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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Chicago Cubs begin a nine-game road trip Friday night, facing off against the first place Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark.
After a so-so start, the Chicago Cubs are looking to take over first place in the NL Central division this weekend. At 8-7, the Cubs are 0.5 games behind the first place and 9-7 Cincinnati Reds.
The Cubs could put the Reds’ surprising start to the test this weekend. One should not discredit the Reds, but the rest of the NL Central has struggled so far this season.
While the Cubs are one game above .500, the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are both several games under. Entering this season, many viewed these three as the best bets to win win the division.
Obviously, these slow starts could mean nothing, as there is plenty of baseball left to play. Likewise, the Reds’ hot start is impressive, but one would expect the rebuilding team to fade off at some point.
This week, the Cubs took two of three games from the Milwaukee Brewers, both come-from-behind victories. After losing Monday night 6-3, the Cubs erased a 5-0 deficit Tuesday en route to a 9-7 win. Wednesday, the Cubs were down 4-3 entering the 9th inning before Addison Russell’s walk-off three-run home run.
The Reds lost two of three games against the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week. After beating the Orioles 9-3 Monday, Cincinnati dropped the next two games 2-0 and 2-1. In those losses, the Reds had just two hits in each game. Both the Cubs and Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
Without a doubt, the Cubs have a definitive advantage in starting pitching over the Reds. Friday night, Jon Lester will take the mound against Reds starter Tim Adleman. It will be Adleman’s first start of the season, and just the 14th start in his young big league career.
Last season, Adleman went 4-4 in 13 games (all starts) with a 4.00 ERA; in four innings this season, he is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Despite Friday being his fourth start, Lester is still looking for his first win of the season.
In 2016, Lester was flat out dominant in his 32 starts, going 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA. Although he is winless thus far, Lester has a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings to go alongside 17 strikeouts.
Saturday’s matchup will continue the trend of a disparity in experience between the two clubs’ starting pitching. 24-year-old Cody Reed will make his first start of the season, facing off against Jake Arrieta.
In 10 starts last season, Reed went 0-7 with a 7.36 ERA; in four appearances (eight innings) this season, he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Arrieta has started hot in 2017 a year after going 18-10 with a 3.10 ERA in 31 starts. In three starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA, striking out 21 batters in 18.2 IP.
Sunday’s series finale is a throwback featuring two of the game’s most tenured starting pitchers. 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo will face-off against 38-year-old John Lackey; Arroyo will make his fourth start of 2017 after missing the previous two seasons.
Arroyo is 1-2 with an 8.40 ERA in three starts this season, giving up 14 earned runs in 18.0 IP. Lackey is also 1-2 (with a 4.00 ERA) in three starts this season, striking out 19 batters in 18.0 IP.
Through their first 15 games this season, the Cubs’ bullpen has been all over the place. In fact, Cubs’ relievers are responsible for four of the team’s seven losses so far. Despite this being true, several of the team’s relievers have had solid starts to the season.
In eight appearances (7.1 IP) this season, closer Wade Davis has a 0.00 ERA, three saves and seven strikeouts. After struggling this spring, Hector Rondon has a 1.42 ERA in seven appearances (6.1 IP) along with nine strikeouts.
It is rather baffling that Cubs relievers have been responsible for four losses this far. Between the eight relievers, five have an ERA under 3.00; Carl Edwards Jr. has a 0.00 in 5.2 IP; Mike Montgomery has a 2.79 ERA in 9.2 IP; Koji Uehara has a 2.70 ERA in 6.2 IP.
Where the Cubs have run into bullpen issues is with their innings-eaters, Justin Grimm and Pedro Strop. Grimm and Strop have been relied upon to make 60+ appearances each since arriving in Chicago. The team needs both players to be more consistent than they have been so far.
Grimm has an 8.10 ERA in 6.2 IP, while Strop has a 6.75 ERA in 5.1 IP. Both have allowed a crushing home run in one appearance, coming in back-to-back losses against the Pirates. One player should not carry the entire blame for a loss in baseball, but Grimm and Strop can do better.
The Reds’ bullpen has been quite successful in holding the opposition this season, ranking fifth in baseball with a 2.43 ERA. Closer Raisel Iglesias has 0.93 ERA in 9.2 IP; former Nationals closer Drew Storen has a 1.23 ERA in 7.1 IP; Wandy Peralta has a 1.42 ERA in 6.1 IP. If the Reds have a late-game lead, the Cubs could be in trouble.
On paper, the Cubs have a far more formidable group of position players than the Reds. However, the Reds should not be taken lightly, as they have a lineup of talented players themselves. Joey Votto and Adam Duvall have combined to hit nine home runs and 21 RBI.
For the sake of comparison, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have a combined three home runs and 12 RBI. Kyle Schwarber does not look like a “typical” leadoff hitter, but he has outplayed Billy Hamilton of the Reds.
In 56 at-bats, Schwarber is hitting .232 with a .368 OBP and an .814 OPS; in 62 at-bats, Hamilton is hitting .226 with a .269 OBP and .543 OPS. Shortstop Zack Cozart is hitting .400 with one home run and eight RBI in 45 at-bats; Russell is hitting .254 with two home runs and 12 RBI in 59 at-bats.
RF Jason Heyward is off to a much better start than last season, hitting .294 in 51 at-bats. He is hitting .341 on balls in play, meaning he is finding his way on base when he hits the ball. Meanwhile, Reds RF Scott Schebler is hitting .160 in 50 at-bats, hitting just .143 on balls in play.
Even though the Cubs have more notable names in their lineup, the Reds have scored more runs this season. In 16 games, they have scored 72 times and have 129 hits; the Cubs have scored 66 runs on 131 hits. Great American Ballpark is known to be kind to hitters, so do not be surprised if plenty of runs are scored this series.