Chicago Cubs should consider dangling Addison Russell this offseason

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Another season of Chicago Cubs baseball is in the books. Time to start focusing on the offseason and ways to strengthen the team for 2018.

We all died after the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series (people forget that) and now we’re in baseball purgatory. After waiting 108 years for that seemingly inconceivable moment to arrive, we’re now doomed to suffer an eternity of winless Cubs baseball, as punishment for our incessant gloating in the face of victory.

Not really, though. A century of perennial losing is rough. Cubs fans deserved every finger-pointing “haha, losers!” they could squeeze in. Alas, the party is now over and it’s time to get serious. The Cubs stumbled upon a hard truth as they were thrust out of the postseason. That truth: the bullpen is rather weak. That might be an understatement, actually.

The rotation isn’t in the best place, either. Jake Arrieta‘s contract is up and it doesn’t seem likely he’ll re-sign. John Lackey is also not likely to return. I suspect most fans will find some degree of jubilation in that reality, but it’s still another spot to fill. Jon Lester is coming off a down year and will turn 34 before the start of the 2018 season. So there are some undeniable hurdles to clear if the Cubs want to return to the top.

With all that in mind, let’s get down to brass tacks. Here’s why the Cubs should trade Addison Russell.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 11: Addison Russell #27 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after striking out in the fourth inning during game four of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on October 11, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Russell has not progressed offensively

When Addison Russell was traded from the Oakland Athletics to the Chicago Cubs in 2014, he was ranked as the 11th-best prospect in the league. Giving up Jeff Samardzija was a bit distressing at the time because it meant the Cubs spent yet another season as the cellar-dweller of the league. But Russell was an exciting shortstop prospect with a remarkably high ceiling.

He made his major league debut in 2015. In 142 games he slashed .242/.307/.389 with 13 home runs and 54 RBI. Those are reasonably productive numbers for a 21-year-old rookie. Two years later? More of the same. In fact, he’s regressed in some ways.

Now, Russell compiled 95 runs batted in last year. That’s the first point people will rush to when they’re yelling in the comments about why I’m way off-base here. This isn’t to detract from Russell’s accomplishments, but we put too much stock into the RBI stat and what it means.

ST. LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 25: Addison Russell #27 of the Chicago Cubs hits a two-run double against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium on September 25, 2017 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Hitting is just, well, hitting

The “clutch factor” isn’t as prominent as people would like to believe. Hitting with runners on base is not a different skill set from hitting without runners on base. It’s just hitting. A lot of a player’s RBI total has to do with what the lineup around him is doing. You aren’t going to drive in as many runs if the rest of your lineup can’t hit a lick. It’s pretty simple.

In 2016, the Cubs’ offense was historically great. Those guys mashed from top to bottom. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, who typically hit second and third that year, both finished with an on-base percentage of .385. When you’ve got an MVP and a three-time All-Star perpetually raking ahead of you, it’s not difficult to see how someone who hit a paltry .238 could record so many RBI.

It’s the same reason why you can’t over-analyze Kris Bryant’s drop-off in RBI in 2017. The Cubs’ offense wasn’t as lethal it was in 2016. Bryant won the NL MVP last year, and then came back in 2017 and somehow put together an even better slash line of .295/.409/.537. But the decrease in RBI means he was significantly worse at the plate this year? Get out of here.

CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 29: Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs comes out of the dugout for a curtain call after hitting a three-run homer against the Cincinnati Reds during the eighth inning on September 29, 2017 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

Ian Happ exists and is quite good

What if I told you the Cubs have another 23-year-old infielder who is already better than Russell at the plate and not too bad with his glove, either? Crazy, right? It’s true! As far as hitting goes, Ian Happ, after just one season, has surpassed Russell as a hitter.

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Happ slashed .253/.328/.514 with 24 home runs. Those are really impressive power numbers, especially when you consider he only played in 115 games. We could wait for Russell to become the hitter scouts purported him to be, or we could go with the bat of Happ, who appears to have a much higher floor and a similar ceiling.

So, what about the defense? It is true, Russell is an elite defender. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better defensive shortstop. And the duo of Javier Baez at second base and Russell at shortstop is truly a spectacle to behold.

But consider this: if Russell were traded, Baez would likely move to shortstop, his natural position. When Russell missed extended time with an injury, Baez flourished at shortstop. He seemed more comfortable than he had all season long.

Without Russell, a little bit of what you’d lose overall in the 2B/SS dynamic would be made up if Baez moved to shortstop. That would then open the door for Happ to regularly play second base, which is his natural position.

CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 09: Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts (L) and general manager Theo Esptein look on before game three of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on October 9, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Explore all avenues

If I had to guess, I’d say Russell is probably staying put. For now, at least. But it shouldn’t stop the Chicago Cubs’ front office from exploring all of their options. They have an excess of infield depth and a serious shortage of quality pitching, both in the bullpen and in the rotation.

Tough decisions have to be made. Does a slight defensive edge outweigh a more productive bat? I don’t know that it does. Even with his shortcomings at the plate, Russell would still hold significant trade value. He’s young enough that teams can still choose to bank on his potential.

Next: Dodgers advance past Cubs to World Series

The Chicago Cubs are in “win now” mode. This gives them the luxury of going after the sure thing. They don’t need to roll the dice on potential. Leave that to the teams desperately trying to become relevant again. Let the endless machinations of the offseason commence!

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