Chicago Cubs: Jon Jay needs to be re-signed this winter

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Jon Jay has been an important part of the Chicago Cubs’ season. For that reason, the Cubs need to give him a long-term deal

Coming into the 2017 season, the Chicago Cubs needed to find a new lead-off hitter. Dexter Fowler, who held down the job for the better part of 2015 and 2016, had just signed a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Despite the absence of Fowler, the Cubs felt confident they had a replacement. That replacement came in the form of Kyle Schwarber who missed the majority of the 2016 regular season with a knee injury. Despite having only four at-bats during the regular season, Schwarber returned just in time for the World Series. In 17 at-bats against the Indians, Schwarber logged seven hits and slashed .412/.500/.471.

With Schwarber healthy and ready for his first full season in the big leagues, Joe Maddon decided to try the 24-year-old as the team’s new lead-off man. Looking back, it is safe to say that experiment did not work out.

Schwarber got off to a slow start in April, hitting just .204 and striking out 35 times in 93 at-bats. The month of May was not any kinder to Schwarber as he slashed just .120/.232/.337 with 25 strikeouts in 83 at-bats.

Team turns toward other options

Do to the struggles of Schwarber; the Cubs were forced to pursue other options atop the line-up. As the season progressed, the Cubs used a combination of Anthony Rizzo, Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward and Jon Jay to plug the hole in the line-up.

While many options were used in the short-term, two players earned the majority of at-bats in the lead-off spot, Ben Zobrist and Jon Jay. Even though Zobrist provided solid production atop the order (.253/.330/.438 in 162 at-bats), it was the play of Jay that stood out.

In 217 at-bats in the lead-off position, Jay slashed .267/.325/.350 with 11 doubles and a triple.

With that solid performance, Jay did well to make his case for a long-term contract at season’s end, something he and the Cubs could benefit from.

Jay brings experience

Jay was signed by the Cubs last off-season to help provide depth in the outfield. Without Dexter Fowler‘s presence in center field, Albert Almora would have to assume a bigger role. That could have proved to be problematic because, before this season, Almora had just 112 major league at-bats under his belt.

With Almora’s inexperience on their minds, the Cubs’ front office signed Jay to a one-year deal worth $8 million. Jay was coming off two solid seasons in which he slashed .260/.326/.339 in 169 games between the Cardinals and Padres.

From his rookie season of 2010, through 2014, Jay slashed .295/.359/.396 with 108 doubles and an OPS+ of 109 in a little more than 2,100 at-bats.

Jon Jay is a Swiss Army knife

Throughout his career, Jay has proven he can play multiple positions at a high level and see the ball well from left and right-handed pitchers. This season, Jay further drove home that point.

Over the last three seasons (2014-2016), Jay logged 738 at-bats from right-handed pitchers and 232 at-bats from left-handed pitchers. While the sample size against lefties is understandably smaller considering Jay is a left-handed batter, the results are surprising. In those three years against southpaws, Jay slashed .310/.369/.371. Against right-handers, Jay slashed .268/.339/.351.

This season, Jay stuck to the script of not discriminating against who is throwing the ball. In 85 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, Jay slashed .318/.410/.341 with 12 walks and eight RBI. Against right-handed pitchers, Jay logged 294 at-bats. In those at-bats, Jay slashed .289/.364/.384 with two home runs and 26 RBI.

While Jay’s OBP was noticeably lower against right-handers, his slugging percentage was more than 40 points higher, giving him nearly identical OPS’s against lefties and righties.

Jay can play all over the outfield

Over his career, Jay has racked up over 6,800 innings on defense. The majority of those innings (5,140), have come as a center fielder, while just over 1,000 have been logged in right field and 665 in left field.

In center, Jay has committed just six career errors. That equates to a .996 fielding percentage, well above the league average of .988. At the corners, the story remains the same. In more than 1,700 innings between left and right fields, Jay has committed just two errors, logging a .994 fielding percentage. That is noticeably better than the league average of .984 for those two positions.

Too valuable to let go

While Jon Jay may not be the biggest power-hitting outfielder in the game, he provides the Cubs with something they are lacking. Over the course of his career, Jay has proven that he can get on base at a high frequency. That is an important first step for a lead-off hitter and something Dexter Fowler was able to do well in 2016.

Because Jay provides the Cubs with an experienced, offensive capable option atop the line-up, the Cubs should seriously consider re-signing him this off-season. While Jay’s age, 32, does limit the length of a possible contract, 2017 was Jay’s best offensive season since 2014

In the end, I think the Cubs would do well to re-sign Jay to a three or four-year deal. Such a deal would likely cost the team five to six million dollars a year. That would be money well spent for a team that does not have a defined lead-off hitter moving forward.

Next: Chicago Cubs looking for series-clinching start from Jake Arrieta

This off-season would be a great time for the Cubs to re-sign a poor man’s version of Dexter Fowler named Jon Jay.

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