Season Preview: Forecasting The Season

• Joe’s Forecast

SEASON PREVIEW

With two weeks left in Spring Training, much of the focus surrounding
the Cubs involves the position and roster spot battles. The jobs and
candidates have been well discussed here on Cubbies Crib so far in
March, but I also believe the 25 man roster may be a work in progress
through the regular season as well, regardless of whether the Cubs are
in contention or not. So without further delay, below are some roster
situations and moves to keep an eye on for the 2011 season.

LEAD OFF HITTER

I figured that I would get the biggest question and hole out of the
way first, especially since there is still no clear cut answer to the
question. Besides, it is only fitting that I start off the review with
the top of the batting order right? Kosuke Fukudome so far appears to
be the square peg manager Mike Quade is trying to stuff into the round
hole that is the lead off spot. Entering his fourth year with the
Cubs, by now we are all familiar with the fact that the Japanese
import will not hit for a high average, in addition to not being able
to play 162 games without disappearing for months offensively. But it
is the fact that square pegs are the only options you will find on the
current roster that has Quade trying to make this work with Fukudome.
At least the outfielder does possess a good eye for the strike zone
while also providing somewhat of a base stealing threat.

Despite the hole at the top, the Cubs have had a knack for scoring
first inning runs. So do not be surprised if Fukudome gets the
majority of the lead off at bats in April. The remaining list of
square pegs include Blake DeWitt, Fernando Perez, Jeff Baker
(especially against left handed pitchers), and if he makes the team,
Reed Johnson. But if the Cubs have a disastrous start to the 2011
season, the emergency option may be to move Marlon Byrd into the lead
off spot. I would hate to see him moved out from the three hole where
he would look most comfortable in this current line up, but he would
provide the better batting average over the names already mentioned. I
do not see Darwin Barney being the answer early in the season for the
same reasons the coaching staff and front office hesitate to put
Starlin Castro in the top spot for an entire season.

So again, we are back to where we started with a question that
currently has no answer.

BACK END OF THE ROTATION

Those of you who regularly read my post game reviews are going to get
sick of me repeating this, but Randy Wells has locked up the fourth
starter spot. And despite his sophomore slump, I expect a season that
will mirror that of his rookie year, and he will not lose his rotation
spot in 2011 unless Jim Hendry trades for two veteran aces in July to
boost the team’s playoff push.

That leaves the 5th starter as being the question mark, and despite
the decision not being made yet, I believe it will be awarded to
either Andrew Cashner or Braden Looper. Cashner is the one the
organization desperately wants to anoint for the job, but the young
pitcher has not quite done enough this Spring to warrant the job at
this point. However I have a gut feeling that his audition will
continue into the regular season and for the month of April. The worst
case scenario is that he struggles and has to be moved back into the
bullpen. Bruce Levine believes the Cubs would be ok with starting the
season with Carlos Silva in the bullpen, and in theory it would be
easier to move the veteran from the bullpen into the starting role
versus moving a young pitcher like Cashner from the pen to the
rotation.

Unless Cashner has a break out season as a starting pitcher, I also
see the 5th starter spot being a revolving door through the end of
June, at which point we could see Jim Hendry swing a deal for another
starting pitcher if the team is in contention. I only see prospects
like Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson getting call ups if the team is
out of the playoff picture by July, or as extra arms in September.

SECOND BASE

This is another area that is a question mark since Blake DeWitt has
not seized the job so far this Spring. I like Jeff Baker, but he is
more of a super sub like Mark DeRosa than a starter, and preferably
only against left handed pitchers. However, unlike the lead off spot,
this is an area of less concern offensively as the second baseman can
be hidden in the lineup somewhat in the 8th spot. That is of course if
manager Quade is not reduced to the nightmare of having to use the
second baseman as the lead off hitter. So in my opinion, at worst we
should go with the best defensive glove at second base. Judging from
what we have seen so far this Spring, that could easily be Darwin
Barney by May or June, assuming a trade is not made.

I would not mind seeing a trade for Michael Young, whether it is
before Opening day (unlikely) or at some point during the regular
season, but only if it involves a swap of bad contracts (ie Alfonso
Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Carlos Silva) and involves no top prospects
(ie Andrew Cashner). These parameters make a deal happening highly
unlikely at this point thanks to the high asking price of the Rangers,
but Young would be a nice option at second base and lead off over the
in-house options the Cubs have so far.

OUTFIELD REGULARS

As exciting as it was to see Tyler Colvin have a bit of a break out
season in 2010, he still has some work to do to show that he deserves
to be a starting outfielder. Cubs fans want to see him start over
Fukudome in right field, but it is more because of Fukudome’s
offensive short comings than it is of Colvin’s performance at the
Major League level. What will make it even harder for Colvin to get at
bats is when Fukudome is in the line up as the default lead off
option. If you see Byrd moved into the lead off spot, then I believe
you will see more of a true platoon in right field in terms of playing
time.

As much as Cubs fans may rue the idea, Alfonso Soriano is here to stay
unless he can be traded away for Michael Young. The only other bad
contract out there large enough to match Soriano’s is that of Barry
Zito, so it is highly unlikely that we will see the outfield wall
fearing left fielder leave this season. The good news is that Soriano
has had a good Spring and was quoted as saying he is feeling as
healthy has ever since coming to Chicago, and as readers may recall
from my bold predictions, I think he will hit for 30 plus home runs in
2011.

FIFTH OUTFIELD SPOT

I am going to go with Reed Johnson over Fernando Perez. This is
strictly based on the fact that Johnson is a non roster invitee that
would get a league minimum salary over the younger Perez who still has
an option available that allows him to be sent down to the minors
without being exposed to waivers. Perez can work on getting back in
the groove as a switch hitter, something he ditched last season while
trying to recover from a wrist injury. The veteran Johnson would be
easier to cut if he does not pan out during the regular season, as
opposed to having to scramble to find a player to replace Perez on the
roster if he struggles early in the season. As a veteran that has the
respect of Hendry, Johnson would be allowed to look to hook on with
another team if he did not make the Cubs out of camp. Johnson is also
used to being a part time player, so the limited at bats and playing
time would not affect his performance as much as a younger player, and
his former teammates still on the roster from his last stop in Chicago
already know of the good qualities he brings to the clubhouse
atmosphere. The only down side to going with Johnson is that a player
would have to be removed from the 40 man roster to make space for him.
Both Johnson and Perez have not exactly separated themselves from one
other with their performances so far this Spring, so this is where I
stand.

BACK UP CATCHER

This has been quite a hot topic for Cubbies Crib readers the last few
weeks. As we all know, Koyie Hill has been embarrassing at the plate
so far this Spring. What has not helped his cause is the great Spring
offensively that Wellington Castillo has had. But for a back up
catcher, that is the last thing you are looking for when compared to
defense and comfort with the pitching staff. I would love a little
more offensive out of Hill too, but at this point he is my back up
catcher coming out of Spring. In the long term picture, Castillo would
be better served with a starting role in the minors rather than
getting limited at bats as a back up catcher in the Majors. I also
believe that with the limited budget Hendry has had to work with this
offseason, simply cutting Hill and his $850,000 salary for 2011 is not
an option. At this point I only see Castillo coming up if Soto gets
hurt or if Hill loses the defensive edge he has on the catching
prospect over the course of the regular season.

TRADING VETERANS

If the Cubs season has gone south to the point of no return by
mid-June, we are likely to see some veterans traded away for some
prospects. At the top of the list would be Aramis Ramirez, who is in a
contract year, assuming he can stay healthy and has a decent year
offensively. Quade’s first impression of Josh Vitters this Spring was
that the kid can handle defense at third base, which was one of the
concerns regarding the prospect’s chances of making it to the Majors,
and in a lost season, it would be a perfect opportunity to see if the
rookie can play at the MLB level. Marlon Byrd is also an option
considering he is a quality player compared to what he is earning
salary wise, even though he still has one year left on his deal after
2011. This would also open up a spot to play Colvin full time in the
OF, or even make way for Perez or Brett Jackson if the Cubs can deal
away Fukudome as well.

GENERAL MANAGER

This could be a make or break year for Jim Hendry, but that mostly
depends on what measuring stick Tom Ricketts is using to evaluate the
general manager. If it is judged on the success, or lack there of, at
Wrigley Field, another season out of contention early with the
Friendly Confines half empty by late August will see the end of the
man who can at least say he took the Cubs to three post seasons, even
if they ended in massive disappointment. On the other hand, if
Ricketts stays in line with his public desire to build the team up
from the ground up, Hendry’s job may be more secure as it would only
be fair to give him another year to see how prospects who are on the
edge of making it to Wrigley, like Brett and Jay Jackson, Carpenter,
and Vitters, perform in 2012.