Fantasy Baseball: Which Chicago Cubs hold the most value?

Jon Lester

Drafting Jon Lester will be wise – the only question is how long do you wait to draft him?  What scoring system your league uses will go a long way towards answering that.  But with that question aside – what should you expect from the Cubs’ ace this year?

Last year Lester had a solid year – posting a stat line of 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts with Boston and Oakland combined.  Some will question if last year’s numbers are due to the fact he was in the last year of a contract.  Looking at his career numbers you can answer that question fairly easily.  Since he became a full-time starter with Boston in 2008, Lester has averaged 15 wins a season.

Another area of importance to look at for Lester is his record during day games.  He is 34-21, with a 3.21 ERA in 74 day games over his career.  Considering the amount of day games he’ll likely see with the Cubs – this could be really good news.

Looking at his stats and considering all the other variables – to expect Lester to do anything less than contend for the National League Cy Young award would be correct.  To see him flirt with the 20 win mark wouldn’t be out of reach – along with breaking his previous career high of 225 strikeouts in a season.

Next: Closing in for a win

Hector Rondon

Drafting a closer is one of the tougher jobs for a fantasy team owner.  If you miss out on the top-tier closer’s like Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and Kenley Jansen  – than you find yourself holding out until later and pick other positions to fill.  And if you’re like me, you watch the waiver wire throughout the season and watch for struggling closer’s who might lose their job.  So where does Rondon rank among the closer’s in the fantasy world?  It may be higher than you think.

I see the him as a low risk – high reward type closer.  He probably won’t be drafted within the top fifteen closers so he could be a steal for most.  That’s why I say low risk.  With the Cubs expected to be much better this year – there will also be more opportunities to shut the door for the Rondon in the ninth inning.  When he won the closer’s job last year – it started out as a bumpy road of sorts.  Once he was more comfortable he was more consistent – then come August – he was on a roll.  He converted 15 consecutive save opportunities to finish the 2014 season.  So, one would expect him to continue that success – especially with a much improved team.

There is also the story that we Cubs’ fans know all too well – that of Carlos Marmol.  Just when we thought the Cubs had their stopper of the future – inconsistency and the heavy reliance on his slider caused him to lose the job. Will Rondon suffer a similar fate? Probably not – but if Rondon does struggle and starts to show he can’t handle the job – the Cubs do have Jason Motte who I’m sure would love to prove his worth again.

Consider all things to work out well for Rondon – which I do think will happen.  I would expect him to crack the 35-40 save area and establish himself as one of the National League’s more reliable closer’s.  Buy low though – you’ll want to look like a genius to your opponents.

Next: Hard act to follow

Jake Arrieta

This is a tough one.  Arrieta wasn’t drafted at all I’m sure by anyone to start the season.  If you did happen to look into a crystal ball and predict that he would do what he did – you should be buying lottery tickets weekly.  Arrieta was a great story last year for the Cubs.  He turned his career around with the help of Cubs’ pitching coach Chris Bosio. Finishing the season 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts – Arrieta was often times near untouchable.  He only had one bad outing, and that was in Colorado where the Rockies knocked him around over five innings for 13 hits and nine earned runs.

Now that he isn’t the number one starter for the Cubs with Jon Lester aboard – he should have similar success.  I’m just worried that some may expect much of the same dominance that she showed with his low ERA and unreal WHIP numbers.  I do expect him to win more games – probably near 15.  I expect more strikeouts – but the ERA and WHIP I would expect to go up slightly.  A more realistic ERA around three to three and a half – with a WHIP over one and a quarter would still be fantastic numbers.

I think he may be drafted higher in a lot of leagues hoping to catch lightning in a bottle from his success of last year. Then again, maybe a lot of owners are thinking the same and hoping he falls to them.  I just wouldn’t be one of those who picks him to quickly hoping for more instead of expecting similar numbers to last year with a slight increase on the averages.

Next: Finally grown up

Starlin Castro

All of this competition and uncertainty for Starlin Castro may have been the best thing for the young short stop.  From early reports it sounds like he’s finally getting it and growing up.  He’s now a more senior member of the Cubs – which means more responsibility and trust.  I also think Joe Maddon, Dave Martinez, and Manny Ramirez will all work wonders for him.  Last year was a bounce back year at the plate for him.  Batting .292 with 14 home runs and 65 runs batted in – he increased all of his 2014 numbers from 2013 in fewer games while cutting down on his strikeouts.

Before he was injured last year, you could really see that the light went on and Castro was finally starting to put it all together – not just at the plate but on the field with his glove too.  Now with the trade rumors that surrounded him in the off-season and the rumors of two different prospects that could take his spot – he has more to prove now more so than ever before.  I fully expect him to do just that.  Depending on where he bats in the lineup – Castro could see an increase in runs scored or runs batted in.  Maybe a slight increase in home runs – but don’t expect much higher than 15.  I would expect him to be at or even above .300 and a continued approach at the plate that will show he’s cutting down on strikeouts and an increase in walks.

He’ll be drafted within the first 10 short stops – possibly even top five.  Shortstop is a hard position to pick – there isn’t a lot of depth around the league for a player who can hit for average and with some power.  Expect Troy Tulowitzki to go first if he stays healthy this Spring.  After him, Jose Reyes, Ian Desmond and maybe even Elvis Andrus could go ahead of Castro.  Depending on if your league still recognizes Hanley Ramirez as a shortstop – he’ll likely go second hitting in Fenway this year.

Don’t sit and wait too long for Castro to fall.  If you see the names listed above go and your pick is up, unless there is someone at another key position like third or catcher that has fallen in your lap – pick up Castro before you’re stuck with a shortstop that you’re unhappy with.

Next: MVP candidate?

Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo really broke out last year.  Being named an All-Star for the first time was the first of many accomplishments last year for the Cubs’ first baseman.  Finishing the year hitting .286 with 32 home runs and 78 runs batted in – Rizzo would finish tenth in NL MVP voting.  That will change this year.  He has a real chance at contending for the National League MVP this year.  With more weapons for the Cubs around him, he will find himself with more RBI opportunities.

He’s taken the role of the team’s leader – something some players his age might shy away from.  Instead of shying away – he took it and made a statement that made the rest of the NL Central take notice – the Cubs are going to win the NL Central.  That wasn’t just a statement to get headlines – it was a fact that Rizzo truly believes in.  Will the Cubs win the Central? They have as good a shot as anyone . If they do, they’ll need their team MVP to play like one.

Now with a true lead off hitter on the team – the table will be set for more two and three run homers than solo shots. Rizzo will also likely see a lot more runs scored with the possibility of batting ahead of Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant. Speaking of Soler and Bryant – if they both end up being everything that we all hope they will be, pitchers are going to have a hard time deciding who to pitch to.  Rizzo may see more walks, but he could also see a lot more pitches that he can turn on and drive into the gaps or into the stands.

Even though last year was considered a break-out year for Rizzo – this year could be even bigger.  Even with the number of options for any owner to draft at first base, Rizzo should be right up there with the Prince Fielders, Jose Abreu, Jose Batista, and Paul Goldschmidt, right after Miguel Cabrera who will probably be first to go out of the group.

Next: The Cubs' new kids

Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez

There are some questions regarding all three of the Cubs’ hot prospects.  First, does Kris Bryant start the season in the minors?- and if so when does he finally get called up? Second, will Jorge Soler stay healthy and continue his rise to stardom? Third, where does Javier Baez fit with the Cubs and where does he play? There is another question – but I’ll save that for the end.  Answering the first three will come first.

First off –I still think no matter what Bryant does — he’ll start the season in the minors.  The service time issue is too big of a problem that I don’t see the Cubs ignoring – even with the Player’s Union and MLB keeping a close eye on the whole situation.  I also think the Cubs will want to see some extra outfield work done by Bryant to make him even more valuable to the team.  There may be a situation that the Cubs are forced to figure out where to play Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, and Addison Russell in the same line up at the same time.  Having Bryant with the ability and confidence to play in left or right will be huge.  Once he does come up – expect the same that you’ve seen so far in the minors – plenty of power and plenty of home runs.  His bat has been said to be Major League ready from the start – his glove wasn’t quite yet.  While he may not provide your fantasy team this year with all that has been said – in keeper leagues – his value could be as high as anyone in baseball not named Mike Trout.  With the potential of consistently hitting 40 home runs and who knows maybe even at some point getting to the 50 home run plateau – there isn’t much doubt about what this young man can bring to the sport.

Second question – Jorge Soler added muscle, 27 pounds of it to be precise.  Hoping this helps him stay healthy – it also adds to the chances of more home runs and runs batted in for him.  Figuring he’ll probably be slotted at the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup – he’ll have a prime chance to see his fair share of pitches and opportunities to put runs on the board for the Cubs.  I’m sure if Rizzo continues his progress, he’ll be walked more until Soler proves to be as dangerous as we know he can be.  Once he does that, he’ll either be walked more – which will give him opportunities for steals and runs or he’ll be pitched tough which will test his ability to sit and wait for his pitch.  He has been working on his plate discipline – for all of us I hope he is successful with that work.  Outfielders in fantasy baseball are everywhere, you can draft them late if needed, but really good ones who show big power – they are drafted early and are usually guys who carry teams to league championships.  He like Bryant has big time-keeper league value – the only hang up on him will be his durability.

The third question is the toughest one.  Javier Baez has rare qualities – his bat speed is something that doesn’t come around very often.  To have that aspect of your game to be compared to a player like Gary Sheffield is quite the compliment – it’s also a lofty expectation to put on a young player.  I fully expect Baez to start the season in the Minors and it’s probably for the best.  He needs time to gather himself, get his timing right and be ready for his call-up that will happen at some point during the season.  With Manny Ramirez back to help him, that comfort level and confidence might come quicker with their relationship that they had last year.  Finding a place for Baez in the field will be an interesting problem but I fully expect him to be at second or third when he does finally come up.  I also expect his power to be back, but his strike outs will probably follow.  They will go down – but they will still be a problem.  Fantasy wise – if he’s a second baseman – his value is a lot higher where there aren’t as many top hitting second basemen.  Any other position – his value is lower if he doesn’t fix his plate approach.  To have a second baseman who can hit you 30 home runs is huge, even if he can only bat a .240 average.  If he can get his average over .270 with those 30 or more home runs, no matter where he plays, he’ll bring your team exceptional value.

The final question I didn’t list but said I would be this – which one has the better shot at the NL Rookie of the year? Soler needs to stay healthy – if he does, he can win it easily.  Bryant will likely contend but will get a late start on the competition – while he might have more value in the long run than Soler – it just may not be this year that he gets the attention with the awards – but Bryant will get his fair share of attention soon enough.

Next: Could Castillo be due for a position change?