Chicago Cubs: Candidates for the Cubs’ 2018 starting rotation

The Chicago Cubs are losing 40 percent of their starting rotation after the 2017 season. Here are some possible replacements

The Chicago Cubs front office and many fans knew that the Cubs were going to lose Jake Arrieta and John Lackey after the 2017 season. While losing two-fifths of the rotation will sting, losing Lackey and Arrieta may not be the worst thing that happens to the Chicago Cubs.

In eight starts this season, Arrieta has a 5.44 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. That is a far cry from the 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP Arrieta had in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award, or the 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP he posted a year ago. Yes, Arrieta has thrown two no-hitters in as many years, but that will not be enough for the Cubs to pay the steep asking price Arrieta will no doubt ask for this offseason.

Lackey, on the other hand, will not be re-signed due to his age. The 38-year-old posted solid numbers for the Cubs last season (11-8, 3.35 ERA, 180 Ks, 188 1/3 innings pitched), but he is off to a slow start in 2017.

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So far, Lackey is 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA through seven starts. He has already given up eight home runs and 44 hits in 42 innings pitched. It is not as bad a start as Arrieta, but given Lackey’s age, the Cubs would not be in a position to re-sign the veteran this offseason.

With some holes opening up in their rotation, the Cubs will be in the market for a starting pitcher or two come December.

Let’s take a look at some possible candidates for the 2018 starting rotation.

Eddie Butler

The Chicago Cubs acquired Eddie Butler last offseason in a trade with the Colorado Rockies. It is safe to say that Butler did not live up to his expectations in Colorado. A first round draft pick in 2012, Butler made a total of 36 appearances (28 starts) over three seasons.

In those appearances, Butler recorded a 6.51 ERA and struck out just 94 batters in 159 1/3 innings pitched.

Recently, Butler was called up from Triple-A to replace Brett Anderson in the rotation. Before his call-up, Butler had an ERA of 1.17 in five starts for Iowa. In six innings against the Cardinals on Friday night he was equally as good. Butler tossed six innings of two-hit ball and struck out five while walking three.

With his success on Friday and Anderson’s struggles this season, Butler could take over the rotation spot for the remainder of this season. If that becomes the case, the Cubs have Butler under control until 2022 when he is slated to become a free agent.

Butler could provide the Cubs with a cheap option for their rotation. He could also provide long-term help as he is just 26 years of age.

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray would be a perfect fit for the Cubs. He is young (27 years old) and will not be a free agent until 2020, making him controllable.

Gray was a first round selection by the Oakland Athletics in 2011 after being drafted in the 27th round of the 2008 draft by the Cubs. At 23 years old, Gray broke into the major leagues. From 2013-2015, Gray made 74 starts and appeared in 76 games for Oakland. In those appearances, Gray posted a 2.88 ERA with 419 strikeouts and 153 walks in 491 innings pitched. He also recorded an ERA+ of 133 over that same span.

In 2015, Gray had his best season. He went 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 208 innings pitched. That performance was good enough to earn Gray All-Star Game honors, and propelled him to finish third in the American League Cy Young voting.

Gray’s less-than-stellar 2016 season

Instead of improving upon his exceptional 2015 season, Gray regressed in 2016. He made just 22 starts last season, and posted a 5.69 ERA with 94 strikeouts and 42 walks in 117 innings pitched.

As Gray was attempting to put 2016 behind him, a lat injury forced him to start the 2017 season on the disabled list. Since returning from the DL, Gray has made three starts and posted a 3.78 ERA with nine strikeouts, five walks and an ERA+ of 102 in 16 2/3 innings pitched.

While Gray’s early success in 2017 is promising, it is unclear how much his 2016 struggles affected his value on the open market. One thing is certain, if he continues to post solid numbers, Gray will be a trade target for the Cubs come July. Gray will have two more seasons of team control left and would be young enough to sign an extension if the need arises.

Alec Mills

Alec Mills was acquired by the Cubs last offseason in a trade with the Kansas City Royals. Mills had 3 1/3 innings of major league experience with the Royals during the 2016 season, and is currently at Triple-A Iowa.

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In three starts at Triple-A, Mills has a 3.21 ERA with seven strikeouts and three walks in 14 innings pitched. The 25-year-old has yet to allow a home run this season and is averaging 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

Mills had made 97 appearances during his minor league career with 70 of those being starts. In 2015, Mills made 21 starts for the Royals’ Class-A Advanced affiliate. In those starts, Mills recorded a 3.02 ERA with 111 strikeouts and 14 walks in 113 1/3 innings pitched.

The right-hander enjoyed similar success in 2016 as he made 24 appearances (23 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A. In 125 2/3 innings pitched, Mills registered a 3.22 ERA with 122 strikeouts and just 31 walks.

If Mills can continue to post good numbers at Triple-A, he could be a top candidate for a rotation spot next season.

Mills is another example of the Cubs trading for a young pitcher that has many years of team control left. Mills is not slated to become a free agent until 2023, which will give the youngster an opportunity to grow within the Cubs organization.

Dylan Floro

The Cubs claimed righty Dylan Floro off waivers from the Rays in January 2017.

In 12 appearances for the Rays during the 2016 season, Floro posted a 4.20 ERA with 14 strikeouts and five walks in 15 innings pitched. After getting off to a slow start in Triple-A, Floro was called up to the majors. Floro pitched 4 1/3 innings of relief work in a 10-4 loss to the Colorado Rockies on May 9. Despite the outcome of the game, Floro was solid. He allowed six hits but just one earned run while striking out five batters.

That solid outing sparked the idea that Floro could possibly become a starter for the Cubs at some point in the future. Floro has had success as a starter in the past.

In 23 starts between Single-A and Single-A Advanced during the 2013 season, Floro posted a 1.77 ERA with 99 strikeouts and 21 walks in 137 1/3 innings pitched. While Floro made 50 combined starts in 2014 and 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, he never enjoyed that same success.

The 26-year-old has made one start the last two seasons. Despite that, Floro has shown he can be successful pitching more than one inning per appearance at the major league level.

Chris Archer

Chris Archer may be the most expensive option for the Cubs’ future rotation. He will not be expensive in terms of money, but rather in terms of what the Cubs would have to give up to acquire the 28-year-old.

The asking price for Archer would be steep because of his stellar play from 2013-2015. During that stretch, Archer made 89 starts and posted a 3.26 ERA. In addition to his great ERA, Archer struck out 526 batters in 535 1/3 innings pitched. That equates to 8.8 batters per nine innings.

While Archer excelled during those three seasons, he came back down to earth in 2016. In 33 starts, Archer went 9-19 with a 4.02 ERA and 233 strikeouts in 201 1/3 innings pitched. Due to that less than stellar season, Archer’s value may have slipped ever so slightly.

Big prospect dump unlikely, but possible

Still, one can imagine that the Rays will want at least two top prospects for a pitcher like Archer. For the Cubs, those two prospects could come in the form of Ian Happ and Eloy Jimenez.

The only way the Cubs give up another bundle of prospects at the trade deadline is if they are certain they know what they are getting in return. With Archer, you can just about count on a great performance every time he takes the mound. Archer posted ERA’s of 3.22, 3.33, and 3.23 in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. Yes, he regressed some in 2016, but he is showing signs of a bounce back year in 2017.

In eight starts, Archer is 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings pitched.

If Archer can put together a solid season, expect the Cubs to be in hot pursuit of Archer at the trade deadline; for the right price of course.