 12.12 K/9. He was the best when the game was on the line, close, and late.

He also owns the franchise record for consecutive saves.

It remains to be seen how the offseason is going to go, so let’s take a look at other potential closers that could be available this winter.

Greg Holland

We’ll start with an old teammate of Davis from Kansas City – 2017 Colorado Rockies closer, Greg Holland.

Holland will opt-out and test the market and there are sure to be suitors interested. Coming off a season with the surprising Rockies, he converted 41 of 45 saves in 57 1/3 innings. His BB/9 was high (4.08), yet lower than his 2015 season (5.24).

Holland’s 2016 season was lost to Tommy John surgery.

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Considering, his 2017 campaign couldn’t have gone much better as he led the league in saves and made the All-Star team. His 1.10 HR/9 was the highest of his career as he only surrendered seven home runs–three at home and four on the road.

You might think Holland’s numbers would be misrepresented a bit as his home games were played in hitters- friendly Coors Field, yet the splits were fairly consistent.

At home, he had a 3.34 ERA as opposed to 3.90 away from Denver. He allowed 12 runs, 11 ER at home across 29 2/3 innings, and 12 runs, all earned on the road spanning 27 2/3 frames.

For Holland, it’s encouraging that his ERA improved slightly, even while in Colorado, and upon his 2015 season in Kansas City (3.83), where he was lost in late Sep. to the torn UCL that caused his TJS for 2016.

This paved the way for Wade Davis’ official coming out party as the closer.

Holland saved 93 games respectively for the Royals between 2013 and 2014. He had an ERA of 1.22 and 1.44 in those seasons.

What to expect?

With plenty of teams lining up for a closer, he should fetch three years, $30 million at least. Probably way too conservative on the money side, but you get the idea.

Tony Watson

Tony Watson evolved into a promising reliever for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since making his big-league debut in 2011, he was primarily used in middle relief and setup roles for closer Mark Melancon. He then became the team’s closer in 2016 following the trade of Melancon to the Nationals.

Watson’s tenure in the role down the stretch was good with the exception of a few rough outings in September, primarily a four-run appearance against the Cardinals, which hit his ERA for the month (5.06).

He ended up converting 15/20  save opportunities and allowed 10 earned runs in the final two months of the season for a 3.86 earned run average. From Opening Day that year through July, and prior to taking over as closer, he had a 2.64 clip.

Watson started the 2017 season as the Bucs’ closer, but a good April turned into an ugly May (eight earned runs, 5.14 ERA) and he was removed from the role. The Dodgers acquired him in late July to attempt to bolster their relief depth.

In 24 games out west, he put together a 2.70 ERA to close out the season and took the Dodgers’ lone NLCS loss, Game 4 against the Cubs.

What to expect?

He’s not going to be closing games for teams in 2018, outside of something happening to a team’s closer, but he can be valuable in middle-to-late relief.

Addison Reed

Addison Reed wound up in a pennant race in 2017 when the Mets sold off parts and traded the six-year veteran to the Red Sox. While in New York, he acted as the team’s closer and did the job quite well.

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Over 49 innings, he put together a solid line: 19 of 21 saves converted, a 2.57 ERA  and 1.12 WHIP.

Reed had 48 strikeouts to six walks. In roughly half the innings for Boston, he struggled a little bit outside of the closer role–Craig Kimbrel runs shop there–allowing 10 earned runs, 3.33 ERA.

League adjustments and shifting to the AL taken into consideration.

Reed had years closing for the White Sox and Diamondbacks from 2012-14, compiling 101 saves with 18  blown saves but with a 4.00-plus ERA and 3.83 FIP in that span.

What to expect?

Reed can close, as he has the experience and did it well for the Mets in 2016. Depending on the team–maybe the Cardinals?–he might be viewed as a closer. Especially in a weaker class with less than viable candidates.

The prediction is he steps into an ace setup role for a team.

Fernando Rodney

Fernando Rodney unloading his bow-and-arrow into the night sky was a common occurrence for the Diamondbacks in 2017. The former Cub and Ray put together 39 saves during the season in 45 opportunities.

When it comes to Rodney, you know what you’re getting.

He had a bloated ERA (4.23), giving up 26 earned in 2017, although that’s typically been the norm for Rodney throughout his career. Rodney saw his K/9 increase to 10.57, its highest mark since 2013. Even though his walk percentage decreased two percent from 2016, he still had an ugly 4.23 BB/9.

What to expect?

At 40-years-old, Rodney won’t be pitching much longer, if he even decides to at all in 2018. He has put together a fine 15-year big league career and has a nice round number of 300 career saves. That’s a nice number to go out on.

If he comes back, it’s probably going to be on a one-year deal, maybe two tops. But the Cubs don’t need a reunion with Rodney.

Brandon Kintzler

Brandon Kintzler was an All-Star closer for the Twins before being dealt to the Nationals in July to help transform a bullpen makeover.

That makeover, which included trades with the Athletics to bring in Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, the latter taking over as closer, actually allowed Kintzler to occupy a setup role. While in Minnesota in 2016, Kintzler put together 28 saves in 32 opportunities, and 2.78 ERA in 45 1/3 innings pitched.

In Washington, he had a 3.46 ERA for the Nationals over 26 innings, while setting things up for Doolittle. On the one hand, the Nats had to feel good with Doolittle closing games if they didn’t even want to employ an All-Star in Kintzler for the role.

On the other hand for Kintzler, do teams value him as a closer going forward? That will depend on the availability of others, price, and demand. Prior to 2016, he never had a save, before taking over to close games mid-way through the year.

What to expect?

Kintzler could close games for someone in 2018. Outside of Davis and Holland, he’s among the top three candidates available. Kintzler proved his worth for the Twins alright.

Final verdict

Wade Davis is going to be among the top priorities for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. He did everything you could want and was Joe Maddon’s most most-trusted reliever.

A few months ago I made the case for the Cubs’ relief being set with Davis and Carl Edwards Jr. Edwards might one day be the Cubs closer but he needs more time. He just completed his first full season as he struggled to find consistency in 2017.

Greg Holland and Brandon Kintzler are capable backup options, but if you’re Theo Epstein, the priority is to re-sign the reliever who did so well for you.

This is probably the simplest, and most predictable move the Chicago Cubs make heading into 2018.