Chicago Cubs: Assessing state of the National League Central

With the Chicago Cubs struggling, it’s time to assess the NL Central, and take stock of the North Siders’ competition

If one hundred baseball fans were polled at the beginning of the season, none would have predicted the Milwaukee Brewers to be in first place on June 21. Instead, many would have said the Chicago Cubs would be running away with the division. However, that has not been the case.

With the Cubs having picked up their 36th win of the season on Tuesday, they pulled within a half of the Brewers. Behind the Cubs are the Pirates and Cardinals who are in a dead-lock at four games off the pace. Even the Cincinnati Reds who are 1-9 in their ten games are still in contention at six and a half games back.

Despite the Cubs’ slow start, one can still foresee the Cubs winning the NL Central for the second year in a row. Still, the Cubs face an uphill battle, as the Brewers will do everything in their power to hold off the defending champions.

Now that the month of June is almost over, let’s assess the Cubs’ competition in the NL Central.

Milwaukee Brewers

38-35

The Brewers jumped out to a slow start as they posted a 2-5 record in their first seven games. Despite his team getting off to a slow start, Eric Thames came out of the gates on fire. Through the team’s first 15 games, Thames slashed .426/.491/1.000 with seven home runs and 12 RBI.

Since posting a .345 average in the month of April, Thames has come back down to earth. The 30-year-old first baseman hit just .221 in May, and .194 thus far in June.

Perhaps one of the brightest spots for the Brewers in 2017 has been third baseman Travis Shaw. Acquired in an off-season trade with the Boston Red Sox, Shaw is slashing .295/.350/.537 with 13 home runs and 48 RBI in 62 games.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups
• Cubs: P.J. Higgins deserves to be in the lineup on a daily basis

Looking at the offensive numbers for the Brewers, it is apparent that Thames and Shaw carry the offense. Shaw leads the team in batting average, RBI, and hits, while Thames leads the team in home runs and OBP.

Pitching will let the Brewers down

Despite solid production from the offense, the Brewers pitching is letting the team down. The Brewers pitching currently ranks 16th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA, and in the bottom half of the majors in WHIP and batting average against.

The Brewers have already used nine pitchers to make 73 starts. Those nine starters have posted an ERA of 4.16. Even with that high ERA, however, the starters have registered 26 wins compared to just 16 losses.

Some signs point in the right direction for the Brewers’ pitching staff, like Chase Anderson‘s 2.92 ERA or Jimmy Nelson‘s 85 strikeouts in 85 inning pitched. However, the Brewers seemly have a revolving door at closer as seven different pitchers have recorded at least one save this season.

Milwaukee seems to have found their closer in Corey Knebel, but they lack enough quality bullpen arms to stay relevant down the stretch.

 Pittsburgh Pirates

33-38

The Pirates were dealt a huge blow in April when All-Star outfielder Starling Marte tested positive for PEDs. As a result of that positive test, Marte was suspended 80 games, and the Pirates lost one of their top outfielders.

With Marte suspended, Andrew McCutchen has been tasked with picking up the slack. Thus far, he has done a good job as he is slashing .268/.343/.494 with 14 home runs and 43 RBI. McCutchen leads Pittsburgh in home runs and RBI, while Josh Harrison leads the team in batting average, OBP, and hits.

Harrison has been able to produce offensively while also playing anywhere he is needed. The 29-year-old has logged innings at second and third base as well as left and right field.

In addition to Harrison and McCutchen, Josh Bell has been solid this season. The rookie who was called up on July 8, 2016, is slashing .230/.313/.451 with 12 home runs and 30 RBI in 71 games this season.

The Pirates’ rotation is full of young arms

Gerrit Cole is the ace of the Pirates’ staff, there is no doubt about it. However, Cole has struggled this season. In 15 starts, Cole is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA, and 74 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings pitched.

With Cole struggling, Ivan Nova has stepped up, and provided the Pirates with a starter they can count on. Nova was acquired by the Pirates last summer from the Yankees, and has done nothing but impress since swapping teams. In 11 starts for the Pirates last season, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA with 52 strikeouts and just three walks in 64 2/3 innings. This season, Nova is off to an even better start. The 30-year-old has made 14 starts, and recorded a 2.91 ERA with 54 strikeouts and nine walks in 96 innings pitched.

Besides Cole and Nova, the Pirates have a young and inexperienced starting rotation. Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, and Tyler Glasnow have made a combined 70 major league starts. This number speaks to the inexperience and youth of the Pirates’ starting rotation.

Aside from their rotation, the Pirates’ bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero. Rivero has appeared in 37 games this season, and has recorded a 0.70 ERA with 41 strikeouts and eight walks in 38 1/3 innings pitched.

Despite their talent, the Pirates are struggling

At only five games back in the division, the Pirates are by no means out of the playoff picture. However, the Pirates will need more production out of their offense if they hope to make it to October.

The Pirates’ offense has scored 304 runs, good for 23rd in the majors. In addition to that, Pittsburgh’s .248 team batting average and .393 slugging percentage rank 20th, and 26th in the majors respectively.

These numbers suggest the Pirates will be out of the playoff picture by August, if not sooner. They are already 11 games back in the Wild Card race, so a division title would be the only way for the Pirates to make the postseason. With lack luster hitting, and young pitching, not many people see that as a possibility.

St. Louis Cardinals

32-37

Before the 2017 season even began, the Cardinals were looking to upgrade their offense. To do that, they signed 2016 World Series champion Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5 million deal. Despite his hefty contract, Fowler has not preformed at his 2016 level. In 65 games, Fowler is slashing .253/.343/.498 with 13 home runs and 35 RBI. While he has tied his home run total from last season, Fowler’s batting average and OBP are lower than last year’s numbers.

Despite Fowler’s solid numbers the Cardinals’ offense has fallen on rough times in 2017. Currently, they rank 25th in runs, 16th in batting average, and 20th in slugging percentage.

Part of the problem has been Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is hitting a modest .247 with 57 strikeouts in 227 at-bats.

Despite some rough-looking numbers, the Cardinals’ hitters have started to come around of late, even if the win column doesn’t show it. In their last seven games, the Cardinals are 2-5. In that same time, both Fowler and Carpenter are hitting over .350, while Yadier Molina is hitting .292.

The Cardinals offense seems to be turning a corner, but the starting pitching has been terrible of late.

Recent starting pitching issues could sink the Cardinals

Over their last seven games, the Cardinals offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game. However, Cardinals’ pitching is allowing just over 6.7 runs per game in the same time frame.

The majority of the problem for the Cardinals over the last week has been the starting pitching. Aside from Carlos Martinez, Cardinals’ starters over the last seven days have an ERA just under 9.00. Overall, in the last week, Cardinals’ pitching has a 5.75 ERA and has allowed 46 earned runs and 16 home runs in 72 innings pitched.

Just as the offense was starting to get it together, the starting staff entered a rough stretch. If the Cardinals hope to make a push toward the postseason, they will need their starting staff to hold together.

Their performances in the last seven games have no doubt been the floor for the Cardinals pitching, and it should only get better from here.

Who is going to challenge the Cubs?

The short answer is no one. Once the Cubs wake up from their slow start, it will be hard for any team in the NL Central to keep pace with the Cubs.

Right now, the Cubs are still the best team in the division. The wealth of talent the Cubs have is unmatched by any team in their division.

With the Cardinals rotation struggling, and the Pirates without one of their top offensive threats, neither St. Louis nor Pittsburgh seems able to challenge the Cubs.

As stated above, the fact that the Brewers are in first place is a fluke. Milwaukee is not built to win right now, and have rode solid performances from some key players to get where they are now.

Expect the division hierarchy to get back to normal soon. The Cubs are winners of their last three, and seem to be figuring it out at the plate.

Next: Chicago Cubs: Has innings total worn Arrieta down?

Even though the Brewers currently hold the lead, this division belongs to the Cubs.