Chicago Cubs: Who would be the No. 3 starter in the playoffs?
Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
The Cubs are looking to decide who the No. 3 starter will be, so why shouldn’t we?
I’m not trying to get ahead of myself here. The Chicago Cubs still have a few games left and then we have the Wild Card playoff game to even get us to this point in the conversation. That being said, the discussions are being had behind the scenes for the Cubs, so we’ll engage in it a bit as well. It’s a lock that Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are the top two–no matter who the option is to pitch the Wild Card showdown. But after that, should the Cubs advance, who goes third?
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Theories have run rampant on this, but I think it really comes down to the three H’s. Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren. In July, I knew the answer to this without hesitation. Now it’s a much trickier question. As of late, all three have rebounded to make valid cases for the opportunity. Discussion has also been had that Joe Maddon may consider a “bullpen” start. While possible, we’re going to stick with these three as one will be the most likely answer.
So with a week till the Wild Card game, we take a mini peek ahead to who may be the Cubs No. 3 should they advance to the NL Divisional round.
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Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Hendricks – 7-7, 4.09 ERA, 174 IP, 47 BB/159 K’s
If you were to take a look at the record of Kyle Hendricks, you might not know he’s been a starter all season. With a 7-7 record, it looks like he has the record of a bullpen guy who factors into a lot of decision or a guy who came up late. But it’s 19 no decisions that have led to that record. The Cubs are 18-13 when he starts, but 19 times Hendricks hasn’t had a decision. So is that on Kyle or Maddon? The answer is somewhere in between.
Hendricks has struggled to keep his pitch count down, and that’s forced the hand of Maddon on more than one occasion. Strikeouts per nine are up from last year (8.3 from 5.2) as are walks per nine innings (1.7 to 2.2). You don’t have to be a math major to know that both of those lead to more pitches. The long ball has plagued him as well, which is a familiar story with all three of our potential No. 3 starters.
The Pirates have hit Hendricks pretty hard, tagging him for a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings against the Bucs. They’ve also connected for five home runs against him, most of any opponent faced. To be fair, he has started more games against them than any other opponent, but even if he’s riding a “hot hand”, the Pirates have seen him often and he hasn’t fooled them thus far.
PREDICTION: Kyle is likely to be slotted in as the No. 4, and it will be on a short leash as it’s been all year. Maddon won’t have the bullpen depth to do what he wants, but he still has guys like Clayton Richard and Travis Wood that could help in a short outing.
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Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Jason Hammel – 9-7, 3.86 ERA, 165 2/3 IP, 40 BB/167 K’s
Comparatively speaking, the numbers between Hammel and Hendricks are quite similar. Their season stories, however, have been very different. Hammel started off the season very well, and without a doubt was the Cubs clear No.3–if we were to be looking this far ahead at the time. But after leaving a start in July with a hamstring issue–a game I was at, and I live in Charlotte, NC–he’s not been the same since. He would tell you it hasn’t been an issue, but the results beg to differ.
Now, the Maddon “quick hook” has applied to pretty much everyone, and Hammel may have gotten it a few times prematurely. The two had a conversation following the first one and had moved passed it. When it happened again, there was no talk about it. Hammel didn’t like it. Joe knew he didn’t and that was that.
He hasn’t pitched into the seventh inning since Aug. 23, although he has won two of his last four starts. And in his last outing against Pittsburgh he was pulled after just 62 pitches after four innings. The Cubs simply had no answer for Francisco Liriano and Maddon made the move early to try and jumpstart the offense to no avail.
PREDICTION: I think Hammel may still get the nod at the No.3 unless something changes drastically in this last week. He really hasn’t been that bad, even when he’s been “bad”. Maddon simply hasn’t given him the chance to do so.
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Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Dan Haren – 10-9, 3.67 ERA, 181 1/3 IP, 37 BB/129 K’s (MIA/CHC)
Haren may be the wild card in the Wild Card. Since coming over to Chicago, he’s been anything but impressive. But then again the continuity at the No. 5 spot in the rotation was iffy at best and he as worth the low-risk acquisition. After scuffling along, allowing a lot of home runs, Haren suddenly seems to have found a fountain of youth.
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Seven shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sept. 7, then 7 1/3 against the Reds on Tuesday. He’s allowed just one home run in his last four outings and is working at a much quicker pace. Whether it was something suggested by Chris Bosio or a move on his own, it was apparent against the Reds. Haren got the ball from Miguel Montero, got the sign and made his pitch. He shook him off very few times if at ever. It led to a dominant outing–even if it was the last place Reds.
Haren does have postseason experience, although he hasn’t been there since 2006 with the Oakland A’s. He’s looked much improved in his past four starts and could be sliding his name up on the list for a start in game two of the NLDS. He’s a 10-year veteran and given the chance Maddon may decide to use that experience.
PREDICTION: With possibly one more start for Haren, he could be the unknown in this decision. Up until his last few outings, I wasn’t even sure he would be on the postseason roster. But he’s making as solid a case for the shot as any of the three.
Next: Maybe none of the above?
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
As fans, we’ve made a lot about the Cubs needing a solid No. 3 next year. But when you look at these three pitchers, the numbers aren’t horrendous. There are many teams that would be excited to have their third starter win 10 games or at least be in the position to do so. None of them are shutdown guys, but can occasionally toss a gem. Wouldn’t expect it in the playoffs, but you just never know.
As I mentioned earlier, there’s an outside chance that Maddon could turn to Richard or Wood in a spot start, possibly due to matchups. That hasn’t really been openly discussed, but it’s Joe Maddon so I don’t count out anything.
With a 25-man roster, it will be interesting to see what route Maddon decides to go should the Cubs move on to the NLDS. Making a spot start is risky. If that starter fails to go very deep, say four innings, you may end up burning several arms in a short series. And you can’t carry extra arms if you want to play the matchup game of the bench.
This decision will trickle down to many other decisions for the playoff roster. But again, just speculation. The Cubs still have to take care of business this last week and then the Wild Card game. Nothing is ever guaranteed. A 3-1 lead against the Marlins in 2003 taught me that.