Starting James Russell

The very early accounts from the Cubs’ spring training complex indicate that James Russell will be given every opportunity to win a starting job. That creates some very interesting questions for the Cubs, particularly given that Andrew Cashner is also going to be given every opportunity and that Casey Coleman is in the mix. If two of those guys beat out Wells and Silva, would the Cubs really go into a season with two starters who are little more than rookies? Or would it be better to say that Wells and Silva are competing for the fourth slot, and Russell, Cashner, and Coleman are competing for the fifth slot. The talk from the Cubs’ camp right now seems to suggest that they Cubs want both Cashner and Russell starting for the Cubs, sending Coleman and Wells back to Iowa (if they aren’t traded). So, in light of that, Cashner has received plenty of much deserved attention as a guy with the potential to be the ace of a staff or a closer down the road. What about Russell though? What can the Cubs expect from him?

James Russell is the only left handed pitcher currently on the roster with a chance to start for the Cubs in 2011. He has the potential to throw four pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup). Last season none of those pitches looked like anything extra special, but he has shown he can throw them all for strikes. He doesn’t through especially hard, but most of what he does throw finds the plate. That’s the good news.

The bad news is he is more of a fly ball pitcher. Don’t be surprised if Soriano gets some time off when Russell pitches. As a fly ball pitcher without overpowering stuff, he is prone to the long ball. As a reliever he gave up about 2 per 9 innings. If he holds that pace as a starter, we can expect him to give up about four home runs for every three starts. That’s not good, but if he can hold his walk rate down, its not terrible either. His outfield defense will be important to his success. Four of the Cubs five outfielders should be pretty good defensively, and that should work in his favor.

For Russell to wrack up many wins the Cubs offense will have to produce. Since the Cubs offense did virtually nothing in the second half of last season and all their offensive additions come with major question marks, it is far from given that the offense this season will be able to put up the 4+ runs a game that Russell is likely to need in order to net wins. Until the Cubs offense proves it can produce on a consistent basis, I’d hesitate to project Russell into anything better than a 8-15 record as a starter, assuming he takes a job in the spring and holds it all year. The good news is that 8-15 record could come with an ERA around 4.00 and about 180 strikeouts (6 per starts over 30 starts). If the Cubs can give him consistent run support, he could easily win 12+ games. He doesn’t like the kind of pitcher who will regularly win a game on his own, but he does look like the type of pitcher who will keep the Cubs in most of the games he pitches.

First, of course, he as to win the starting job. That battle begins in a few days when spring training games start up.