Fantasy Perspective: Busts

I looked at the players to be targeted in an article yesterday and today we will go with busts. I look at stats from last year that seem to be too high or players that have produced their whole careers, but are on the decline.

Michael Pineda

I featured his trade counterpart yesterday as someone to target. Today, I am saying stay away from Pineda. He had one good season and it wasn’t even a full season. He pitched very well until July and August and then his ERA skyrocketed. The Yankees make a lot of moves for pitchers and often times the players just can’t handle New York (Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, and Rafael Soriano). I think Pineda will get bitten by the same bug and he wasn’t THAT good to begin with.

Matt Latos

Latos didn’t have a great season last year and the Reds gave up way too much to get him. He is making a move from the best pitcher’s ballpark in the league to one of the worst. He is going to have a lot of pressure on him to be the ace, and I don’t think he can live up. He had one great year in 2010, but as a fantasy owner, you want production for this year.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio was traded in the offseason, just like the previous two. I think he will have a good campaign, but not a great one. His WHIP is way too high and it is worse because he moved from roomy Oakland. His WHIP will catch up to him this year. He will not have an awful year, but he won’t be the ace that the Nationals traded for and he won’t be the ace that people will draft him to be.

Desmond Jennings

Jennings has gotten a lot of praise from people. This is why he is overvalued. He is a good player and I think he will have a good season, but people will pay for his limited play last season. He will eventually be a great player, but it will be a couple of years. He had a hot start last season and then struggled in September. People will overpay for Jennings, don’t be that person.

Michael Morse

He had a big season last year so now he is going to be high on people’s draft boards. He had a bad walk to strikeout ratio and en even worse on base percentage. He is not going to tank this season, but I don’t think he will put up the numbers he did last season.

Kevin Youkilis

Youk is a great hitter and a player that all teams would like to have, but in fantasy you don’t get credit for intangibles. He gets hurt all the time and is too injury prone to have on your team, especially in head to head. He is going to be a solid third basemen, but he won’t put up the numbers he did in 2008. If you can get him late, then do it; otherwise, don’t waste the pick.

These guys are not all going to be awful and fall off the radar, but they are also not going to produce as high as they should. When you draft someone in round 3, you need to get round 3 production. These guys won’t give you that.

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