Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks primed to be Cubs’ ace in 2018

Jon Lester struggled in 2017

I don’t think there’s any hiding it, Jon Lester was not good this year. I would not say he was bad because according to his ERA+ (100), he was an average pitcher in 2017. Just average, however, is not what we are used to from Lester.

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Last season, Lester enjoyed one of the best campaigns of his career. In 32 starts, the left-handed amassed a 19-5 record and a 2.44 ERA. Along with that, Lester recorded an ERA+ of 171 and finished second in the National League Cy Young voting.

Lester’s 2017 season was another story. Like last year, Lester made 32 starts. Unlike last year, Lester won just 13 of them. In addition to that, Lester’s ERA shot up to 4.33.

That was due, in part, to his hits allowed per nine innings rising from 6.8 in 2016 to 8.9 in 2017. Lester’s 180 2/3 innings pitched in 2017 signaled the first time the lefty has not reached at least 200 innings pitched in a season since 2011.

Diving deeper into Lester’s numbers, one can see some small declines over the last few years. For instance, Lester recorded a walk percentage of 5.4 in 2014. Since then, it has risen every year, culminating in a 7.9 mark this season. Along with that, Lester’s home runs allowed per nine innings has risen every year since 2014, reaching 1.30 this season.

Despite what may look like a bleak picture, Lester still has a lot left in the tank. At 33 years old, a rough season is always worrisome, but Lester should be able to get back on his horse in 2018, just not as the Cubs’ ace.

Kyle Hendricks has risen to ace status

After finishing seventh in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, Hendricks had an unassuming 2015 campaign. In 32 starts, the right-hander went 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 180 innings pitched.

As it would turn out, that solid season for Hendricks set the stage for his break-out 2016 season. In 31 games (30 starts), Hendricks won 16 games, posted an ERA+ of 196 and struck out 170 batters in 190 innings pitched. Along with that, the 26-year-old Hendricks led the National League with a 2.13 ERA, helping him to finish third in the NL Cy Young voting.

Hendricks has made a living the last two seasons with a three pitch mix. That mix includes a fastball, curve-ball and change-up. While many pitchers in baseball today can reach 95-98 MPH on their fastball, Hendricks averaged 85 MPH with his heater this season. Hendricks’ main secondary pitch is his change-up which he throws around 28 percent of the time. Lastly, Hendricks uses his curve-ball less than ten percent of the time, averaging 72 MPH on the pitch in 2017.

After Hendricks scraped his cutter following the 2015 season, the percentage of soft contact against him increased considerably. In 2015, Hendricks last season with a cutter, 18.7 percent of the batted balls against him were considered soft contact. In the two years since, that number has risen to 25 and 22.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Hendricks already has a fair amount of postseason experience

One of the defining qualities of a staff ace is being able to dominate the postseason. Usually, a team’s ace starts Game 1 of either the division or championship series to get his team a victory and the upper hand. In a career that has spanned only four seasons, Hendricks has already gained a lot of postseason experience.

Including this year’s postseason, Hendricks has racked up 50 innings in playoff games. In those innings, Hendricks has recorded a 2.88 ERA and struck out 48 batters.

During his postseason experience, Hendricks has been called upon to pitch in some big games. The first of those games came against the Dodgers in Game 6 of the 2016 NLCS. With one win standing between the Cubs and a World Series appearance, Hendricks tossed 7 1/3 innings of shut-out baseball, striking out six batters in the process.

Hendricks didn’t give in to the Game 7 pressure

Last year’s postseason schedule allowed Hendricks two starts in the World Series, games three and seven. While Game 3 resulted in a 1-0 loss to the Cleveland Indians, Hendricks did well to hold down the fort in Game 7. In a do-or-die Game 7, starting pitchers tend to not last long with managers quick to go to their bullpen. On November 2, 2016, a date that will go down as the greatest day in Cubs’ history, Hendricks tossed 4 2/3 innings, giving up two runs (one earned) and four hits.

With Hendricks’s success in last year’s postseason, Joe Maddon started his young righty in Game 1 of the 2017 NLDS against the Washington Nationals. Hendricks once again proved he could rise to the occasion, tossing seven innings of two-hit baseball, striking out six and walking three.

It’s time for the young-gun to take over

One of the main concerns for the Cubs this off-season will be the starting rotation. As it stands right now, there are two spots that need to be filled. Despite that, there is one thing that will be certain come Opening Day. Hendricks will be the horse for the Cubs’ staff in 2018.

With Jon Lester coming off a rough season and Hendricks riding high after two outstanding seasons, it would be unwise to start anyone other than Hendricks on day one of the 2018 season.

Next season could be a turning point for the Cubs pitching staff. For the last three seasons, the rotation has been dominated by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. With Arrieta leaving in free agency and Lester showing some signs of decline, the Cubs need Hendricks to step-up and be the man in 2018.

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There is no doubt Hendricks can live up to the pressure of big moments. He has proven that over the last two seasons. If the Cubs decide to hand over the ace card to Hendricks in 2018, the entire season will be a big moment in which Hendricks will have every chance to shine.

Personally, I can’t wait to see what “The Professor” can do.