Chicago Cubs: Is it possible for the Cubs to reach 100 wins?

The final two months are upon us. When all is done, will the Chicago Cubs have the best record?

The talk at the beginning of the season revolving around the Chicago Cubs was this team could be one for the ages. They were compared to the 1927 New York Yankees. How many runs would they score? How many wins would they obtain?

The 162-game season is rough and demanding on all teams. At current, the Chicago Cubs sit atop the MLB with a record of 69-41, twenty-eight games above .500. The highest they have been all season. Which means the next goal, according to manager Joe Maddon, is 30 games up. Then 35. And 40.

That would be 101 wins on the season. In order to achieve that goal, the Cubs will need to go 32-20 the rest of the way. Considering their winning percentage is .627, that seems possible. And that one win would be one more than the St. Louis Cardinals reached last year.

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And it is the Cardinals that can keep the Chicago Cubs from achieving that goal this season. Of the 52 games left on the schedule, ten are against the Red Birds. Seven of these games are at Wrigley Field; however, the Cardinals swept that Cubs at Wrigley during the June Swoon.

Swept.

Right now, the Cubs hold a rather insurmountable 11 game lead over their rival in the NL Central. Of course, I am not saying they will hold onto this lead, but it means the Cardinals must go 32-20 and with the Cubs playing .500 baseball the rest of the way to lose the division. Not impossible, but extremely difficult. According to Baseball Prospectus, that chance is only 0.4%.

Baseball Prospectus also predicts that Chicago Cubs to win 100.2 games this season, a far cry from the 116 discussed at the season’s genesis. Sure, the Valley of the Shadow of June and all the follies that befell the team is behind them, but the climb to the summit will be strenuous. Here is why:

Of the remaining 52 games:

• 25 are against teams with records below .500: Angels (2), Brewers (11), Rockies (3), Padres (3), and Reds (6).
• 27 are against teams either leading their division or withing 2.5 games of the Wild Card: Cardinals (10), Dodgers (3), Giants (4), Pirates (7), Astros (3)
• 27 are at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs (37-17) have the second-best home record in the MLB, behind the Baltimore Orioles (39-17).

What remains possible for the Chicago Cubs? A hundred wins? One hundred and six? More? If the percentages for the season hold true, a win total of 102 is realistic. That would mean winning more 33 games. And, honestly, that would be fantastic. Think about it: winning five more games than the season prior, winning the division, and having home field in the NLCS (if they make it there). It would also be a 36 game improvement in three seasons and the fourth most win in Chicago Cubs’ history.

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With 106 wins, the Cubs would match the highest total of their rival Red Birds. But, with so many games against playoff contenders and the likelihood that Maddon will rest the likes of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, and Dexter Fowler would make it difficult to win 37 games.

Not impossible, but unlikely.

What if they get the chance to win 116? That would be amazing, but it would take a lot of luck. Furthermore, I do not see Maddon allowing the team to push so hard to the finish line and risk injury or being overworked before October.

This year, it is about the World Series.