Chicago Cubs: Don’t worry about Jon Lester’s slow start

No need to worry – Lester will turn it around soon

In a perfect world, Jon Lester would be 3-0 for the Chicago Cubs and would be overpowering batters – but as Cubs fans know the world is not perfect. Even if the perfect start wasn’t expected, most wouldn’t have expected a 0-2 start with a 6.89 ERA. But that is what we have so far and it isn’t anything anyone should be too worried about. 

Lester didn’t have the full spring schedule that most players had with his spring – being cut short with arm fatigue. Considering he missed roughly three starts – he would be making his first start of the season with his next appearance. He did pitch simulated games and some minor league action, but that isn’t the same.

This is also a hard transition that he is making. He’s moving to a new city with new coaches, new teammates, against new players and in parks that he has little to no experience with. I’m sure he’s also saddled with the pressure of the big contract and being the big name signing for a team that is hanging their hopes on his arm.

Historically Lester is a slower starter and after the first two months his stats turn around and his performances is more of what we expect to see. Looking at his career numbers on fangraphs.com – in 2012 going into June his ERA was 4.78 with opponents batting .268. In 2013 through June his ERA was 4.61 and batters hit .261 against him.

In 2014’s campaign, Lester had a 3.45 ERA in the first two months of the season. Except for 2012 – Lester bounced back very well and had very good seasons.

As the weather gets warmer, so does Lester’s arm. His career ERA has steadily dropped once June rolls around. In June, he has a career 3.18 ERA, July a 3.41, August 3.78, and to finish the season a 3.20 ERA. There is no reason to think this trend won’t continue with the Cubs.

There is also the human element that should be considered. His family still hasn’t made the move to Chicago and won’t until his children’s school year is over. He could be a creature of habit and not having his family around after home games may throw him off some. Not having his family near him and being able to see them will wear down anyone – even a professional baseball pitcher.

All of these factors added up will equal to an expected rough start. Really the starts haven’t been that rough – the numbers are skewed because of the small sample size of work. I expect the same Jon Lester that Boston and Oakland saw last year once June comes. I still see him finishing the season with around 17 wins with a 3.30 ERA.

He’s a leader, a hard-working, and a prideful man – he won’t let this kind of season last. He knows the expectations are high and he didn’t back away from them and I don’t expect to see him start to back away now.

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