Chicago Cubs: Breaking down Jake Arrieta’s ineffectiveness in 2017

One of the biggest holes in the 2017 Chicago Cubs comes in the form of Jake Arrieta. The right-hander hasn’t pitched well, leaving a void in the staff.

Down the stretch in 2015, Chicago Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta put together arguably the best second-half in Major League Baseball history. En route to the National League Cy Young Award, Arrieta went 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA after the All-Star Break.

That dominance continued into the early months of last season. In April and May, Arrieta combined for a 9-0 record with a sub-2.00 earned run average in 11 starts. He looked poised to repeat as the league’s best hurler.

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But, soon, he took a step backward. The rest of the season, he never posted a single-month ERA below 3.00 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio trended downward from 2015. He stepped up in a big way come October, though, helping lead the Cubs to a World Series title.

Entering a contract year, 2017 may be the single most-important season in Arrieta’s big-league career. And, suffice to say, it hasn’t gone as he had hoped.

Arrieta gets the call on Sunday in the series finale against the Cardinals. Carrying a 5.35 ERA into that outing, clearly something has to change if he hopes to land the mega-deal he was seeking this winter.

So why the decline for the hard-working right-hander? Let’s look at what the numbers say, in hopes of uncovering a way forward for the Chicago ace.

Who is hitting Arrieta and how?

Breaking down all the numbers against Jake Arrieta can be a bit overwhelming. So we decided to boil it down to three main points that need addressing:

1. Control the top of the order
2. Get ahead in the count
3. Thrive under pressure

Let’s start with the first point.

In his seven starts this year, the top two hitters in opposing lineups have feasted on the right-hander. Leadoff men are batting .316/.381/.526 and the two-hole bats come in even hotter at .368/.429/.789 – good for a 213 OPS+.

This goes hand-in-hand with the Cubs’ first-inning woes on the mound. Arrieta has a 12.86 earned run average in the first. To be blunt, it’s near-impossible to have success when you dig yourself a hole like that.

I, personally, think of the first inning as a typically ‘low leverage’ situation. It’s in these situations Arrieta finds the most success, limiting opponents to a .292 OBP this season. We’re probably oversimplifying things, but if he wants to turn things around, the right-hander must take care of business early and settle in.

Falling behind batters

Sounds simple enough, but, in reality, it’s been a real struggle for Arrieta. The former Orioles prospect has seen drastically different results based on the result of the first pitch of an at-bat.

The more the count tilts in favor of the batter, the worse Arrieta has fared. In the past, he worked these situations back in his favor, relying on pinpoint control to work out of trouble. But he’s struggled to do so in 2017.

In the free-swinging 3-1 counts, opponents are batting a staggering .600 against Arrieta – to go along with a 1.369 OPS. And once these men reach, teammates are driving them in at a staggering rate (.462/.511/.692).

Compare those numbers to his record-setting 2015 campaign.

Arrieta found himself in just 24 3-1 counts the entire season. He’s already found himself in that situation 13 times in 2017. It’s not a matter of just failing to execute. The Chicago workhorse is setting himself up to fail by falling behind hitters more often than not.

Stepping up in the big moments

During his Cubs career, Jake Arrieta has always embraced the challenging moments. In 2015, he pitched Chicago past the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game, twirling a masterful shutout. Last season, he stepped up in the World Series, delivering several quality outings against the Indians.

Needless to say, there’s no fear in the right-hander.

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Still, in 2017, the ‘big’ moments where pressure mounts have gotten to Arrieta. Opponents are winning these battles far more than in the past. According to Baseball Reference, hitters are coming out on top in both high and medium-leverage situations.

In high-leverage showdowns, batters are hitting .350/.391/.550 against Arrieta. In medium-leverage matchups, he’s been a bit more effective, but still struggled at .329/.373/.443. Those numbers really pop when you take into account how good he’s been in low-leverage at-bats, limiting opponents to a .231/.292/.492 slash-line this season.

Missing more bats

Simply put, he’s not missing bats like he has in the past. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in high-leverage situations is an even 1.00. Compare that to his low-leverage mark of 3.50 S0/BB.

With runners in scoring position, he seems to always be one good pitch away from working out of a jam. Opponents are white-hot this year against Arrieta in these situations, batting .462/.511/.692. By contrast, when the bases are empty, he’s held batters to a cool .222/.278/.433 line.

Being the guy in tense situations is what made Jake Arrieta into the best pitcher in the National League as recently as last spring. Getting back to that will set him up for his much-sought payday at the end of the season.