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Jon Lester
It makes sense. Jon Lester as emerged as the Chicago Cubs Ace this year. Whether it has been at Wrigley field or on the road, Lester has performed up to his contract.
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And, he is a candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. Overall, Lester is 17-4 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.016 WHIP, and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
But, take at look at his performance at Wrigley. In 13 starts, Lester is 8-2 with a 1.91 ERA. Opponents are batting .182 against him and he has only allowed 20 runs. His numbers are solid on the road as well, but he is arguably the Cubs best pitcher. Furthermore, Lester has extensive playoff experience.
Given that his last start provides more than adequate rest before October 7, Jon Lester will be the game one starter.
Next: But who gets the ball in game two?