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Chicago Cubs: Better options loom over Justin Verlander
The Chicago Cubs are said to have inquired on Detroit Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander. So, let’s take a look at the Detroit Tigers’ righty.
We know the Chicago Cubs are scouring the market for starting pitching talent, and that apparently extends to Detroit Tigers‘ ace Justin Verlander.
Well, they inquired, which is not to say trade talks are imminent, or any indication that the Cubs and Tigers would swing a deal, but it always takes two to tango, and it never hurts to ask, right?
You’ll remember Verlander posted one of the more dominant seasons in history when in 2011 he won the pitching Triple Crown, going 24-5, racking up the Cy Young and American League MVP.
Verlander has primarily been a winner nearly each year of his career. With the exception of 2008 and then 2015 when he fought injuries.
The 13-year veteran nearly won another Cy Young last season, going 16-9, posting a 3.04 ERA, pitching his most innings since 2012, (227 2/3), leading the league in WHIP (1.00), his best since 2011 (0.92), and holding opponents’ batting average to .207, the best since 2011 (.192).
Shaky start
The 2016 Cy Young finalist is not having his relative past success thus far in 2017. Verlander is 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA and has already walked 47 batters this season.
He walked 57 total in 2016.
His BB/9 (4.35) is double his 2016 total (2.25), his K/9 (8.45) has diminished, though is still in line with his career norms, and his 2016 total (10.04) represented the third highest of his career.
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Verlander’s BABIP of .317 might help indicate some tough luck. His teams’ DER is towards the bottom of the league, but he’s still serving up harder contact. His line drive rate is 23.8 percent versus 18.1 percent through the same 17 starts comparison a year ago.
It’s been a widely broached subject as to why he is struggling so much, especially as it appeared Verlander had righted his ship last season, proving he was healthy after 2015. Among the storylines around Verlander have been whether he is tipping his pitches.
In fact, two of his very worst performances of the season came against the Indians, as he allowed a total of 16 runs in just over seven innings combined.
Asking price
Initial reports indicate the Tigers are asking the farm for their ace.
While you can sometimes chalk up one bad season, or in this case, half season, to tough luck or what have you, Verlander’s numbers have simply regressed to the point that you balk at the Tigers asking price.
Teams asking about Justin Verlander; perception is DET looking for big,big,big return w/out salary offset. Owed $70m for rest of '17,'18.'19
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 4, 2017
Not only that, the Cubs, in particular, are in need of young pitchers. Signed through 2019, Verlander represents a veteran on the wrong side of 30. Verlander is 34 years old and making $28 million this season. Plus, he has a 2020 vesting option for $22 million if he finishes top five in the 2019 Cy Young voting.
Maybe he will figure it out before the season is over. Or maybe a change of scenery is what ails the ace.
However, the current 2017 numbers don’t lie, and that’s a lot of if’s to wonder.
Bottom line, there’s going to have to be some kind of bend from the Tigers’ perspective before any real trade dialogue with any team is discussed.
The Cubs are not giving up prized prospects, either in the minors or at the major league level, especially for an aging star, who you don’t know what to expect from anymore, regardless of his track record.
CBS Detroit mentioned the names Javier Baez or Ian Happ. A hard no.
Thanks, but no thanks
Short of the Tigers eating most of the owed salary to Verlander, there’s no way the Cubs make a trade. Especially also considering the names that the Tigers might want in return.
In the midst of a season that so far looks anything but a lock for the Cubs, there are better strategies Theo Epstein and co. can employ.
With this season, and specifically, the future in mind.
Having won the World Series in 2016, no case can be made for any thought of needing to go all in. Not that Verlander of today would be the guy you go all in with.
While the Cubs’ reported inquiring of Verlander could be nothing more than just checking in for checking in’s sake, a hard look at the 2017 Verlander, and financial commitment aside, further indicate why the buck stops there.
As the Chicago Cubs’ persistent rotation issues present, Epstein is in the market for controllable arms. There’s no reason to throw the kitchen sink at an aging pitcher, owed an exorbitant amount of money, yielding Jekyll & Hyde results.