Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks must follow the formula in 2017

Last season, Kyle Hendricks emerged as an ace on the Chicago Cubs’ staff. Heading into 2017, the Cubs will need the same performance. What can we expect?

Headlines related to the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation usually center on Jake Arrieta or Jon Lester. That makes sense, given the two have combined for four World Series titles and nearly half-a-dozen Cy Young-caliber campaigns.

In the last two years, however, another arm has emerged as a quality piece in the Chicago pitching staff. Kyle Hendricks broke onto the scene with the Cubs in 2014 and, since, has not posted an ERA north of 4.00.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

Last season was the pinnacle to-date for Hendricks and his big-league career. He finished third in National League Cy Young voting, thanks largely in-part to an MLB-best 2.13 earned run average in his 30 starts.

Arrieta is heading into a contract year, as is veteran John Lackey. This means, past 2017, it’s up to Hendricks and Lester to anchor the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation.

Can Kyle Hendricks continue his recent dominance? Is it feasible to count on a 2.00-something ERA and 30 starts from the 27-year-old right-hander moving forward?

For the team to make another deep postseason run, this is a must-have. As the youngest member of the Cubs’ starting rotation, Hendricks will be key not just this year but in the seasons to come, as well.

Steady success annually for Hendricks

He hasn’t been a Cy Young contender for his entire career, but Kyle Hendricks has quietly earned a good reputation in Chicago.

With a career 2.92 ERA and 1.070 WHIP over three campaigns, the success that came to a head in 2016 is no fluke. Opposing hitters have been unable to muster a .300 OBP against Hendricks, batting just .228.

FanSided

As he’s developed into a mature big-league arm, Hendricks has learned to change speeds and locations to keep hitters off-balance.

Per Fangraphs, the average velocity on his four-seam fastball last season failed to crack 90 mph; yet hitters batted just .167 against that pitch.

Hendricks relies heavily upon his sinker, throwing it some 45.5 percent of the time in 2016. When he locates this pitch well, he’s virtually unhittable.

Controlling the cutter

Throwing it as much as he does has resulted in more contact from opposing hitters. Opponents carry a career .277 clip against that pitch from Hendricks, as opposed to a .148 mark on his strikeout pitch, the change-up.

Perhaps the most notable change for Hendricks last season was his ability to miss more bats with the cutter. Since being called up to the Chicago Cubs in 2014, he’s struggled to execute with that pitch.

In ’14, opponents batted .278 against Hendricks’ cutters; the next season, a similar mark at .273. Last year, however, when he seemed to really turn the corner on the mound, the Dartmouth alum limited hitters to a .189 clip.

There haven’t been many drastic alterations to what Kyle Hendricks does on the mound. It’s simply come down to better execution. Given he does not rely on one particular pitch for outs, it’s feasible to think he’ll continue to rank as one of the team’s best arms.

Executing pitch location will make or break Hendricks’ season

There are few pitchers in the game better than Kyle Hendricks when it comes to putting a ball exactly where he wants it.

Chicago Cubs

This attribute has led to more than a handful of Chicago Cubs’ fans comparing Hendricks to Hall of Fame Greg Maddux, which seems more than tad premature. That being said, both rely heavily upon pitch execution for success.

Such a comment probably seems a given, but pitchers like Aroldis Chapman can miss badly with location and get away with it because of nothing other than velocity.

When pitchers lack velocity (keep in mind, Hendricks’ fastball averaged just 89 MPH last season), they live and die with pitch location. Pitches up in the zone tend to be problematic, while anything below the knees seems to induce weak contact, at best.

One of the best ways to break down how effective a pitcher is in a certain area of the zone is studying heat maps. The first one that seems especially relevant to Hendricks is contact percentage.

Studying the numbers

Opponents hit Hendricks hard when he left pitches middle-in, especially to right-handers in 2016. Their contact percentage sat north of 85 percent.

When he located his pitches in the bottom-third of the strike zone and even below the zone, hitters’ contact percentage plummeted. It ranged from 70 percent, which was by far the best in the zone, all the way down to 30 percent when Hendricks worked the low, inside corner on both left and right-handed hitters.

When that chart is overlaid with a heat map centered around opponents’ average, an almost identical picture emerges: leaving pitches middle-in is the worst-case scenario for Kyle Hendricks.

Below the knees, opponents’ average ranged from .000 to .047; showcasing just how dominant the right-hander can be when he gets batters chasing out of the zone on his off-speed stuff.

Projections spell trouble for Hendricks

Last season was the best year we’ll ever see from Kyle Hendricks.

At least, that’s what Baseball Prospectus’ projections for the next few years tell us. Projections are hardly surefire figures, but, regardless, they always garner a great deal of attention this time of year.

The Chicago Cubs’ defense last year was one of the best units in baseball history, by multiple statistical measures. There was perhaps no one who benefited more from this defense than Hendricks, who limited opponents to a .250 BABIP in 190 innings pitched.

Every step of the way, Hendricks has seemingly outperformed expectations. That came to a clear head last season when he was a serious contender for the Cy Young Award in the NL. Next year, however, is projected to be more mild – still solid – but a far cry from what we saw in 2016.

His innings pitched will drop some 30 frames and his home runs and walks allowed will both increase, despite pitching fewer innings. His DRA (deserved run average, which takes into account all factors for a pitcher) will jump from 3.34 to 4.08 and his ERA will push 4.00 for just the second time in his career.

Next: Giving three years to Arrieta a win-win for both sides

How can Kyle Hendricks beat the odds and remain a top-tier starting pitcher?

He has to hone in on the finer details of his game; continuing to pound the zone with sinkers and change-ups below the knees. Control what he can control, namely walks and home runs. More than anything, Hendricks needs to maintain the mental aptitude he’s become nationally-known for during the postseason last year.

If he does these things, he has a very good chance at being an ace for the Chicago Cubs in 2017 and beyond.