Chicago Cubs: Examining the back end of the starting rotation

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

If the Chicago Cubs want to make the playoffs and make some noise once they are there, they need the back-end of their starting pitching rotation to step up. Currently, Kyle Hendricks and Dan Haren occupy the fourth and fifth spot in the starting rotation. Both players have had their moments this season; however, a lack of consistency has called into question their role moving forward. The Cubs are fortunate to have other options on their roster that could potentially become part of the starting rotation if either Hendricks or Haren continue to struggle. 

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According to ESPN data, the Chicago Cubs collective pitching staff, which includes relievers as well as starters, ranked sixth in the MLB in ERA as of Sept. 9. This statistic is impressive; however, four National League teams that will likely make the playoffs have a better collective ERA than the Chicago Cubs.

If the Cubs want to continue to move up through the ranks of baseball’s finest pitching staffs, Hendricks and Haren (among others) need to perform better. If they don’t, other pitchers on the roster could get a chance to start.

Next: Dan Haren

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

DAN HAREN: 2-2, 4.78 ERA, 1.354 WHIP

In a pre-trade deadline deal, the Chicago Cubs acquired Dan Haren and cash considerations from the Miami Marlins in exchange for minor league prospects Ivan Pineyro and Elliot Soto. The Cubs went after Haren to shore up the back-end of their starting rotation after experimenting with a number of pitchers who all ultimately proved ineffective in this role. On Monday afternoon, Dan Haren recorded his first quality start with the Chicago Cubs. In seven innings of work, he surrendered seven hits but no runs while striking out five in the process. 

Betsided

For Haren, his success on Monday was about damage control. He gave up seven hits, but was able to get out of innings with solid pitches in timely situations. For the first time with his new team, Haren didn’t give up a home run–a significant accomplishment for a pitcher that has given up nine home runs in seven starts with the Cubs. When a statistician averages this number out across nine innings, it comes out to 2.6 home runs per nine innings.

Haren has pitched in seven postseason contests during his career. However, he has been susceptible to giving up the home run ball and pitches to contact(10.0 hits/nine innings). Haren isn’t ideal but he is the best option that the Cubs have moving forward.

Next: Kyle Hendricks

Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

TRAVIS WOOD: 5-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.360 WHIP

In 2013, Travis Wood pitched 32 games as a starter for the Chicago Cubs and made his first and only All-Star team of his career.

In seven games as a starter in 2015, Wood struggled to the tune of a 5.59 ERA. Since making his first pitching appearance as a reliever on May 16, Wood has a 3.49 ERA in 37 appearances. His value comes in his ability to eat up innings in the middle of games and prevent the rest of the bullpen from becoming overextended.

Wood relies on a collection of six pitches to get batters out. Like several other guys on this list, he isn’t a power pitcher and is at his best when he meticulously paints the corners of the plate and keeps hitters guessing with his location. Wood’s experience as a starter makes him the most likely candidate besides Tsuyoshi Wada to fill out the back-end of the rotation if something happens to one of the other starters.

Next: Clayton Richard

Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sport

Clayton Richard: 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.056 WHIP

At the beginning of July, the Chicago Cubs acquired Clayton Richard from the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash considerations. Richard earned three starts with the Cubs, accumulating a 2-0 record and a 3.00 ERA. However, after the Cubs added Dan Haren prior to the July 31 MLB trade deadline, they decided to limit his role to bullpen duty. In 11 appearances, he has a 5.40 ERA.

Despite his imposing frame, Richard isn’t a power pitcher. According to Brooks Baseball, his four seam fastball has an average speed of 92.28 MPH. He only strikes out 4.9 batters per nine innings and relies on a 58.4 percent ground ball rate to get outs. Additionally, according to fangraphs, over 72 percent of contact off of Richards categorized as medium or hard contact.

For the Chicago Cubs, using Richard as a starting pitcher moving forward wouldn’t be an ideal scenario. However, if this situation does present itself, it is encouraging that his ERA as a starter is better than his ERA as a reliever. He started in one postseason game with the Chicago White Sox in 2008. In that game he pitched 6.1 innings and gave up one run.

Next: Tsuyoshi Wada

Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Tsuyoshi Wada: 1-1, 3.73 record, 1.277 WHIP

Prior to an injury that he sustained in June, Tsuyoshi Wada was the Cubs fifth starter in their rotation. In seven starts, he performed well accumulating a 1-1 record to go along with a 3.73 ERA.

After recovering from the injury, he spent significant time in the minor leagues with the Tennessee Smokies and Iowa Cubs. In one game with Tennessee, he gave up four runs in four innings in a disastrous start. However, he settled down with the Iowa Cubs. In 16 starts, he had a 3.95 ERA and  a 4-5 record. When rosters expanded on Sept 1, the Chicago Cubs called Wada back up to the majors. His role with this team moving forward remains a mystery.

Would the Cubs consider giving him a start during the most important part of the season after such a long layoff?

In the Cubs 14-5 win against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 4, Wada pitched one inning in relief and gave up one run. At his best, he was an upgrade to Haren and possibly Hendricks. However, he hasn’t started in a major league game since June 22. Would the Cubs consider giving him a start during the most important part of the season after such a long layoff?

Next: Conclusion

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Of course the Chicago Cubs wish that they could rely on all five of their starters to produce quality starts on a consistent basis. However, that just isn’t the reality of the situation right now. The Cubs are solid through their first three starters, but their fourth and fifth starters have been hit or miss in their starts with the Cubs this season.

The beauty of the Sept. 1 roster expansion was it gave the Chicago Cubs options moving forward. This club has at least three decent options that could fill a starting rotation spot if the opportunity presents itself. For now, the Cubs need to roll with Hendricks and Haren unless either player continues to struggle or gets hurt.

There is some degree of risk to every player mentioned in this slideshow. The Cubs will likely roll with Hendricks and Haren until they prove entirely incapable or an injury ends their season. If one of these circumstances plays out, expect former starter Tsuyoshi Wada to fill out the back-end of the rotation. Travis Wood and Clayton Richard will likely stay in the bullpen although they are half way decent emergency options if it comes to that type of situation.

The Cubs need to shore up the back-end of their starting rotation if they expect to make the playoffs and make a run once they are there. Who will step up?

All stats include performances as starters with the Chicago Cubs this season unless otherwise noted. 

Next: Potential postseason match-ups for the Cubs