Optimism on Silva

It is really, really hard to be optimistic that Carlos Silva will be anything less than a disappointment should he in fact be given the fifth starting job. That moves makes sense if it makes it easier for the Cubs to trade him, but that is just about the only way his spring numbers can be ignored enough for him to join the staff.

That said, there are a few slivers of good news buried in this. While optimism is probably too strong a word, I think ordering an industrial size bottle of antacid tablets would be just a touch premature. He might not be as big a disaster as I think we are all expecting.

First of all, his ratio of ground ball outs to fly ball outs (GO/AO) is under 1.00 this spring. In fact, it was under 1.00 last spring as well. When you look at his regular season numbers, though, he has never finished with a GO/AO under 1.00 and last season finished at 1.33. If we look at his ground ball out numbers by game last season, ground balls and pitching well went together. In a game in which he got at least 10 grounders, he gave up at most three runs. During the regular season he gets the ground ball, but not in spring training. This could be an effect of the altitude in Arizona, or of just needing some more work to get his pitches to break correctly. If we assume, then, that his GO/AO will get healthier when he leaves Arizona like it did last season, we can at least hope that his regular season numbers will approach his 2010 performance.

Silva is a horrible spring training pitcher. His career batting average against in the spring is .359, and that includes his days with Minnesota. This year’s landmark .483 performance… yes, that’s a batting average against, not a slugging percentage against… is by far the worst he has ever delivered. However, he has never finished a season with a BAA higher than .330. What’s more, the seasons in which he has managed to get his BAA under .300 at all have been some of his better seasons. I’m not sure if Silva can lower his BAA by that much once the season starts, but there is every reason to expect he will lower it somewhat. I just can’t believe that anyone can maintain a BAA of nearly .500 at any level of professional baseball.

And finally, from a more cynical standpoint, starting Silva might be the best thing the Cubs can do to help their defense. The best way for Castro, Colvin, Ramirez, and the other defenders who have had some lapses this spring to get better is simply by practice. With Silva surrendering an absolutely terrifying 23 hits per nine innings, the Cubs defense should get in a lot of work in the two or three innings he manages to stay in the games he starts. All that extra practice is bound to payoff in the long run.