How The Cubs Will Succeed?

As we head into the days of Spring Training, many national columnists will begin to look at each team and project them for the upcoming season. Depending on who you read, the Cubs will either be one of the the bottom dwellers of the National League Central this year, or the Cubs will be in the middle of the division race throughout the season. Regardless of how you feel about the 2011 Chicago Cubs, Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago points out four keys that will determine the Cubs success in 2011.

If the Cubs are to be successful in 2011, Levine feels they will need both Carlos Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez to return to being two of the top players for their respective positions; as well as receive quality production from the bullpen and the outfield.

In a lot of ways, this is probably a make or break year for Carlos Zambrano. During the 2010 season, there was a point where it was believed that the Chicago Cubs had reached their breaking point with the temperamental pitcher. Those feelings were resulting from an altercation that Zambrano had with essentially the entire team during the June 25th game when the Cubs were playing the Chicago White Sox. The Cubs suspended Zambrano indefinitely after that blowup. Once Zambrano returned from his suspension in early August, he showed that he is still capable of being an elite starting pitcher. Zambrano finished the season with a record of 4-0 in the month of September with an ERA of 0.78.

However, I have seen this act way too many times before from Zambrano. It always seems that right when the Cubs are pondering the decision to part ways with Zambrano, he gives them reasons to hold out hope. But, as has happened in the past, I fear that Zambrano will not be able to maintain his cool demeanor for the entire season. It is when Zambrano loses his demeanor and becomes The Incredible Hulk that his on the field production declines. But with the emergence of Ryan Dempster over the past couple of seasons and the acquisition of Matt Garza, Zambrano -for once- will not be looked upon as “the ace” of the Cubs rotation. That could in itself, could reason enough for Zambrano to return to his once dominant form.

Like Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez is also going to have to return to form in order for the Cubs to be in contention during the 2011 season. As I mentioned a few days ago, Ramirez is the Key to the Cubs offense. The Chicago Cubs hold the contract option on Ramirez for the 2012 season, so Jim Hendry and the rest of the front office will probably watch Ramirez closely this season. If Ramirez shows that he is capable of still being an effective run producer, then I would not be surprised to see the Cubs pick up his option for the 2012 season. But if Ramirez shows the same inconsistencies that he did last season, then his days with the Cubs will be numbered.

Speaking of inconsistencies, the Chicago Cubs bullpen would fall under that category for the 2010 season. After looking like one of the weaknesses for the Cubs at the beginning of the 2010 season, over time, the Cubs bullpen became one of the strong points of the Cubs. A lot of their success, in my opinion, stems from Mike Quade. Unlike Lou Piniella, Quade showed confidence in the bullpen and they responded strongly. As long as Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Sean Marshall manage to stay healthy, the bullpen should be one of the strong suit’s of the 2011 Cubs.  We also may see Jay Jackson, Scott Maine, and Chris Carpenter at some point in the Cubs bullpen this season.

The Chicago Cubs will also need to have their outfield produce more runs than they’ve had in recent seasons. The addition of Marlon Byrd solidified the defense in the outfield, but Byrd’s run productions was non-existent during the second half of the season.  Tyler Colvin figures to be counted on this season as one of the teams leading run producers, after a rookie season in where he hit 20 home runs. Colvin will be an everyday player, as he figures to rotate between the two corner outfield spots all season. This will be an interesting season for Soriano, as I think if he gets off to a slow start Mike Quade would not be afraid to take him out of the lineup. Although with that said, the Cubs still will be dependent on Soriano to hit around .270 with 25 to 30 home runs.

To be honest, I think all these things are completely possible. While I have hard time trusting Zambrano anymore, I think he should be better in a role where there is not as much pressure on him. A healthy Aramis Ramirez is usually a very good Aramis Ramirez. In the second half of last season, Ramirez proved that he was healthy due to his increased production.  Barring any type of injury, the Cubs bullpen should be able to keep the Cubs in most of the games they play. If Tyler Colvin continues his success from last season, then the outfield will definitely show improved run production, which would go a long way in improving the Cubs offense from last season.