Chicago Cubs: Why the Cubs shouldn’t re-sign John Lackey

Cubs starter and MLB’s favorite cowboy John Lackey is going to be a free agent next year.  Now you may love his southern drawl or his incredibly huge teeth, but the Cubs shouldn’t ink him to a deal this offseason.

According to Baseball Reference, the 38-year-old currently has a 5.26 ERA, a WHIP of 1.381, and is a -0.2 WAR player.  Those numbers don’t reflect the $16 million he’s making.

Despite this, Cubs fans seem to want to try to re-sign Lackey to a one or even two-year deal this offseason.  I get that he’s a lovable guy and that if the offense supports him, they’ll win ballgames.

The thing is, the Cubs would benefit the most by letting him find another team to take him or having him retire, then having him take the bump in Cubbie blue another season.

If a young starter were struggling the way Lackey is right now, that would be one thing.  But John Lackey is not a young starter.

John Lackey has never really been a ‘dominant’ pitcher at any point in his career.  The closest he was to being dominant was in 2014 when he pitched to a 2.77 ERA in 33 games for the rival Cardinals.

2014 is the only season he pitched to under a three ERA (he had a 3.01 ERA in 2007, but that still doesn’t count).  Other than those two years, Lackey is a guy with a career ERA in the fours, which isn’t particularly stellar.

His numbers have jumped significantly from last year to this year.  Even though it’s a small sample size, his ERA went up 1.91 points, his ERA+ is down 42 points, and he is surrounding 1.2 more homers per nine.

If you’ve watched games, Lackey seemingly always gives up a few runs in the first few innings and then battles his way to pitch six innings of five run ball.  That isn’t exactly worth a whopping 16 million big ones.

If there is one thing John Lackey has it’s playoff experience.  It was one of the main reasons why the Cubs decided to bring him in at the end of 2015.

But if you dive into his numbers, the man isn’t exactly Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs.  The three-time World Series champ has pitched decently in the World Series, pitching to a 3.45 ERA in seven total games (five of which he started).

The rest of the playoffs up until last year was much of the same.  But en route to the Cubs’ World Series Championship, Lackey had a 6.75 ERA vs. the Giants, a 4.50 ERA against the Dodgers, and a 3.60 ERA vs. the Indians.

Oh and the John Lackey that gives you quality innings, yeah not the case in last year’s playoffs.  In 3 starts, he pitched a total of 13 innings.

Need I remind you of Game 5 of the 2015 NLDS?  When the Cardinals had their backs against the wall and had their ace on the mound, their ace, John Lackey, pitched a masterful three innings and gave up four earned runs.

Lackey may be perceived as a great playoff pitcher, but perception isn’t always reality.