Chicago Cubs: Predicting the starting rotation for the playoffs

The Chicago Cubs are in the 2016 Major League Baseball playoffs. With the goal of making and winning the World Series, establishing the starting rotation is important.

The best pitching rotation in the MLB belongs to the Chicago Cubs. Now that the team is officially in the playoffs, deciding on who pitches game one of the NL Divisional Series will be a huge task. While narrowing the field from five to four pitchers may be simple, the order may be a challenge. Here is what we do know:

• The Cubs have set the pitching match-ups for the rest of the season with the exception of the final game in Cincinnati. Of course, this could change.
• With the current six-man rotation is being used to provide rest of the staff, Mike Montgomery will move to the bullpen for the playoffs.
• As of right now, Jon Lester‘s last start is on September 27 with Jake Arrieta pitches on September 30. Game one of the NLDS will be on October 7.

With these in mind, here is your potential playoff rotation.

Next: Game 1 goes to....

Kyle Hendricks

Ok, Cubs fans. Calm down. We have to be reasonable here. I know your arguments, but have also watched games and read the stats. Kyle Hendricks has improved greatly over the last year, where he was 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA. Now, Hendricks should be the starter for game two. Here is why:

• He is arguably the best pitcher on the staff this year. For the season, he leads all of Major League Baseball in ERA, Base-out Runs Saved, and Base-out Wins Saved. In other words, players may get on base, but they do not score.
• In 14 games Wrigley, he is 9-1 with a 1.21 ERA, allowing only 15 runs
• Away from home, he is 6-6, 2.90 ERA, and has allowed 32 runs. This is also in 14 games.

Therefore, pitching Hendricks at home could be important to the overall series. The odds are in the Cubs favor for him to win at Wrigley.

Next: Really? Game Three?

Jake Arrieta

Yes, I honestly believe the Chicago Cubs’ chances of winning the NL Pennant is pitching Jake Arrieta third. Overall, his performance is solid, but not dominant like in 2015. Arrieta is still a great pitcher, but pitching on the road may be best this post-season.

In his 14 games at Wrigley, Arrieta is 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA allowing 29 runs. Compare that to his stats on the road: 11-2, 3.11 ERA, 32 runs. “Wait a second? His home stats are actually better!” I hear your argument now. The truth of the matter is that the Cubs win on the road when Arrieta pitches.

Look at it this way: When Arrieta does not pitch at Wrigley, the team is 45-17. On the road, they are 31-30. He is needed on the road!

Why not put him in a place where you know he can succeed and help the team? He has already proven to be a road-warrior. To win the NLCS, the Cubs will need to win on the road. Arrieta gives them the best chance.

Next: And the game four starter is......

John Lackey

This is probably the hardest choice the team has to make. John Lackey has performed better than the team hoped for when they signed him. His numbers for the season hold up to those of this overall career. The 37-year-old is 9-8 on the season, but opponents are batting .212 against him. Plus, his last few starts have been competitive. But, that is not the reason why he is needed in game four.

Lackey has an 8-5 record in the playoffs in his career, including two World Series championships. Oh, and he was the winning pitcher in the series-clinching games for both World Series. Additionally, in his 23 post season appearances, Lackey came out of the bullpen three times. This helps solidify him as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.

Plus, Lackey is a bulldog as a competitor. Unless he is getting shelled, I want him on the mound.

Next: Odd man out?

Jason Hammel

The magic of the potato chips has worn off. The year Jason Hammel has been fantastic. However, the last five starts for the right-handed pitcher may have put him in the bullpen for the postseason. Hammel is 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA during the last four weeks. That one win was at Wrigley.

We know Hammel can do. We all want for him to perform well. And, the Chicago Cubs will need him in the postseason. It is possible that Manager Joe Maddon would start Hammel at Wrigley in game five of the World Series given the 2-3-2 format. And, Hammel 9-1 at his home ballpark.

Next: What do you think?

There you have it. My thoughts on the rotation for the playoffs. Things may change, but given the match-ups for the rest of the season and how the team has performed with each pitcher, the case is solid. If the Chicago Cubs want to celebrate their first World Series Championship in 108 years, they must select the best rotation given how pitchers have performed in 2016.

Next: Making the confines friendly again

What are your thoughts? What will it take to end the season flying the “W”? Comment and join the discussion!