Chicago Cubs: Is Johnny Cueto a practical trade possibility?

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An in-depth look at Johnny Cueto – World Series champion, past All-Star and Cy Young finalist – potentially rockin’ Chicago Cubs Blue.

One of the more intriguing trade deadline pitching possibilities for the Chicago Cubs includes San Francisco Giants’ ace Johnny Cueto.

Making his MLB debut in 2008, the former longtime Cincinnati Red put up big seasons including 20 wins in 2014, leading the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3) and games started (34).

Cueto has been a top 10 Cy Young finalist, including two top-five finishes, and won a World Series title during his 2015 stopover with the Kansas City Royals. He’s coming off a successful first season with the Giants, winning 18 games and going toe-to-toe with Jon Lester in last year’s NLDS Game 1.

As the Giants’ 2017 season stalls, mired in its worst stretch in years, it’s increasingly likely the club waives the white flag to sell veterans as the trade deadline approaches.

Cueto, in particular, is among the top candidates to be moved, and recent reports indicated he plans to opt-out of his six-year contract signed just prior to the 2016 season.

That ensures it would likely be in the Giants’ best interest to move Cueto, however, questions loom:

Would teams be willing to trade for a potential rental?
Would pending trade agreements revolve around Cueto agreeing not to opt-out, or agreeing to new terms following the 2017 season?

We recently posed the hypothetical of Cueto on the North Side. Now we take an in-depth look at how Cueto could be a fit for the Chicago Cubs.

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Better than advertised

Cueto came off a fantastic season in 2016, winning 18 games, the third-highest total of his career. His 2.79 ERA was also among the best, and he looked to be every bit the ace his $130 million contract indicated.

Of course, that was last year, and now there’s the ugly 2017 campaign.

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Nothing has gone right for the Giants, and that extends to Cueto who has had his own personal adversity on the mound. His numbers resemble nothing close to the Cueto that we are accustomed to. Currently, he’s 5-7 with an ugly 4.20 ERA.

Cueto made 16 starts this season, and has allowed 18 home runs.

In his first 16 starts last season, Cueto allowed just four home runs and had an ERA of 2.67. He gave up 15 home runs all of last season.

Cueto is walking more batters but also striking them out at the same consistency as his career lines. Even his BB/9 (2.50) is still good for 12th in the league among qualified starters.

Cueto isn’t the only Giants’ starter struggling, and while it’s a tad surprising just how bad their starters have been, considering AT&T Park favors pitchers according to ESPN MLB Park Factors, bullpen issues since day one, as well as a rash of injuries, have unraveled the team before being able to gather solid footing.

With Cueto’s All-Star past and Cy Young potential, it’s easier to throw away his 2017 numbers. A recurring blister problem can also speak to his performance issues, and not a deeper injury or mechanical flaw.

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Contract murkiness

Considering the Giants’ situation in the standings, and regardless of the word that Cueto plans to opt-out, trade talks for Cueto can be tricky.

The Chicago Cubs aren’t moving prized prospects for a rental. For any potential trade, Cueto, in some way, shape or form would have to agree to stick it out on the North Side. Whether that means agreeing to a new contract or not opting out following a trade.

What do you give up?

So in this scenario, we’re past the potential trade hurdles.

Cueto has agreed not to opt-out, or Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have made it known a trade for the ace include him being around beyond 2017.

What is the reasonable asking price? No doubt the Giants are going to want a premium haul for the ace, and considering the contract doled out.

Similar to the reported Eloy Jimenez for Chris Archer rumors, the Giants could use any combination of Ian Happ, Albert Almora Jr., Eloy Jimenez, and the likes of Dylan Cease and Duane Underwood have also been previously mentioned. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario could also be of interest.

Those at least represent the larger names that could be offered in a trade.

Brian Sabean could have a lot to say with regards to just how many pieces he would offer up for the right deal. Ian Happ could be San Francisco’s future second baseman or play any of the outfield spots.

Javier Baez seems to be solidifying his place in Chicago, with regards to Addison Russell‘s struggles and ailments much of the season.

Let’s also not forget, Cueto is 31 years old. With a Cubs’ rotation potentially consisting of 34-year-old Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler for now, what kind of commitment would the Cubs seek with Cueto?

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Long term or bust

The current 2017 numbers notwithstanding, Johnny Cueto represents among the top arms available at the trade deadline. With the aforementioned opt-out reports, he would also surface among the top free agent starters.

More will come out regarding Cueto’s trade status, and just what each side, the Giants, and potential trade partners value in the event of a potential short-term rental.

From Chicago’s standpoint, it’s all or nothing.

As last year was about positioning to capture the World Series, this season is all about acquiring sustainable pitching.

It’s a hard pass if a trade for Cueto is a short-lived affair, with no guarantee of a long-term contract. As a potential free agent, the Chicago Cubs could sign Cueto for less than the cost of trading top prospects.

Because it’s only money right?

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