Chicago Cubs: Looking at the numbers behind critical Game 2 decisions

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WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 07: Ryan Zimmerman #11 of the Washington Nationals celebrates after hitting a game winning 3 run home run against the Chicago Cubs in the eighth inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. The Nationals won the game 6-3. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) /

There’s no doubt that the eighth inning of Game 2 won’t soon be forgotten by Chicago Cubs fans. The team made history – and not in a way you want to see.

With just five outs to go in Saturday’s Game 2, the Chicago Cubs fell to pieces. The combination of Carl Edwards Jr. and Mike Montgomery allowed a pair of home runs that plated five runs – erasing a 3-1 advantage and evening the series at one game apiece.

In the wake of the loss, fans and pundits alike have been tearing Joe Maddon to pieces for his bullpen usage. Why? Because Game 2 marked the first time ever in MLB postseason history a right-handed pitcher allowed a homer to a left-handed batter and a lefty allowed a long-ball to a right-handed batter in the same inning.

After the loss, Maddon remained insistent he made the right call.

“C.J. was the right man for the job,” Maddon said. “Harper is good, C.J. is really good. C.J.’s numbers against left-handed hitters are among the best in all of baseball.”

During the regular season, Edwards held left-handed hitters to a .119 average. They slugged just .193 against him and he had allowed just two homers in the season against such batters. The right-hander had not allowed a run since Sept. 5 nor a hit since Sept. 10. In the last month, Edwards owned a sub-2.00 ERA and a 0.909 WHIP.

In other words, having him face a left-handed hitter can be justified, to say the least.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 07: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a two run home run against the Chicago Cubs in the eighth inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Looking at the bigger picture

But it wasn’t just any lefty-swinging bat in the box. It was Bryce Harper, who, despite missing more than a month with a knee injury, still racked up 29 homers in just 111 games. And to say he feasted on right-handed pitching this year is putting it mildly.

Of his 29 long-balls, Harper hit 26 of them against right-handers. He slugged 1.087 against them, as opposed to just .802 against southpaws. He managed just 10 extra-base hits against lefties this season – with 47 against right-hander (in an admittedly larger sample size).

A more troubling matchup

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So. Harper takes Edwards deep and the game is tied 3-3. He walks the next man, Anthony Rendon, who homered in the first off Jon Lester. Maddon heads to the mound and makes the move for Montgomery to face the left-handed hitting Daniel Murphy.

It doesn’t pay off. Murphy inside-outs a ball to left. Ben Zobrist cuts it off and the Nats now have a man at first with still just one out in the inning. Maddon keeps Montgomery in to face Ryan Zimmerman, a right-handed hitter. Keep in mind Wade Davis was throwing in the pen at different points in the late innings.

Ahead in the count 0-1, Montgomery leaves a pitch out over the heart of the plate and Zimmerman sneaks one over the left-field wall for a three-run blast. Never mind the fact it looked like Zobrist might have had a play on it had he leapt at the wall. That’s an entirely different matter altogether.

Let’s get back to the Zimmerman-Montgomery matchup.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 07: Mike Montgomery #38 of the Chicago Cubs reacts to a three run Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals home run against the Chicago Cubs in the eighth inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: An inexcusable move by Maddon?

Now, it’s rare you see a righty-on-lefty or lefty-on-righty matchup in today’s game – especially in the late innings. But Maddon isn’t a typical manager, either. He blends old school and new school with great fluidity in an organization that focuses heavily on analytics.

This year, the Cubs left-hander was essentially equally effective against both left and right-handed hitters. Lefties carried a .631 OPS while righties came in one point higher at .632. But, of the 10 long-balls surrendered by Montgomery this season, seven came off the bats of right-handed hitters.

Zimmerman, meanwhile, lit up lefties in 2017 to the tune of a 1.038 OPS. Twenty six of his 36 home runs came against southpaws and he slugged over 100 points better against them, as well. Knowing what we know now, it seems like Maddon based his decision more on how his players performed, rather than how the opponents did.

Why wasn’t Davis brought in to face Zimmerman?

The Harper homer – I can come to terms with that. Edwards simply missed with the pitch and the Nationals’ outfielder delivered in a big spot. It happens and I accept that. But letting Montgomery face one of Washington’s best hitters who owns such significant splits irks me. A lot.

Wade Davis blew one save this year. Sure, he only pitched more than one inning three times this year (and the last time did not go well as he blew the save and the game against Milwaukee in late September) – but this is October. There is no other time to save him for. With a scheduled off-day on Sunday, the Zimmerman at-bat should have gone to the Cubs’ closer. Period.

Next: 2017 Astros are this year's version of '16 Cubs

At the end of the day, hindsight is 20-20. The series is now a best-of-three with home field shifted to Chicago. It’s not a bad spot to be in. I’m a big Joe Maddon guy, but, for once, I have to say. This loss is on him.

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