Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester’s early season struggles a mild concern

The early season struggles of the pitching rotation continued yesterday as Chicago Cubs’ ace Jon Lester allowed five early runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

A month into the season and the storylines for the Chicago Cubs come more into focus. Overall, the team must find consistency and balance. At the start of the season, the bullpen struggled. Then it was the offense, which still has moments of futility. But, most recently, it is the starting rotation.

Entering play on Wednesday, the Cubs’ rotation allowed first-inning runs in 10 games, and were second-worst in the National League in terms of first inning runs allowed. Furthermore, the starters have given up 16 home runs. Both of those trends continued on Wednesday as Jon Lester took the mound against the Pirates.

Less Lester

The stats are not horrible, and there is still plenty of baseball to come. That said, Jon Lester is less like the Jon Lester we know and love. In five starts, he is yet to be called a winner. His previous start in Cincinnati was uncharacteristic as he allowed five runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. His ERA jumped from 1.00 to 2.66.

Lester took the mound on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. Different city, but same results. In 5 2/3 innings, the Pirates scored five runs on 10 hits. This included two home runs and two first inning runs. The hole created by Lester was too large to summit, even though the team had chances.

With this performance, Lester’s ERA is up to 3.68. Again, not horrible but not like the Jon Lester that finished second in Cy Young voting last year. Which brings the question: What is eating Jon Lester?

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The problems

Ever watch the movie “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape”? It is a movie from 1994 about loss and facing challenges.

In it, Becky (played by Juliette Lewis) requests one thing from several others: Tell me what you want as fast as it comes to you. Right now, Jon Lester just wants to feel comfortable.

Maybe it is because David Ross is not his personal catcher. Or that teams are dancing off first base. It could even be the different defense behind him. Any way you slice it, Lester is not the same Lester. And hitters know it.

So far this season, opponents are hitting .279 off Lester’s fastball, compared to .202 last year. The velocity is only slightly slower than before, but it is enough for batters to make solid contact. When they do make contact, it is a flyball 36.6 percent of the time. That is a stark difference since he joined the Cubs.

Additionally, pitches are crossing over the middle of the plate at a higher rate than before. Of all pitches, 42.6 percent are located in the bottom half of the strike zone and over the plate. Lester is serving up pitches on a platter, and opponents are feasting.

The Solution

Lester and catcher Willson Contreras must work the edges of the plate. At least find the umpire’s edge of the plate and focus attention there. He is not getting inside on right-handed batters, leaving pitches in positions to hit. Nor is he getting the inside corner on left-handed hitters. Part of that is the umpire, but more of it is on Contreras.

The way Contreras  sets up is important. Comparing him to Ross, Contreras’s commonly centers his body behind the plate. Yes, he moves in and out as the pitch dictates, even so, most of his body is behind the plate. Ross would center himself on the edge, giving Lester to cleaner target. It also meant he moved less if the ball traveled away too much.

The season is long, but if the rotation does not turn things around, contending will be a challenge. It starts with Jon Lester. The rest will follow.