Sep 26, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs players celebrate after clinching wild card playoff berth at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In just over 24 hours, the Chicago Cubs will face-off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card game at PNC Park – yet more questions than answers remain in regards to who will take the field for Joe Maddon’s club.
The winner of the one-game playoff will head to St. Louis to battle the experienced Cardinals team – but, for the time being, both teams will focus on the task at-hand.
The Cubs have had a very flexible starting eight all season with Maddon filling out the lineup card in a number of different ways. Thanks to the flexibility of having guys able to play multiple positions and hitters feeling comfortable in a variety of slots in the batting order, the Cubs have had the rare luxury of experiencing a high level of success.
Sep 26, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon (70) talks with players before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Do you go for defense or offense?
With that in mind, Maddon must put on his thinking cap, or go with the gut feeling he is famous for, and trot out a lineup on Wednesday night designed to topple the team with the second-best record in baseball and the best record in the game since May 9.
Per usual, it will come down to what Maddon wants to focus on most. The question moving forward is whether that focus is on the ability to squeeze runs across against one of the best the NL has to offer or putting a strong defensive unit behind the best second-half pitcher in baseball history in Jake Arrieta?
It is sure to be a low-scoring affair, with oddsmakers in agreement having set the over/under at just 5.5 runs. Only 12 times in the past 18 years has the run total been set that low for a Major League Baseball game, really speaking to the quality of pitching taking the hill on Wednesday night.
With that in mind comes the classic dilemma: do you put out your best bats in hopes of scoring the extra run or put out your best defensive alignment possible to take away any opportunities for the opponent to scratch one across? Right now, only one man’s opinion matters but speculation rages on.
Sep 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) pitches to Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Montero (R) during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Battling the best they have to offer
First off, when taking a look at Cole, an assortment of gawdy numbers stand out. He has only allowed eleven home runs this season, however eight of those have come in his home starts.
Righties are having slightly more success against him hitting .251 versus just .227 for lefties. While it appears that at first glance, he may be fatiguing having reached a career-high in innings pitched with 208, topping his old mark of 138 frames by a staggering 70 innings, it doesn’t seem to be true.
While he is 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA in the second half this season, compared to a mark of 13-3 and a 2.30 ERA in the first half, the other numbers don’t suggest regression. His opponent batting average (.239 vs .240) is nearly identical and his WHIP and K:BB rates are actually better in the second half.
Runs will indeed be at a premium for both teams, and the managers will be under-the-gun with bullpen usage and bench options against two of the game’s best hurlers.
Sep 25, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo hits a single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
The shoo-ins for the surging Cubs
Miguel Montero, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler
The only question on this list is where Russell and Bryant will play. These five all sit in the top six among hitters on the team in WAR and have been instrumental to the success of the season.
Rizzo has raked against Cole this year, batting well-over .300 in matchups against the Pirates’ ace, and with the first 30-homer, 100-RBI season of his young career under his belt, he’ll no-doubt be the offensive leader for the team.
As a whole, their numbers are all solid against Cole as well, combining for a .346 average against the right-hander. No question these five are in, leaving just three spots to fill in Maddon’s lineup card Wednesday night.
Oct 2, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Starlin Castro (13) runs to second base after hitting a double in the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The likely: a hot bat and a powerful rookie
Starlin Castro, Kyle Schwarber
There may not have been a more valuable Cubs player not named Jake Arrieta down the stretch than Castro. Despite the trade rumors, a public benching, prospects pushing him and the outcry from fans to “get what you can for him,” Castro turned a corner and killed it down the stretch, hitting .369 with 5 home runs and 21 RBI in September/October.
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With Russell a defensive gem at shortstop, Maddon will be able to limit Castro’s defensive liability by playing him at second base while keeping his bat in the lineup. He also has had success against Cole, going 6-for-17 in his career against the Pirates ace.
Schwarber has been able to adequately adapt to a role in the outfield in a limited amount of time after growing up behind the plate. While still not strong in left field, as evidenced by his -2.2 WAR playing the position, his bat more than offsets his defensive setback.
Given the nature of the Pirates lineup and a tendency to hit to left, Schwarber may find himself in right field on Wednesday, a position he first played in the series against the Brewers this weekend. The Cubs need Schwarber’s big bat in the lineup for added protection for Bryant and Rizzo, giving the Cubs the best chance to score multiple runs Wednesday night.
Sep 4, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) hits a grand slam scoring Addison Russell, Austin Jackson and Chris Coghlan in the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
A seasoned veteran, likely destined for the bench
Chris Coghlan
Last week Coghlan lashed out, albeit relatively reserved in nature, regarding his reduced playing time. A guy that had spent much of the season hitting out of the three-hole in the batting order had become a platoon player at best, never playing versus lefties and now being sat more often against righties.
He blamed his dip in production directly on his lack of playing time stating he deserved to be in the lineup Wednesday and it’s hard to argue against him. While his batting average is just .245 this season, his line-drive rate was nearly identical to Anthony Rizzo’s (28 vs 29 percent).
This, combined with his notable plate discipline, gave him a respectable .359 OBP. In addition to a solid season at the plate, Coghlan stood out defensively with a 4.8 defensive WAR in left and an offensive WAR of 10.8. Those season long numbers shouldn’t be ignored.
The biggest issue may be his numbers against Cole, going 0-for-8 this season and just 2-for-13 in his career against him. Even with that in mind, Coghlan looks in theory to be the best option for Wednesday.
Oct 2, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Chris Denorfia (15) traps ball hit by Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Domingo Santana (16) (not pictured) for a base hit in the ninth inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The team’s wild cards for the postseason
Tommy La Stella, Chris Denorfia
Many thought, and still think, the lineup Maddon trotted out on Friday against the Brewers with Arrieta on the mound would be what we would see Wednesday. In this version of the Maddon mixer, La Stella manned third base while Bryant and Schwarber both took corner outfield positions.
If this was indeed a sneak preview, expect La Stella to hit out of the nine-hole. This is a bit concerning as La Stella has very limited experience at the hot corner having played just 52 innings there.
In addition, he sports just an .857 fielding percentage at the position, albeit it in a very small sample size. At the plate, Maddon would hide La Stella at the bottom to limit the number of at bats he sees. It seems with his ability to play a number of positions, he would be better suited for a defensive substitution late if needed rather than be placed in the starting lineup.
Denorfia, on the other hand, is a very interesting name to consider. Here you have a guy who hit .412 in September, hits .301 against righties, is hitting .322 out of the 7/8/9 spots and is 3-for-6 lifetime against Cole with two steals meaning he can pick him up early in his delivery.
By playing Denorfia, the Cubs would be able to keep Bryant at his natural third base position, likely making him feel more comfortable in his first playoff experience. With Denorfia, a solid defensive player in left and a hot bat in the lineup, he would fit perfectly in the seventh spot leaving Russell to hit ninth and be the table setter for the top of the order.
Regardless of how Maddon chooses to arrange his lineup card on Wednesday night, the Cubs will need to take advantage of every small opportunity they have and play strong behind Arrieta if the next time they return to Wrigley Field, it’s to play baseball and not clean out lockers.
Sep 8, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) celebrates with teammates after hitting a two-run home run against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Looking at all the possibilities
My hope:
Fowler CF – Schwarber RF – Bryant 3B – Rizzo 1B – Castro 2B – Montero C – Denorfia LF – Arrieta P – Russell SS
My logic:
Fowler CF – Schwarber RF – Bryant 3B – Rizzo 1B – Castro 2B – Coghlan LF – Montero C – Arrieta P – Russell SS
My Maddon prediction:
Fowler CF – Schwarber RF – Bryant LF – Rizzo 1B – Castro 2B – Montero C – Russell SS – Arrieta P – La Stella 3B
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