Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks could win 15 games this season

After a strong rookie campaign, Chicago Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks scuffled a bit in his second year. After making a few changes, don’t be surprised to see the cerebral hurler win 15 or more in 2016.

The Chicago Cubs never gave up on Kyle Hendricks. He may have indeed needed to “claim” his spot in the rotation this season but the team wasn’t giving up on him. In fact, Hendricks late-season success has carried over into the spring this year and left no question of his place in the rotation. On the contrary–it may have given him the No. 4 spot if not reserved for the veteran Jason Hammel.

Last season Hendricks referenced a “change” that seemed to have him going in the right direction again. It wasn’t necessarily cryptic, but very vague. From April to September his pitch selection was very similar. So what was the difference? Turns out it’s his faith in his changeups. Wait, he has two?

That is indeed the case as Hendricks looked to get back to his rookie form and use his location to get strikeouts instead of trying to miss bats. I think we all understand that Hendricks–“the Professor”–needs to be a step ahead of the hitter. By having the two changeups as well as getting more called strikes, that step looks to be getting a little bigger.

In his 24 2/3 innings this spring he posted the lowest ERA of qualifying pitchers with a 2.92. His strikeout to walk ratio was a 5.8, very similar to his mark last year in September when he struck out 31 while walking just six. He’s not what you think of when you’re talking about dominating pitchers, but neither was Maddux.

So can Hendricks legitimately win 15 games? I think so–if his late season adjustments and his spring numbers are any indication.

He’s likely to square off against the No. 4 or 5 guy in a team’s rotation–occasionally he’ll have to face an ace here and there–but that’s roughly how it should work out. With Hendricks throwing the ball like he is now, I’d take him and the Cubs offense over 90% of their opponents.

Last April was not kind to him as he started the year 0-1 with a 5.15 ERA in his first seven starts. It took till his 21st start before he won his fifth game of the season. He mixed in a few gems, including a five-hit complete game shutout against the Padres on May 21. But it was clear–at least then–that he wasn’t the same pitcher from the year before.

But as Chris Bosio always seems to do, he found something that Hendricks maybe didn’t realize and went to work. The results spoke for themselves as he finished the regular season throwing 12 scoreless innings. His playoff performances weren’t terrible, but it was clear that Joe Maddon had lost faith in him and Hammel late in the year.

Next: The anatomy of a drought

Can Hendricks win 15 games? Of course. This is a team that some say is a 100 win team this year–someone is going to get them. But I think he can do it on the merit of his pitching and not relying on the offense to post crooked numbers for him. He could also finish a .500 pitcher–but the Giants paid Jeff Samardzija $90 million to be one–so I’d say that’s a win for the Cubs.