Cubs News: Ranking the NL Central’s First Basemen

Mar 30, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; General view of a base prior to the opening day baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

As we approach Spring Training, we’ll be taking a look at each position, and ranking them from top to bottom. This is purely opinion, and no feelings should be hurt during these rankings.

The first base position in the NL Central this year is an intriguing one. You have a mix of guys that leave a lot of questions in trying to decipher who will be the best. Some of this is potential, some based off of history.

But what is fact is that you have three past All-Stars (one at a different position), another that could have a breakout year and become one and a new face to the division. And while some of these players may platoon, we will try to rank based on who gets the majority of at-bats. If it’s a true platoon situation, we’ll rank the duo as “one”, and compare them against the rest.

So without further ado, we bring to you the rankings for first base in the NL Central.

Next: Coming in at No. 5..

Aug 24, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers right fielder

(8) beats out an infield hit as Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman

(24) fields the throw in the first inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates

With the breakout season of Josh Harrison, Alvarez will find himself at first base in a mostly full-time role. The benefits for himself and the team are enormous, as he was not a consistent fielder and made more than his share of errors at the hot corner (110, seventh in active 3B).

But what he lacks in the field – at least at third – he makes up for at the plate. When playing full-time, Alvarez is more than capable of a 30 home run season, as he’s done twice now (’12 and ’13), and driving in between 80 to 100. The issue for him becomes contact.

While he has a career slugging percentage of .435, his on-base of .307 is directly attributed to his strikeout rate. He led the NL in 2013 with 186, but that was also his All-Star season. So it’s clear that he can be an effective presence, even with the strikeouts.

Finding a spot in the lineup will be one of the deciding factors to his production. In Alvarez’s case, it’s not about where to put him to benefit his numbers, but where to NOT hurt production of others. But even with a position change, he should still be considered a threat at the plate with his power.

2015 Steamer Projections – .242/.316/.447, 24 HR, 71 RBIs, 1.7 WAR

Next: And we enter the Top 3...

Sep 11, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman

(19) watches from the dugout during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park. The Reds won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds

There may not be a player on this list that needs a “good” year more than Joey Votto. The team, which handed him a massive deal and has him signed through 2023 likely agrees. After battling a leg injury last season that limited to 62 games played, Votto hopes to put the worst season of his career behind him.

A career .310 hitter, he saw his average finish at a dreadful .255 in 2014. He still posted a .390 on-base thanks to his ability to draw the walk, but this was a shell of “Votto-matic” that Reds’ fans had come to know.

With the leg injury hindering him more than he may have led on, he left the yard only six times. The power just wasn’t there. He shut it down the first week of July, but his last home run had been all the way back on May 10.

The four-time All-Star has history on his side, as he’s been spectacular for the Reds, winning an MVP and Gold Glove along the way as well. The question will be his health, which I’m indeed questioning – and why he’s at the third spot.

2015 Steamer Projections – .280/.409/.473, 20 HR, 70 RBIs, 4.3 WAR

Next: At No. 2 is....

Oct 14, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman

(32) stretches for the ball to get San Francisco Giants right fielder

(8) out during the ninth inning in game three of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Adams – St. Louis Cardinals

After a breakout 2014, Adams continued to show he could handle the everyday duties at first base for the Cardinals. In 142 games, he nearly mirrored his prior seasons slash line in 32 more games. He hit .288/.321/.457, while lowering his strikeout percentage similar, but taking fewer walks.

The Cardinals expected to see a jump in power from Adams in an everyday role, but he actually fell of by two (17 in ’13 to 15 in ’14), but did a solid job at beating the shift. He’s spent an immense amount of time in the cages this off-season working on his patience, and if that improves he could be poised for a breakout campaign.

Should Adams struggle, as he has hit lefties at only .197 clip in his career – he could find himself in a platoon situation with Mark Reynolds. He’s proven to be a solid first half player, as he hit .329 before the break last year, and almost 80 points better in his career before the All-Star break.

So if Adams does struggle, we may not know until after July.

2015 Steamer Projections – .268/.312/.455, 19 HR, 67 RBIs, 1.5 WAR

Next: Hmm, who could No. 1 be?

Aug 18, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman

(44) hits a solo home run against the New York Mets during the eighth inning of a game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs

Yep. I did. and I stand behind it that at the end of this season, he will prove me right. There are many who question his success of last season. Some through speculation, others through analytics. All fair and valid, same as me saying he’s the best in the division.

Rizzo and Starlin Castro had the spotlight on them entering last season. Both handed long-term deals, then proceeded to fall flat in 2013. Rizzo was up to the challenge, batting .286/.386./.527, with a career-high 32 home runs. But some, as those in this piece, question what kind of hitter he really is. while I do love Sabermetrics, it can sometimes lead to “over analyzing”. As new manager Joe Maddon said, he’ll use his numbers, in combination with his gut feeling.

Pointing to hard contact and medium contact rates as a reason for a projected drop off is where I question metrics a bit. They call it “bad process, dumb luck” for success. This could be because I watched Rizzo on a more regular basis, but because he didn’t square up the ball at the same rate of others can be deceiving. With two strikes, there were countless times he shortened his stroke and put bat on ball.

His BABIP was .311 last season. He makes contact with the ball in the zone at 90.1 percent when in the zone. And it’s still 62.1 percent when the pitch is outside of the zone. While he might not hit line drives at the rate of a Albert Pujols, he gets results. Good hitters find holes.

2015 Steamer Projections – .271/.359/.503, 32 HR, 93 RBIs, 4.7 WAR

Next: In Closing...

Each of these guys have the potential to be very good this year, and for the most part are all legitimate contenders for an All-Star spot. Bouncing back from injuries, avoiding them altogether and providing consistency will reign supreme.

I will of course catch flack for picking Rizzo in the top spot, but I do believe it. I believe he’s going to continue his growth as a hitter, and maybe – just maybe help keep that promise of the Cubs’ winning the division. For your entertainment, a table of their Steamer Projections for 2015.