Chicago Cubs: Five players who will regress in 2017

Five Cubs players who will not perform the way they did in 2016

There are many reasons why a player, or a team, regress from year to year. Usually, injury plays a part in the regression of a player, but that is not the case all the time.

The Chicago Cubs won the World Series in 2016, everyone knows that by now. They ended a 108-year championship drought, and in the process put up some great statistical numbers.

As a team, the Cubs scored 808 runs (3rd best in baseball), posted a team OBP of .343 (2nd in baseball), and had a team OPS+ of 107 (3rd best in baseball).

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On the pitching side of the ball, the Cubs were equally as good. The Cubs posted a 3.15 team ERA (best in baseball), struck out 1,441 batters (3rd best in baseball), and recorded a 1.11 WHIP (lowest in baseball).

As you can see, the Cubs ranked high on many leaderboards during the 2016 season. Due to that, some of the players that helped the Cubs achieve that may not be up for the task in 2017. The reason why is not injury-related, it’s simply that the Cubs were so good that their 2016 numbers will be hard to beat.

Here are five Chicago Cubs players who will regress in the 2017 season.

Addison Russell

2016 stats: .238, 21 HR, 95 RBI

There is no doubt that Addison Russell is one of the game’s best shortstops. The 23-year-old saved 19 runs defensively in 1,262 2/3 innings at shortstop in 2016.

In addition to his great work in the field, Russell put up great numbers at the plate. He hit 21 home runs and drove in 95 runs while hitting a modest .238.

Russell has only been in the big leagues two full seasons. Even though he did greatly increase his offensive numbers in 2016, do not expect those numbers to increase in 2017.

Even though Russell improved his strikeout rate from 31.3% in 2015 to 25.7% in 2016, his batting average decreased.

Russell will need to continue to cut down his strikeout rate if he wants to secure his name with the best shortstops in the league.

In 2017, Russell should improve upon his 2016 batting average. Expect to see his home run and RBI totals drop this season. The reason for the decrease is that his numbers in 2016 were close to the ceiling of what to expect from Russell.

The youngster will have a good year defensively but expect him to take a step back at the plate in the upcoming season.

Ben Zobrist

2016 stats: .272, 18 HR, 76 RBI

Ben Zobrist is playing the role of a super-utility man for the Cubs in 2017. He will play second base, left field, and right field. Zobrist is use to playing all over the diamond, but that could hurt him in 2017.

With Javier Baez slated to get more playing time, and Albert Almora coming along in the outfield, Zobrist could become the odd man out in Chicago. It’s crazy to say that about the 2016 World Series MVP, but the 35-year-old may start feeling his age in 2017.

Last season, Zobrist bounced back from a 1.9 WAR season in 2015 to a 3.8 WAR season in 2016. Despite that rise in WAR, Zobrist’s strikeout rate increased from 11.9% in 2015 to 15.7% in 2016. While that may not seem like a big deal, any rise in strikeout rate is not a good sign.

Zobrist clubbed the third most home runs in a season in his career in 2016 with 18. He has jumped out to a quick start in 2017 by hitting two so far but expect Zobrist to cool off some as the season moves forward.

Zobrist has a career .358 OBP. In 2016, Zobrist recorded a .386 mark, which was the second highest of his career. That number will be hard to beat in 2017, but Zobrist should remain a good on-base guy, just not at the level he was at in 2016.

Some of the younger guys will cut into Zobrist’s playing time in 2017. His ability to play all over the place will help keep him in the line-up, but he is 35 years old, and it remains to be seen how that will affect him in 2017.

John Lackey

2016 stats: 11-8, 3.35 ERA, 180 K’s

John Lackey had a great season in 2016. He made 29 starts for the Cubs, and struck out 180 batters in 188 1/3 innings pitched. In addition to striking out almost a batter an inning, Lackey posted a career low WHIP in 2016 (1.06).

The 14-year veteran should get back to his career norms in 2017. That would mean Lackey would have an ERA close to 4.00 with around 15 wins. Expect to see a drop in strikeouts for Lackey this season.

If you look at Lackey’s number’s, you will see that he averages about 0.80 strikeouts per inning. Combine that with the idea that Lackey averages about 191 innings a season, and you can figure that Lackey will strike out about 153 batters in 2017. That is considerably lower than his total in 2016, but would still be normal for Lackey.

It will be hard for the 38-year-old to repeat his 3.35 ERA in 2017. The fiery veteran will do everything in his power to provide the Cubs with as many innings and starts as possible. The fact is, however, that Lackey has lost some zip on his pitches over the years. That will start to catch up with him in 2017 as he enters the last year of his contract with the Cubs.

Hector Rondon

2016 stats: 54 appearances, 3.53 ERA, 58 K’s

Hector Rondon is being squeezed out in Chicago. Rondon was the Cubs closer for two a half seasons. That ended when Aroldis Chapman was brought in at the trade deadline in 2016. Rondon’s role diminished even further when the Cubs brought in Koji Uehara and new closer Wade Davis this off-season.

With Carl Edwards Jr., Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, and others vying for spots in the bullpen, Rondon may begin to see a decrease in his appearances.

That decrease may have already started. Rondon’s appearances dropped from 72 in 2015, to 54 in 2016. That decrease in appearances may have been helped by a triceps injury suffered in August of last year. However, the right-handed heavy Cubs bullpen will not be a place Rondon will thrive in, in 2017.

Even though Rondon saw his role shrink in 2016, he still put up good numbers. He recorded a 3.53 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP in 51 innings pitched.

After struggling in the World Baseball Classic with Team Venezuela, many may be concerned about Rondon’s ability to shut down teams late.

With his play in the WBC in the back of his mind, manager Joe Maddon may be reluctant to use Rondon over more consistent options.

Expect to see Rondon’s appearances drop even further from the 2016 season. He will more than likely appear in 40-50 games for the Cubs in 2017. With that drop in appearances, it will be hard for Rondon to maintain consistency from outing to outing.

   Kyle Hendricks

2016 stats: 2.13 ERA, 16-8, 170 K’s

Kyle Hendricks had the lowest ERA of any qualified starting pitcher in 2016. Hendricks posted a 2.13 ERA with 170 strikeouts in 190 innings pitched last season.

That great season from Hendricks came in just his second full season in a big-league uniform. The 27-year-old Hendricks uses control, not velocity, to keep hitters off-balance at the plate. Now that hitters know Hendricks’ game plan, they may be more patient against him.

Even if Hendricks can make adjustments against hitters who have no doubt made adjustments against him, it will be hard to duplicate his 2016 season.

Hendricks has a career 2.96 ERA. It is in a relatively small sample size (456.1 innings), but it provides us with an idea as to what kind of pitcher Hendricks will revert to.

Slotted into the number five-spot in the rotation for the Cubs, Hendricks is possibly the best number five starter in baseball. With that being said, Hendricks’ 2017 season will feature a higher ERA, and WHIP. It will simply be too difficult to repeat the type of performance he put up in 2017.

Hendricks will win right around 15 games again in 2017. He will likely join the 200 inning club this year, but expect a 3.00+ ERA and 1.10+ WHIP.