Chicago Cubs: The most effective lineup they have isn’t being used

While the offense is scoring runs, the daily lineup used by the Chicago Cubs is not effective enough. How should the lineup be structured?

The start to the season for the Chicago Cubs can be called one thing: average. It is not what we expected or hoped. Still, they’re tied for the NL Central lead. That said, it could be better.

Maybe it is the hangover of playing long, pressure-filled series in the playoffs. Or the six-month celebration by the team and fans during the offseason that spilled into April. Whatever the reasons for the slower-than-expected start, the Cubs are still treading water.

The pitching has been a concern, but improvements are being witnessed. The first inning runs are an issue. After two straight not allowing a run in the first, that came to an end last night with Brett Anderson‘s outing. The bullpen has been solid overall, with minor cracks in their armor to this point. While the staff is not the best in baseball statically right now, they are keeping the team in most games.

What should be a concern is the offense. With 144 runs scored in in 29 games, the Cubs sit seventh in all of baseball for scoring. They trail the MLB-leading Washington Nationals by 39 runs going into play Saturday. The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers are a few runs ahead of the Cubs as well.

The team is scoring five runs per game and leaving almost eight runners on base. With an on-base percentage of .337 (fourth in baseball), opportunities to score are abundant. Furthermore, they Cubs take the extra base 48% of the time, with is fourth in the MLB. However, batting .229 with runners in scoring position, the team is only hurting themselves.

Maybe it is time to change the lineup. Where is what I propose.

Now leading off…

Be prepared for an unpopular opinion: The “Kyle Schwarber project” needs to be trashed. Yes, I get that he only truly leads off one time per game. And there are other opportunities to take advantage of his approach. The problem is this: manager Joe Maddon is not using Schwarber’s talent in a place where they will experience success.

In 2015, Schwarber took the world over, storming in and crushing the ball. He finished the season with a .246/.355/.487 slash line, including 16 home runs and 52 runs in 59 games. During the postseason, Schwarber carried the Chicago Cubs, hitting .333 with five home runs.  Furthermore, while missing all of 2016, Schwarber made it back into the lineup for the World Series. A .412/.500/.471 slash line and aggressive base running achieved and established him as a key piece as a designated hitter.

Schwarber is a big-swinging, aggressive batter that excels early in the count. Batting leading requires more patience and taking pitches. When the count is 0-1, Schwarber hits .348. Ten of his home runs have come with zero-strike counts. If he is ahead in the count, he hits .316. Now, the team is asking him to show patience, and work counts. That is not his wheelhouse.

It is, however, a great spot for Jon Jay or Albert Almora. Jay has the most experience leading off or in the second spot in the order for his career. And, while Almora is young, he is proving his ability to be a producing member of the line-up. That said, I would not put either one of them in the leadoff spot. Who then?

Jason Heyward

This is what we know: Jason Heyward put in the work this offseason, improving his contact numbers at the plate. While the average is dipping a bit right now, is he getting on base 33% of the time. His speed plays off the team’s desire to take the extra base. Plus, he would be asked to take a few more pitches and protect the zone. Free swings the last few weeks is the cause for his recent decline at the plate. We know that he is going to be in the lineup most days. Consistency and availability are what the leadoff position requires.

Batting second…

Kris Bryant is the MVP of the National League, and the Chicago Cubs. His ability to hit is not in question. The good thing is that his swing will travel wherever he is slotted in the lineup. And, it should not be second. There is at least one, if not two, players that could go here and do extremely well in this lineup. No. Not Jon Jay or Ben Zobrist. Think bigger.

Got it yet? Shocked? But, it makes sense.

Kyle Schwarber hit second in the final two games of the World Series. It was probably some of his best at-bats in the series. Four hits, and walk, and a run in nine at-bats. And, no strikeouts. Plus a stolen base. Get a runner on in front of him and pitchers are required to throw around the plate more and low, hoping to gain a ground ball. That is not what Schwarber does.  When Kyle can be Kyle, 85% of his contact is either medium or hard. He will hit a grounder, but typically hard enough to get through the infield.

The other option here is another shocker. Anthony Rizzo. Fact: Rizzo’s highest average and on-base percentages with 200 or more plate appearances is when he is slotted second. Granted, most of his career has been in the third or fourth spot, but he is .291/.396/.519 when batting second. And, he averages a home run every 17 at-bats in the two hole, a full 4 at-bats better than where he hits now.

So, my pick for hitting in the second spot of the order is…

Anthony Rizzo.

In the third spot…

This is the place tailor-made for one person only. That batter is Kris Bryant. With all the work on his swing and two solid batters ahead of him, Bryant can unleash his potential on opposing pitchers at a great rate.

The numbers between Bryant hitting second or third are similar. In 140 games batting second, he has 32 home runs, 30 doubles, 72 walks and 155 strikeouts. Before batting second, he was slotted third in 130 games. Here, he achieved 30 home runs, 25 doubles, 61 walks, and 163 strikeouts. The averages are not as close, going .297 and .265, respectively. However, remember that Bryant switched to second in the order after Dexter Fowler went on the disabled list last year. A good portion of his rookie season and part of 2016 were from the third spot.

Bryant excels in one area over other batters in the Chicago Cubs lineup. With runners on base, he hit .308. When they are in scoring position, he averages .292. It does not matter how many outs, when runners are on base, Bryant hits. With two capable batters ahead of his, hitting third means driving in runs and moving others over. That is what you want from your third-place batter.

Cleaning up…

There are a few reasons why I like Kyle Schwarber here. First of all, he is a better-than-average, prototypical cleanup hitter. He can smash the ball, and drive the ball. And he can take a base as well. Even with a .193 batting average, his on-base percentage is .313. Secondly, he is a power-hitting left-handed batter. The flow of left-left-right-left batters generates the proverbial paradiddle (you are welcome, drummers) of batting that no other team possesses.

But, it is a different reason that Schwarber needs to be cleaning up. That is his aggressiveness. While it is more controlled that other batters, Schwarber’s swing is hard and fierce. The fact that an overwhelming majority of his contact his medium or harder is key. It is better than Anthony Rizzo’s contact percentages and similar to that of Kris Bryant’s. But, where Bryant can spray the ball, Schwarber pulls hard. And it goes far.

And, again, runners on means more pitches around the plate. That, in turn, means more fastballs or a breaking ball that hangs in the zone can be targeted. With two runners on and less than two outs, Schwarber is a .286 hitter. No outs and two on? That goes to .333. It just makes sense to me.

Batting fifth…

This is where things get a bit tricky. The overall depth of the Chicago Cubs, and the fact that the pitcher bats eighth, means the next three hitters serve two purposes. Should the bases be empty, the fifth batter is tasked with restarting the rally. If there are runners on base, you are to get them over or in. Thus, the fifth batter needs to know situational batting well, and able to execute.

Ben Zobrist is that batter.

Few in baseball have the ability to hit line drives to all fields like Zobrist. Or to hit behind runners and moving them over. He can hit a home run when needed, and he can take a walk. After a pitcher faces the gauntlet of the first four batters, facing Zobrist does nothing to relax them. They know he will fight of pitches and work counts. And, if he gets on base, he knows when to extend 90 into 180 feet. Not many any baseball have the intelligence and baseball acumen of Ben Zobrist.

In the six hole…

Another chance to drive in runs. A chance to put pressure on a pitcher. And, a chance to be aggressive. This spot is reserved for Addison Russell. April has never been a great month for Russell, hitting .231 in April for his career. June is even lower. But May is his best time. And the Chicago Cubs need it right now.

Russell has two strengths in batting. First, get two runners on base with less than two outs, he will take care of the rest. In such situations, he hits for an average of .348 or better. Of his 36 career home runs, 17 are with men on base. Secondly, if the pressure is lower, he can turn it up a notch. While his average is higher in high leverage situations, his overall production happens when the tension is not as great. Sure, you want him to come through in the clutch, but Russell can create a situation so that other can take advantage of it.

What is interesting about Russell’s statics is his performance by the inning. In the first three innings of a game, he produces to a .290/.344/.455 split. After that, it drops to the .220’s. A good reason to consider him for leading off a game. But, for now, batting sixth will work fine.

Now batting seventh…

In the Chicago Cubs lineup, there is no more relaxed position than the seventh spot in the order. Why? Because either you extend the inning or you end it. Either way, it is probably fine. With the pitcher batting eighth in Joe Maddon‘s order, whoever bats seventh can take a few chances. If the bases are occupied, then trying to drive the ball is advisable. Bases empty? Taking a chance on either a home run or extending a hit into extra bases is fine. And, since the catcher has not appeared here, this is a great spot.

This spot fits Willson Contreras and Miguel Montero. Both of them can drive the ball, and both can swing free a bit. But, the pressure to do one thing or another is off their shoulders simply because the pitcher is next. Whether ending an inning or continue the rally, the odds of out number three coming next are high. That simply resets the lineup for the next inning.

The best thing about Contreras here is that he takes chances with the bat and on the bases. Sometimes it works out well. Other times not. And, for Montero, he can pull the ball up the right field line and push runners across. He may not be as fast as Contreras, but his intelligence rarely runs the Cubs out of an inning. Either way, this is where they belong.

Batting ninth…

This leaves Jon Jay and Albert Almora. In any other lineup, they would be higher in the order. Not with the Chicago Cubs, but that is because the role is different here. The ninth batter is considered a secondary leadoff hitter. Their role is to get on base in front of the Bryzzo Souvenir  Company. They get on and let a ball get “Bryzzo’d.”

It all depends on the match-up. If a left-handed pitcher in on the mound, Almora is likely to start. So far, the MLB top 100 prospect is proving he can handle the job. Already with similar stats to last season, Almora is quickly learning how to hit. His five walks equal what he did last year in half the at-bats. He is hitting for a better average and getting on base more than before. And, like other young players, his speed and aggressiveness can lead to more bases taken. It worked in the World Series, and it will now.

Of all players, Jay may be the biggest surprise offensively. He never drives in a ton of runs, be he can score them. To this point of the season, his 10 runs scored are just behind Jason Heyward and Javier Baez, but 30+ fewer at-bats. Jay is earning an everyday position with a team and should be considered for more play with the Cubs. The talent of the team just pushes him to the bench.