Kris Bryant tops Fangraphs’ list of 2015 Cubs’ top rookies

Mar 10, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant prior to the game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, FanGraphs released its breakdown of the top five Chicago Cubs prospects based on projected wins above replacement (WAR), as well as an organization-wide discussion of the talent in the minors, which we will talk about later today in a separate post.

With the Wrigley Field renovation – a major key to the organization turning a corner financially – underway, the arrival of the club’s young talent, including the already-promoted Javier Baez and Jorge Soler, and others including Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant, seems to be one of the final steps left in a multi-year rebuilding effort that, with the addition of several big league pieces this offseason, could come to a head as early as the 2015 campaign.

The piece by FanGraphs will be discussed here, but the entire article, which is linked above, is definitely worth a read for anyone who follows the Cubs.

The article begins by making note of two very important factors: One, this is a list of rookie-eligible players who are closest to contributing at the big league level, not a top prospect list. Second, the likelihood of whether or not each of these individuals will see Chicago in 2015 was not taken into account.

Here’s the list:

1. Kris Bryant, 3B
2. Jorge Soler, OF
3. Addison Russell, SS
4. Arodys Vizcaino, SP
5. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF

Jun 15, 2013; Omaha, NE, USA; Indiana Hoosiers runner Kyle Schwarber (10) is tagged out in the third inning by the Louisville Cardinals catcher Shane Crain (41) during the College World Series game at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF

Now, working backward, we begin with Schwarber, the Cubs’ first-round pick from the June draft out of Indiana University. While his future behind the plate remains a question, to some, for the time being, he is being groomed primarily as a backstop within the Chicago farm system.

Calculating a projection for Schwarber presents some difficulties insofar as (a) he’s clearly more valuable at catcher than left field, presuming he’s an average defender at both, but also (b) he’s probably not an average defensive catcher. His offensive profile, complemented by the benefit of a catcher’s positional adjustment, would conspire to create an impressive major leaguer.

Recently, Baseball America, which ranked the Cubs’ 2014 draft as the fourth-best amongst all 30 big league clubs, named Schwarber as the best pure hitter and best pure power hitter from this year’s draft class, after many scratched their heads after Chicago selected him fourth overall. He did not disappoint, hitting a collective .344 with a .428 on-base percentage across 72 games with short-season Class-A Boise, Class-A Kane County and Class-A Advanced Daytona. In those 72 games, he blasted 18 home runs and drove in 53 runs.

He is set to begin next season with either the Cubs’ new Class-A Advanced affiliate in Myrtle Beach or Double-A Tennessee.

Sep 10, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Chicago Cubs pitcher Arodys Vizcaino (47) throws against the Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Toronto defeated Chicago 11-1. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

4. Arodys Vizcaino, SP

The hard-throwing right-hander was acquired from the Atlanta Braves two years ago, but has yet to reach the big leagues for an extended period of time with the Cubs. He did, however, make five appearances with Chicago in 2014, allowing three earned on five hits, while walking three and striking out four across the five innings of work.

Vizcaino’s numbers here are prorated to a generic starter’s (as opposed to reliever’s) workload — and, indeed, Vizcaino appears to have the necessary repertoire to have success as a starting pitcher. What he’s lacked in recent years is the requisite health, however — the finer points of which it’s impossible for a projection system to integrate entirely.

The article goes on to say that several other scenarios outside of Vizcaino being healthy and ready to handle a full-time starting gig in 2015 are more likely, but in that role, he could be very valuable to the Cubs – a team with several question marks in its rotation heading into next season.

In 2014, the 23-year-old right-hander, who just two years ago was ranked as the 40th-best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, split 40 appearances between Class-A Advanced Daytona, Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, finishing the year with a 3.51 ERA and 9.2 SO/9. He allowed 38 hits in 41 innings of work, most of which came with Tennessee and Iowa.

Back in 2011, his only other big league season to-date, Vizcaino went 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.442 WHIP and 3.54 FIP across 17 1/3 innings of work with Atlanta, where he was once a highly-touted arm in the Braves system.

Oct. 14, 2014; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell plays for the Mesa Solar Sox during an Arizona Fall League game against the Scottsdale Scorpions at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

3. Addison Russell, SS

Acquired in the blockbuster trade that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland Athletics in early July, Russell, who was the A’s top prospect prior to the deal, came to Chicago – adding to an already strong list of middle infield prospects that has proved to be attractive trade chips for the Cubs of late.

It’s possible that Russell won’t even make his major-league debut this season — or, not until September roster expansion, at least. Nevertheless, the projections indicate that, were he to receive a promotion to the parent club, that he’d produce wins at something like a league-average rate. The plate-discipline profile isn’t ideal at the moment, putting more pressure on the quality of Russell’s contact, but that’s also a concern mitigated by Russell’s positional adjustment and — so far as the future is concerned — how he’s turning only 21 years old.

This season, Russell split time between Class-A Advanced and Double-A – all of his time post-trade coming with the Cubs’ Double-A club in Tennessee. In a combined 68 games, the soon-to-be 21-year-old batted .295/.350/.508 with 13 home runs, 14 doubles and 45 RBIs. He also struck out 49 times in 280 plate appearances on the year.

Although he is off to a slow start in the Arizona Fall League, Russell could see Wrigley next year – or he could eventually turn into a trade asset – although one thing appears certain. He’s nearing big league-ready and whichever team controls him could very well have one of the game’s best young middle infielders.

Sep 15, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler hits a single against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

2. Jorge Soler, OF

In the past several seasons, Soler has oftentimes been overshadowed by the exploits of Javier Baez and, more recently, Kris Bryant. However, after heading into the 2014 season ranked as the 41st-best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, the 22-year-old put it all together at both the minor league and big league level, providing consistent offensive production in a Cubs lineup that was sporadic all season long.

In Bryant, Russell, and Soler, the Cubs have a striking collection of prospects who offer not just substantial future, but also compelling present, value. According to Steamer’s computer math, the Cubs could extract nearly eight wins from that triumvirate over a full major-league season in 2015 — more than half, that figure, than the WAR total produced collectively by the club’s batters in 2014.

Soler began the year with the Rookie-Level club, appearing in eight games before making the jump to Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. In 62 games between the three levels, the athletic outfielder did it all at the plate, batting .340/.432/.700 with 15 home runs, 23 doubles and 57 RBIs. Once he was promoted to Chicago, he picked up right where he left off while manning right field for the Cubs.

In 97 plate appearances, Soler batted .292/.330/.573, hitting five home runs and driving in 20 runs. He regularly came up with big hits for the team and Ricky Renteria will be counting on his young corner outfielder heavily heading into the 2015 season, when he will likely have to make adjustments as pitchers become more familiar with him.