Chicago Cubs: Taking a look at the Cubs’ top starting rotations in franchise history

Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

With the Chicago Cubs signing of John Lackey, the team has a formidable starting rotation for 2016.

On many teams, Lackey would be a top of rotation guy, but on this Cubs team, he’ll fall behind both Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester and in front of surprising youngster Kyle Hendricks and veteran Jason Hammel. (that is if the Cubs stand pat on pitching this off-season).

That is if the Cubs stand pat on pitching this off-season.

On paper, this is one of the best rotations the Cubs will have fielded in quite a long time. We’re hoping it will be one of the best rotations they ever fielded–and it certainly will be remembered as such if the team brings home a championship.

So who else would this rotation rank with if they were live into their potential in 2016? Let’s get the expectations set by looking at the top five rotations in Cubs history–and then see where this staff projects.

Next: Fergie, Hoot, and Milt make the grade

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#5: 1972

The 1972 Cubs were a good all-around team. The team had many names familiar to fans: Ron Santo, Billy Williams, Randy Hundley, Leo Durocher… They finished second in the old National League East behind Pittsburgh, which was no small feat in those days.

Offensively, Williams put up MVP-caliber numbers, hitting .333 with 37 home runs. But the pitching was a huge part of the team’s success, as the likes of Ferguson Jenkins, Burt Hooton, Milt Pappas, Bill Hands and Rick Reuschel turned in stellar seasons.

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Combined, the starters turned in a sub 3.00 ERA. They turned in 53 complete games (granted complete games were more common in that era, but it is still an impressive number). Each starter contributed double-digit wins.

They turned in 53 complete games (granted complete games were more common in that era, but it is still an impressive number). Each starter contributed double-digit wins.

Fergie Jenkins was the staff ace. He won 20 games for the Cubs in 1972. Amongst the starters, he actually had the highest ERA at 3.20. But Jenkins led the pitching staff in Wins Above Replacement, with 5.7.

Teammate Milt Pappas led the team in ERA with a 2.77 mark. Though it was near the end of his career, the ’72 season was one of Pappas’ finest. He walked just over one batter per nine innings, posted a 4.3 WAR and pitched the only no-hitter the Cubs would see for over 30 years.

Overall, it was the staff’s WAR that set them up as one of the Cubs all-time best. Due to changes in rules and gameplay, it becomes difficult to compare stats like ERA across the decades.

But WAR compares the success of a particular player against his contemporaries, and here we see the ’72 Cubs rising well above the rest, as Jenkins (5.7), Hooten (5.1), Pappas (4.3), Hands (3.7) and Reuschel (2.9) posted very impressive numbers.

Next: Beginnings of a dynasty

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#4: 1906

It’s tough to rate a starting pitching staff from the early 1900’s since in those days pretty much the entire pitching staff consisted of starters. The practice at the time was to run a starter out to the mound until he really could not pitch anymore.

So relief appearances were a rare occurrence and complete games were the norm.

From our viewpoint, the numbers from 1906 staff are incredible. Of the four pitchers who pitched more than 200 innings, three of them had an ERA under 2.00. Two of those pitchers averaged less than 1.0 WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched).

They boasted two 20-game winners. Staff ace, Mordecai Brown, gave up 32 earned runs all year. Oh, and the team won a record 116 games (though they lost to the White Sox in the World Series).

Now we have to place those pitching numbers in the context of the early 1900’s (the 116 wins is impressive no matter what era). In 1906, There were eight 20-game winners. There were six guys who pitched over 200 innings and had sub-2.00 ERAs.

But here is where the Cubs separate: three of those sub-2.00 pitchers were Cubs. In fact, the top three ERAs belonged to Cubs (Brown, Jack Pfiester and Ed Reulbach). Not surprisingly, the Cubs top pitchers had impressive WAR (Brown: 7.1, Pfiester: 4.7, Reulbach: 4.6, Carl Lundgren: 2.5).

Next: Kid K, Big Z and the gang

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#2: 1918

In 1918, the Cubs were once again ending a playoff drought, and the pitching staff led the way for the Cubs first World Series appearance in a whole seven whopping years. Sigh.

Hippo Vaughn, Lefty Tyler, Claude Hendrix and Phil Douglas all posted an ERA under 3.00. Three of those four-posted an ERA under 2.50 (Hendrix being the exception). As a team, the Cubs boasted the lowest ERA, the highest strikeout rate per nine innings, the fewest hits per nine innings and the fewest home runs allowed.

Vaughn was the dominant presence as he led the league in several categories: wins, ERA, WHIP, hits per nine innings, strikeouts and shutouts. Had there been a Cy Young Award in those days, it would have gone to Vaughn.

Lefty Tyler was no slouch either though. He posted an impressive 6.9 WAR, which was second in majors only to teammate Vaughn, who had a 7.8 WAR. Their rotation mates contributed solid WARs, too, as Hendrix posted a 2.1 and Douglas posted a 1.9.

Next: The great amongst the best

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#1: 1969

Unfortunately, what most fans will remember about 1969 is the nine-game lead the Cubs lost to the Mets in September. But what got that team their nine-game lead to begin with was a killer starting rotation consisting of Ferguson Jenkins, Bill Hands, Ken Holtzman and Dick Selma.

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While staff ace Jenkins was typically Jenkins, posting an excellent ERA (3.21) and winning 21 games. Teammate Bill Hands had a career year, posting his lowest ERA as a starter (2.49), winning 20 games, and allowing just 1.1 WHIP. Had it not been for the likes of Hall of Famers

Had it not been for the likes of Hall of Famers Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver (who had a ridiculously good year), the Cubs may have brought home some personal awards. Even still, ’69 was the last season the Cubs posted two 20-game winners.

As previously mentioned, there were a lot of good pitchers around in 1969. Reading the list of league leaders is like reading the registry at the Hall of Fame, as it includes the aforementioned Gibson and Seaver, as well as Juan Marichal, Steve Carlton,  Phil Niekro and Gaylord Perry.

It was a year of high-level competition in the pitching ranks, which makes the Cubs pitchers’ numbers for WAR pretty remarkable. Jenkins had a mark of 7.2.

Hands was second only to the great Gibson and the notable Larry Dierker with a WAR of 8.4. Holtzman and Selma also put up very respectable marks at 4.5 and 2.7, respectively.

This was a good, good staff surrounded by some amazing starting rotations (the Cardinals, Giants and Mets all featured rotations with multiple future Hall of Famers).

That the Cubs held their own against those teams is pretty remarkable. That they were successful against those other teams shows this was a great staff.

Next: And for 2016?

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2016?

Could the 2016 Cubs starting rotation feature multiple Hall of Famers? Lackey may not make it, but Arrieta and Lester could be on their way. And good things are predicted for 2016.

According to FanGraphs, Arrieta should regress a bit in 2016 but still post some solid numbers. His steamer projection has him winning 15 games with a 2.93 ERA and a WAR of 4.7.

On the flip side, we should see more from Jon Lester. Projections have him at 14 wins, a 3.15 ERA, and a 4.1 WAR.

The remainder of the Cubs staff predicts out at some very respectable numbers. Lackey, Hendricks and Hammel all expect sub-4.00 ERAs and WARs over 2.

While these are good numbers, they don’t have the eye-poppers of some of the previously mentioned rotations. But what do you think? Could the 2016 Cubs boast one of the Cubs best-ever rotations?