Why Travis Wood will win the last spot in the Chicago Cubs’ rotation

The Chicago Cubs knew they wanted to improve their starting pitching when this off-season began. We all had hopes, but none of us knew it would end the way it did signing Jon Lester and bringing back Jason Hammel. So in theory, there’s only one spot left in the Cub’s rotation. Who gets it?

I say Travis Wood.

The support around Wood has diminished quickly since his All-Star season of two years ago. And while I don’t think he will repeat that 3.11 ERA from 2013, I think he can fall in line perfect as the fifth man in the Cubs’ rotation.

Wood’s Steamer projections have him at a 9-10 record, with 156 innings and a 4.39 ERA. I think slotted in the No. 5 spot, these would be acceptable numbers. Considering that Edwin Jackson has been the least effective starter over the past two seasons, getting a break-even pitcher in wins and losses would be a victory.

His BABIP (Avg. on balls in play) jumped from .248 in 2013 to .320 in 2014, a drastic increase. Add to that his left on base percentage dropped from his major league high of 77.4 down to 66.5. Translation? The balls they hit dropped, and in turn he allowed more runners to come around.

The key for Wood in 2013 was his slider and changeup. He was able to get ahead of hitters, and then use the two to his advantage to keep hitters off-balance. Because of his inability to locate the strike zone with the frequency he did in 2013, the percentage of throwing his slider went from 10.3 to 7.8. Meanwhile, his fastball went from 36.3 to 43.1.

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So all of this ties together for an obvious conclusion. Wood had a terrible year. But I don’t believe he’s washed-up, nor should the Cubs simply package him in a deal to get rid of him. Having another effective lefty in the rotation would be very beneficial. And while Miguel Montero wasn’t acquired specifically for Wood, he was brought in to help get the Cubs’ staff some of these calls that they didn’t get last year.

The ability to frame pitches becomes critical when you look at the difference between getting ahead 0-1 compared to behind. Pitch selection changes, and in-turn the balls in play goes up. Wood still had 13 quality starts in 31 appearances. But when he was bad, he was REAL bad, allowing five or more runs seven times. Take those seven starts out and Wood posts a 3.27 ERA.

I realize that’s part of the game, bad outings. But my defense of Wood winning the last spot is because he wasn’t terrible all year, just a handful of very terrible games. I think as a veteran, with the addition of Montero, Wood turns the corner in spring training and seizes the last rotation spot.

Thoughts? Comments? We’d love to hear them!

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