Chicago Cubs: Bold predictions for the upcoming offseason

Jake Arrieta won’t sign a long-term extension

There is one simple reason for this – Scott Boras.

The Cubs’ ace is represented by Boras, notorious for taking a player to free agency in order to extract the largest possible sum from potential suitors. With that in mind, don’t expect Arrieta to sign a long-term extension this offseason like many are predicting.

The Cubs still have control over Arrieta for two more seasons with free agency bidding to begin after the 2017 season. There is a possibility Boras tries to extract a two-year deal from the Cubs in case of regression next season but the likely case is a one-year arbitration deal at around $12 million this season and another arbitration hearing after next season when extension talks will start in earnest.

Next: Cubs left looking for answers after Fowler leaves

Dexter Fowler won’t return to the Cubs

Despite a solid season from Dexter Fowler in center field in 2015, there are a number of factors that lead to the conclusion that Fowler won’t be wearing Cubbie blue when camps open in February.

First of all, he will be a highly sought-after commodity due to the combination of a great season, being a strong leadoff hitter and the lack of quality options in center field on the market.

Second, and more importantly, the Cubs will need a defensive upgrade in center field next season. If the Cubs are to move forward with young studs Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler in the corner outfield positions in order to put the best offensive team possible on the field, Fowler will be insufficient in roaming center field.

While Fowler is above average at the plate, he is a defensive liability. Combine his outfield skills with the far below average fielding of both Schwarber and Soler and the Cubs would likely have the worst defensive outfield in baseball.

With that in mind, expect the Cubs to turn to the trade market for a solution just like they did in acquiring Fowler before last season. The free agent market options for center field are slim but Rajai Davis is a name to keep an eye on if the Cubs can’t find another option. Davis is still speedy at age 35 and has excellent range in center.

He would be relatively inexpensive and fill a need while waiting for the next Cubs young gun, Albert Almora, who has been projected to be a future Gold Glove-caliber center fielder.

Next: Theo's big move isn't big at all

Oct 9, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein in attendance before game one of the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Price will be wrong, and Theo won’t land an ace

The talk at the trade deadline was all about David Price. His link to manager Joe Maddon, his tweets back and forth with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, the need for another ace in Chicago all led to the speculation he would someday be a Cub.

Now that Price and his Jays are eliminated, the question is where will he land?

Any Chicago Cubs fan would love to see Price on the North Side next season and many even feel not signing Price would mean the offseason would be a failure. In addition to the potential AL Cy Young award winner for last season, the NL Cy Young co-favorite Zack Greinke (in a coin flip with the Cubs’ Arrieta) will also be a free agent – as will Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir.

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The Cubs know they need a starting pitcher or two in order to take the next step but keep in mind, they already have two aces in their hand in Arrieta and Jon Lester. Add to that the deep crop of second tier starters including Hiroshi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo, the emerging Marco Estrada, ex-Cub Jeff Samardzija, to name a few.

While the biggest names while have massive price tags attached, the next tier won’t be as prohibitive and signing two of those makes much more sense than signing one super ace. While a Price-Arrieta-Lester top 3 looks incredible, a full rotation of Arrieta-Lester-Estrada-Fister would give the Cubs a ton of options going forward. The Cubs also love reclamation projects (see Cahill, Richard, Turner, etc) so don’t discount the thought of going after Tim Lincecum, Brett Anderson or Ian Kennedy.

There are just way too many options as far as pitching goes to bet the farm on Price taking the Cubs to the promised land.

Javier Baez, not Starlin Castro, will get traded

For the past year, the Starlin Castro trade talks have been constantly on the hot stove back burner.

Last season, Jed Hoyer even went as far as to say the Cubs and Mets would someday make a deal involving a Cubs shortstop and a Mets starting pitcher. Given the glut of Cubs that can play middle infield including Castro, Baez, defensive wizard Addison Russell and the rapidly-rising 18-year-old Gleyber Torres in the system, the Cubs have depth to deal.

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The talk still centers around Castro due to his history as a three-time All-Star before regressing this past season and the Cubs’ plan to build with youth from within. However Castro is just 25 years old and showed flashes of his past success after a move to second base in the second-half.

When comparing trade value, in my opinion, Baez would fetch the higher return but is still relatively raw. He has a great power bat but spent most of last season in the minor leagues after struggling in spring training and his limited time in the big leagues.

Baez was eventually relied on in the NLCS after Russell went down with an injury that kept him off the roster but went just 1-for-10 against the Mets (although that’s a trend that was consistent up and down Chicago’s lineup).

With Castro, the Cubs have a known commodity who will be only three years older than Baez on Opening Day. If the Cubs are serious about 2016 being the start of the glory years, Castro makes more sense at second base with Baez being moved to fill one of the other holes on the roster, be it starting pitching, center field or bullpen help. Going back to the Fowler situation, a Baez swap for a player like Brett Gardner makes a lot of sense.

Next: Time to shore up the back-end

Big money headed toward the late innings

The Cubs look fairly set around the diamond going into 2016.

As previously mentioned, center field may be a focus if Fowler doesn’t return and the need for a starting pitcher was made clear after the NLCS but the biggest spend will be on the bullpen.

To start, the all-important eighth and ninth-inning options are both restricted free agents this year. Expect closer Hector Rondon to jump from the $544,000 he made in 2015 to around the $4M mark for 2016.

Set-up man Pedro Strop should also get a raise from his $2.5M salary to closer to $3.5M. Add to them Justin Grimm, who will jump from $531,000 to $2,000,000. Starter-turned-reliever Travis Wood made $5.6M last season and will go into arbitration looking for a similar number for 2016.

Other relievers Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard and Fernando Rodney are all free agents and will need to be replaced or re-signed. Looking at the success of the Royals the past two seasons as a model and given Joe Maddon’s love for a bullpen game when needed, expect the Cubs to spend on the bullpen in order to protect leads and shorten games.

With many options on the market, the Cubs won’t hesitate to shore up the pen and spend when necessary in order to do so.

Next: One fan calls for an unlikely trade partner