Chicago Cubs: Starting rotation for the playoffs can be deadly

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For the third year in a row, the Chicago Cubs are presented with the hardest challenge: winning in the playoffs. The second hardest? Setting the rotation.

Never in our lifetime have we witnessed what occurred this season. Not only did the Chicago Cubs overcome a five and a half game deficit midseason, but they also made the playoffs for the third year in a row. And, they won their division again.

It was a tough year. The rotation allowed first-inning runs at an alarming rate to start the season. The offense sputtered. The defense was just okay. It certainly was not the same Chicago Cubs team we saw last year.

Still, they turned it around, playing to the best record in baseball during the second half of the season. Now, they prepare for the biggest challenge in the sport. Winning the World Series for a second year in a row would be something to behold. To make it, they need to win eleven games, starting with three against the Washington Nationals.

The biggest question? How does manager Joe Maddon set the rotation? Five pitchers for four true spots. Here is how I see it shaking out.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Coming for that #1 spot

After all that has transpired this season, there is one thing I must confess. Many of you said this last year, but I refused to follow suit. And, the way last season ended, I was right.

Not anymore. I no longer can say that Jon Lester is the true ace of the Chicago Cubs pitching staff. That is not to say I do not trust him, just simply his performance this year is not consistent with ace material.

With that confession done, the decision on whom should take the starting spot in game one versus Washington. There are two worthy candidates.

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Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks.

Last season, Hendricks was the king of Wrigley Field. And, while he started off slow this year, and was injured for a bit, Hendrick is (in my opinion) the best starter on the Chicago Cubs. In a game when you want to limit runs – especially if Max Scherzer is healthy enough to start – Hendricks is the man for the mission.

Had he qualified, Hendricks would boast the sixth-best ERA in the National League. Not back for the season after leading the league. He would also be sixth in walk/hits per nine innings. He may not overpower batters, but Hendricks is clearly one of the best in the National League.

Unlikely last season, Hendricks is better on the road than at home. He started 13 games at Wrigley with a record of four wins and three losses. His home ERA was 3.20, allowing 27 earned runs and 11 home runs in 76 innings. On the road? How about a 2.83 ERA, six home runs in 11 games. He showed he could be trusted on away from home.

And, let’s not forget his playoff performance last season. Against the top offense in the NL, Hendricks will get a chance to pick up a much-needed win.

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Tough call

Game 2 presents the toughest pitching decision the Chicago Cubs face. They have three options: John Lackey, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana. If things do not go as well as expected in the opening game, a win on the road is needed. It would be the first playoff appearance for Quintana, so leaving him to pitch at home is best. Maybe.

So, two choices.

How do you decide? Both with great post-season experience. Each possesses traits that make them important to the team. They struggled for the first half, found success for the second half.

Lackey give up home runs. The Nationals hit home runs.

Lester lets runners on base at a high rate. And, the Nationals get on base. And run.

So, it is truly a toss-up.

Why not pitch both?

It is not like last season when the Cubs could not trust their fifth starter. He didn’t even make the post-season roster. Lackey and Lester should. With their history, how can they not?

One starts, and the other goes to the pen. Here, I give Lester the start. Why? He found success against the Nationals this season. In 12 and two-thirds innings pitched, Lester allowed only four runs. While he did not pitch up a win in his two starts, he held the Nationals at bay. Lackey allowed 10 earned runs in this two starts against Washington.

Even though his home numbers are better – and I fear the reaction – Lackey can go to the pen for the Divisional Series. Tough call, but it makes the team better.

A nice surprise

Game 3. In front of the ivy of Wrigley Field. There is a really nice feel to watching such an event. Almost heaven.

Speaking of a nice feeling, Jose Quintana certainly was a great surprise for the Cubs. His acquisition certainly boosted the entire team. And he did not disappoint.

Since the trade the brought him to the Cubs, Quintana proved his All-Star talent.

Take a look at his stats: seven wins, three losses, a 3.50 ERA in 79 2/3 innings with the Cubs. Lower walk rate, and a high strike outt rate. The month of September has been Quintana’s best. Four starts, two wins including a complete game shutout. And, his ERA for the month is 1.63. Looks like he saved his best for the end of the season.

And, he is deadly against right-handed batters.

The Nationals? They are mostly right-handed. Game 3 will be at Wrigley Field. This could be his time to shine.

But, that means…

Yes. That means that should the series make it to Game 4; the Chicago Cubs are left to John Lackey or Jake Arrieta. If Arrieta can go in Game 3, and the Cubs are down two games, I can see him pitching there. But, Game 4 may be better suited for him. It provides a bit more rest, which will help his ailing hamstring.

This year, he struggled through four innings versus the Nationals, allowing six runs on six hits. And let’s not forget the seven stolen bases. While he is slower to the plate, we know Arrieta is not fully to blame.

The second half of the season was stellar for Arrieta. In 12 starts, he accumulated a 2.28 ERA, allowing only 17 earned runs. Opponents hit for a .215 batting average, much better than what he allowed in the first half.

The major concern I have is controlling the bases. While the Cubs do feature one of the best catchers at throwing out runners, Arrieta’s numbers are better when Alex Avila is behind the plate. Sure, the sample size is small, but a .167 opponent average is better than .242. Just a thought.

Next: Pitching could be the difference in NLDS

The major issue I have with this rotation is how it sets up for the NLCS, should the Chicago Cubs make it there – for the third time in a row. It actually may work well, but getting there will be enough of a challenge.

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