Chicago Cubs: Predicting the standings in the National League Central

Opening Night is just days away. As teams finish Spring Training and trim rosters, the National LeagueCentral is coming into focus. It is the Chicago Cubs’ to lose?

The day 108 years in the making is upon us! The reigning World Series Champions will begin their repeat campaign in St. Louis. And, for once, it is not the team from that city. It is our beloved Chicago Cubs.

Now, let us not get (too far) ahead of ourselves. Defending a championship is difficult….unless you are the UConn Huskies Women’s basketball The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will end with a new champion this year. The NFL has not witnessed a repeat champion since the 2004-2005 New England Patriots. One National League team has won the World Series in back-to-back years in the last 95 years. That was the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds.

Before the Cubs can win the World Series, they must get through their own division. While that came easy in 2016, it may not be that way this season. Moves were made. Players changed teams. How will that affect the division? Here is how we see it shaking out.

Fifth Place: Cincinnati Reds

In an off-season filled with free-agent help, the Cincinatti Reds signed…

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Drew Storen, Scott Feldman and Arismendy Alcantara. No offense, but those are not top-level players. And, the Reds need help. In the worst way.

In 2016, the team ranked in the top 15 in two MLB statistical areas: stolen bases (2nd, 139), and left on-base (2nd, 1014). All other categories were 16th or lower, many in the mid-20’s. Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Adam Duvall will lead the charge offensively, hoping for contributions from the rest of the team. They were shut out 10 times last season, and lost 11 games in a row at one point.

Pitching was the Achilles heel of the Reds in 2016. The team finished with an ERA of 4.91, second-worst in MLB. They also only completed 28 saves. Manager Bryan Price may turn to Raisel Iglesias to close out games. The once-starter now-reliever was a bright spot on the staff.

What the experts say:

Bleacher Report: 67-95, fourth place

ESPN: 73-89, fifth place

Fangraphs: 69-93, fifth place

SB Nation: fifth Place

Sports Illustrated (March 27 issue): fifth place

Sporting News (2017 Baseball Preview issue): fifth place

USA Today: 66-96, fifth place

Third Place: Pittsburgh Pirates

After three years of playoff appearances, the Pittsburgh Pirates fell short of October baseball in 2016. A drop of 20 wins from one season to the next will do that. However, in the first half of the season, the Pirates played above .500 baseball. And, they were at .500 against the rest of the division.

FanSided

Well, except the Chicago Cubs.

Andrew McCutchen is an enigma. Once the MVP center fielder of the team, he is now forced to right field. He is not happy about it. After a poor showing in 2016, can he rebound to his normal production? If he does (and that is a hopeful if from me), the offense can be solid. Josh Harrison is more than capable leading off, and Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are growing into All-Stars.

But, is there enough pitching? Gerrit Cole cannot do it alone. There is not a lot behind him, but Jameson Taillon is a young star-in-the-making. The bullpen is lacking. Tony Watson, named closer after Mark Melancon was traded, filled in well on the back end of the staff. Between the starter and the closer, though, there are question marks.

What the experts say:

Bleacher Report: 82-80, third place

ESPN: 83-79, third place

Fangraphs: 82-80, third place

SB Nation: second place

Sports Illustrated: third place

Sporting News: third place

USA Today: 81-81, third place

Second Place: St. Louis Cardinals

Last year, they finished second in the division, 17 1/2 games behind their rival. They missed the playoffs the year after their rival eliminated them in the NLDS. And, their rival won the World Series for the first time in 108 years. That bitter pill could be a hard one to swallow, but it can also motivate the long-time NL Central leader.

The offense took a step forward in signing Dexter Fowler to lead off. A high on-base man and run machine for the Chicago Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals hope they catch lightning in a bottle. Plus, Cub-killer Yadier Molina is still playing. However, the team that hit 225 home runs in 2016 cannot rely on the long-ball again. Losing Matt Holliday will be a massive blow to the team, more than I think they realize.

What must improve for the Cardinals in 2017 is their starting pitching. Carlos Martinez and finished with an ERA just above 3.00. No one else was below 4.50. Newcomer Mike Leake was a bust. If he returns to his 2013 form, the boost to the rotation would be amazing. With Alex Reyes out for the season, they need help. The addition of Brett Cecil and the resurgence of Kevin Siegrist will help a bullpen that allowed eight walk-offs.

What the experts say:

Bleacher Report: 90-72, second place

ESPN: 85-77, second place

Fangraphs: 84-78, second place

SB Nation: fourth place

Sports Illustrated: second place

Sporting News: second place

USA Today: 88-74, second place

First Place: Chicago Cubs

You may find this odd coming from a site dedicated to fans of the Chicago Cubs, but it is honest at this moment. The Cubs are the odds-on favorite to win the NL Central in 2017.

Last year was about pitching and defense. Best ERA. Lowest opponent’s batting average. Most runs saved. It all worked together. Add some timely hitting, and you get a 103-win season.

It will be near impossible to return to that level in 2017. The top four starters in the rotation are proven players, but they pitched above career averages in many cases. And, while adding Wade Davis and Koji Uehara improve the bullpen, closing the game may be an issue. Davis will be the closer day one, but has been inconsistent this Spring.

The offense will be key. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and Addison Russell showed why they are the best infield in baseball. Losing David Ross means Willson Contreras plays on a near-daily basis. Another youngster, Albert Almora Jr., is playing amazing ball this Spring and is looking to be the next standout player on the team.

But the biggest addition for the team this year comes from the disabled list. Kyle Schwarber. The potential for 40 homers, 100 RBI and 75 runs scored is within the magic wand he calls a bat. The Cubs should put up big numbers this year.

What the experts say:

Bleacher Report: 101-61, first place

ESPN: 98-64, first place

Fangraphs: 94-64, first place

SB Nation: first place

Sports Illustrated: first place

Sporting News: first place

USA Today: 99-63, first place