Chicago Cubs: Breaking down Jake Arrieta’s ineffectiveness in 2017

One of the biggest holes in the 2017 Chicago Cubs comes in the form of Jake Arrieta. The right-hander hasn’t pitched well, leaving a void in the staff.

Down the stretch in 2015, Chicago Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta put together arguably the best second-half in Major League Baseball history. En route to the National League Cy Young Award, Arrieta went 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA after the All-Star Break.

That dominance continued into the early months of last season. In April and May, Arrieta combined for a 9-0 record with a sub-2.00 earned run average in 11 starts. He looked poised to repeat as the league’s best hurler.

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But, soon, he took a step backward. The rest of the season, he never posted a single-month ERA below 3.00 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio trended downward from 2015. He stepped up in a big way come October, though, helping lead the Cubs to a World Series title.

Entering a contract year, 2017 may be the single most-important season in Arrieta’s big-league career. And, suffice to say, it hasn’t gone as he had hoped.

Arrieta gets the call on Sunday in the series finale against the Cardinals. Carrying a 5.35 ERA into that outing, clearly something has to change if he hopes to land the mega-deal he was seeking this winter.

So why the decline for the hard-working right-hander? Let’s look at what the numbers say, in hopes of uncovering a way forward for the Chicago ace.

Falling behind batters

Sounds simple enough, but, in reality, it’s been a real struggle for Arrieta. The former Orioles prospect has seen drastically different results based on the result of the first pitch of an at-bat.

The more the count tilts in favor of the batter, the worse Arrieta has fared. In the past, he worked these situations back in his favor, relying on pinpoint control to work out of trouble. But he’s struggled to do so in 2017.

In the free-swinging 3-1 counts, opponents are batting a staggering .600 against Arrieta – to go along with a 1.369 OPS. And once these men reach, teammates are driving them in at a staggering rate (.462/.511/.692).

Compare those numbers to his record-setting 2015 campaign.

Arrieta found himself in just 24 3-1 counts the entire season. He’s already found himself in that situation 13 times in 2017. It’s not a matter of just failing to execute. The Chicago workhorse is setting himself up to fail by falling behind hitters more often than not.

Stepping up in the big moments

During his Cubs career, Jake Arrieta has always embraced the challenging moments. In 2015, he pitched Chicago past the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game, twirling a masterful shutout. Last season, he stepped up in the World Series, delivering several quality outings against the Indians.

Needless to say, there’s no fear in the right-hander.

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Still, in 2017, the ‘big’ moments where pressure mounts have gotten to Arrieta. Opponents are winning these battles far more than in the past. According to Baseball Reference, hitters are coming out on top in both high and medium-leverage situations.

In high-leverage showdowns, batters are hitting .350/.391/.550 against Arrieta. In medium-leverage matchups, he’s been a bit more effective, but still struggled at .329/.373/.443. Those numbers really pop when you take into account how good he’s been in low-leverage at-bats, limiting opponents to a .231/.292/.492 slash-line this season.

Missing more bats

Simply put, he’s not missing bats like he has in the past. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in high-leverage situations is an even 1.00. Compare that to his low-leverage mark of 3.50 S0/BB.

With runners in scoring position, he seems to always be one good pitch away from working out of a jam. Opponents are white-hot this year against Arrieta in these situations, batting .462/.511/.692. By contrast, when the bases are empty, he’s held batters to a cool .222/.278/.433 line.

Being the guy in tense situations is what made Jake Arrieta into the best pitcher in the National League as recently as last spring. Getting back to that will set him up for his much-sought payday at the end of the season.

Taking what comes natural

In the end, we can break down numbers and pitch usage all day long. But what it really seems to come down to, in my opinion, is not forcing the issue.

Arrieta is a workhorse – a perfectionist, even. He has a deep desire to be the best. Not even the best on the Cubs staff – but the best in all of Major League Baseball. Add in the fact that his performance this year could greatly impact what kind of long-term deal he nets this winter and it’s easy to see why he might be forcing things a bit.

We’re still not even two months into the season. He’s shown signs of his old self. What he needs most is a dominant start to get him back on-track moving forward, for both the team and his own sake.

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